Strange to see the replies to @bot_2024. Some insist 2024 could be an R+2 year, but then dismiss the possibility of a D+10 year in the same breath. But both basically consist of parties getting electoral reversion with one demographic while accelerating their gains with another.
There's more evidence for Hispanics reverting than there is for white suburbanites doing so, but it's still not prudent for Democrats to toss Hispanic reversion around as a given. It's not! That's why Biden's approval rating staying high with Hispanic voters is so important.
With regards to white suburbanites and the GOP, I honestly don't think the GOP has shown that they're intent on doing anything but doubling down on the Trump electoral strategy any time soon. So no, I don't find that scenario likely right now unless they nominate Charlie Baker.
Related: there is absolutely no reason to expect Miami-Dade to go back to D+20 in 2022. If you say "past isn't predictive" with respect to suburbanites not reverting, the same does hold for Cuban voters in Miami.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
