1. What's so special about mRNA vaccines? A thread

Viruses (and all living things) are made of proteins. Our acquired immune system works by identifying one of the proteins of a foreign invader, and producing antibodies against that specific protein
2. An autoimmune disease is when our body mistakenly identifies one of our own proteins as foreign, and produces antibodies against it
3. Until now, all vaccines were made from weakened or dead viruses, or related viruses that confer cross-immunity. Cross immunity can occur because related viruses often share proteins. Antibodies against a protein give you immunity from all viruses that share that protein
4. There are many potential problems with traditional vaccines. One problem is that weakened, dead, or related viruses might be harmful. Another is that viruses are very complicated (even though they are the simplest forms of life) and are made of a lot of proteins
5. With traditional vaccines, there is no guarantee that the body will produce antibodies against a good protein. It might choose a protein that's similar to one of yours, causing an autoimmune disease, or one that's not very important, that the virus can easily mutate around
6. The new mRNA vaccines bypass all of these problems. These vaccines produce a specific, carefully-chosen protein, not the whole virus.

Normally, your body makes proteins by using your DNA to create mRNA, and sending the mRNA to ribosomes, where the proteins are made
7. The way that viruses work is to produce their own mRNA, and send *that* to your ribosomes, which make copies of the virus, hijacking your protein-producing mechanism for their own purposes
8. The new mRNA vaccines do something similar. They also hijack your protein-producing mechanism, but not to produce whole viruses that can infect you. They only produce that one well-chosen protein (or a few) that we want you to produce antibodies against
9. In the case of covid, the mRNA vaccines target the "spike" protein. This protein produces the spikes that covid needs to attach to your cells. Without it, covid can't infect you. It's not easy to mutate around this protein - any mutation will likely produce ineffective spikes
10. If, by chance, a covid mutation happens to find another effective spike protein, it will be easy to add that protein to the vaccine, vaccinating against both forms of the virus
11. So, mRNA vaccines are a way to quickly and easily produce very effective, very targeted, and very safe vaccines, theoretically at will. We are already working on new ones, for example AIDS (above) and malaria
12. Eventually, in the very-concievable future, we will be able to produce vaccines so effectively, and so fast, that we can target a disease that infects only a single person - cancer. (Cancer is a mutation of one of your own cells, each one is different)
13. Now, I must end with one equivocation. I am a follower of @nntaleb and am very conscious of the problem of unknown unknows. This is new technology, and we have no experience with its long-term effects
14. Theoretically, there are no known problems, and it's clear that it's safe in the short term - hundreds of millions have already been vaccinated with very few major side effects
15. But we will only really know the long term when we get there. You never know when there might be a Black Swan

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More from @davidboxenhorn

29 Apr
The mRNA technology that created the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines has been around for a while. Why didn't we use it until now?

sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/v…
"Grant reviewers... deemed the plan 'outstanding.' But they gave the proposal a low priority score, dooming its bid for funding. 'The significance for developing a pan-coronavirus vaccine may not be high,' they wrote, apparently unconvinced that the viruses pose a global threat."
We will get a pancoronavirus vaccine, and it will not be in the far-distant future, either. We have the technology now (assuming no unexpected negative side effects of mRNA vaccines - so far there are none)
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
The birth of Israel, as told by Ezekiel 16:4-6
וּמוֹלְדוֹתַיִךְ, בְּיוֹם הוּלֶּדֶת אוֹתָךְ לֹא-כָרַּת שָׁרֵּךְ, וּבְמַיִם לֹא-רֻחַצְתְּ לְמִשְׁעִי, וְהָמְלֵחַ לֹא הֻמְלַחַתְּ, וְהָחְתֵּל לֹא חֻתָּלְתְּ
And when you were born, on the day of your birth they didn't cut the umbilical cord, and didn't wash you with water to clean you, and at the salting you weren't salted, and at the swaddling you weren't swaddled
Read 7 tweets
10 Jan
1. The death of Silicon Valley, a thread

How did Silicon Valley die? It was killed by the internet. I will explain.

Yesterday, my friend IRL asked me "Where are good old days when techies were libertarians"

@naval
@ScottAdamsSays
@nntaleb
@normonics

2. In the "good old days" Silicon Valley was about understanding technology. Silicon, to be precise. These were people who had to understand quantum mechanics, who had to build the near-miraculous devices that we now take for granted, and they had to work
3. Now, I love libertarians, and I share much of their political philosophy. But you have to be socially naive to believe that it has a chance in a real society. In those days, Silicon Valley was not a real society. It was populated by people who understood quantum mechanics
Read 13 tweets
10 Nov 20
1. For years I have been astounded at the lax attitude the US has toward election fraud. Elections that take days. Ballots moved around. One of the reasons is that I have seen a much better system, the system that is used in Israel. This is thread describing the Israeli system
2. First of all, scale. Israeli polling stations are tiny by US standards. In 2015 I wrote down the stats to myself, they haven't changed much since: There are 10,119 polling stations for 5,883,365 eligible voters. That's 581 people per polling station
3. Most of the polling stations are rooms in schools. A single school might have dozens of polling stations, each in its own room. When I lived in a village, the polling station was in the community center, and there was only one polling station for the whole village
Read 14 tweets
11 Oct 20
This might be the answer to your question about covid rates, @ScottAdamsSays.

Cultural practices (we don't know exactly which ones) are really, really important!
I find the Swiss data the most convincing. German, French, and Italian rates are in the exact order that you would expect
The difference between German and Italian rates *within* Switzerland are a factor of 10, similar to the difference between Germany and the US, @ScottAdamsSays. That is much more of a mystery than comparing two separate countries!
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep 20
This is the podcast on Covid self-tests that you have to hear. It answers all your questions. Takeaway: It's the bureaucracy, stupid! Only 21 minutes, and Gladwell is an excellent interviewer. My notes are below

@realDonaldTrump
@ScottAdamsSays
@nntaleb
@normonics
@yaneerbaryam
Gladwell: Why are we not doing this?

Mina: It's been first and foremost a regulatory hurdle
The only paths we have to evaluate tests like this in the US are medical diagnostic pathways. They're pathways designed specifically to ensure that a physician, like a detective, is getting all of the information they need to diagnose a sick person in front of them
Read 14 tweets

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