Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

@Noahpinion's latest substack illustrates an important general lesson for how 🇺🇸 approaches "Great Power Competition" w/ 🇨🇳: don't ignore "small states"

[THREAD]
noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-with-vi…

Noah's article focuses on 🇺🇸-🇻🇳 relations, directly comparing 🇻🇳 to the major regional powers in the "Quad": 🇮🇳🇯🇵🇦🇺 (+🇺🇸)
cnn.com/2021/03/11/asi…

Sure the Quad is important, but 🇨🇳 is also already in rivalry (🇦🇺), a simmering territorial dispute (🇯🇵), or full-on conflict (🇮🇳) with each of those members.

As major regional powers, they are all "billiard balls" (to borrow from Wolfers) who will keep bumping into one another (as major powers are apt to do)
amazon.com/Discord-Collab…

As such these states are unlikely to fully align with 🇨🇳...or fully align with one another: major regional powers like to keep other major regional powers at arms length.

Need evidence for this claim? See 🇬🇧's historically lukewarm participation in European Integration.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10…

Of course, 🇺🇸 -- as an external power -- should continue to support the formal alliances it has with two of the three quad members: 🇯🇵 (via the 1952 Security Treaty) & 🇦🇺 (via the 1951 ANZUS pact).

And 🇺🇸continue down the road of building up its "special relationship"/strategic partnership/etc with 🇮🇳
indianexpress.com/article/explai…

But it is with the "small states" of that regional influence will be gained: it's where the "action is" in international politics.
uwapress.uw.edu/book/978029598…

Building relations with the small states in the region needs to be the focus of 🇺🇸 policy towards, whether with 🇻🇳 or other states.
routledge.com/Small-States-a…

Indeed, building relations with smaller states, in and out of the region, appears to be a focus of 🇨🇳 policy.

Think of the RCEP agreement: a massive economic agreement that was an @ASEAN led initiative embraced by 🇨🇳
brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…

While the economic impact of RCEP remains to be seen, its creation illustrates why pulling out the TPP negotiations was a geopolitical and diplomatic "own goal" by 🇺🇸
cnbc.com/2020/12/08/tpp…

Think of 🇨🇳's Belt and Road Initiative: Currying favor with smaller states appears to have been a focus of the policy...
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

...though that initiative seems to be failing/drying up/winding down/sputtering
rhg.com/research/bri-d…

Think of 🇨🇳's "vaccine diplomacy" efforts...
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

...though that is also running into issues.
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-…

So Noah is spot on: the focus of 🇺🇸policy in the region shouldn't be "The Quad" -- they'll "balance" 🇨🇳regardless -- but on 🇻🇳, the rest of @ASEAN, and other small states.

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