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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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23 Apr, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Very intelligent people: "Cambodia [GDP per capita = 1/40 of the US] beat the virus thanks to the awesome contact-tracing infrastructure it put in place."

Cambodians: bangkokpost.com/world/2000367/…
One of the weirdest things is that people's default assumption is still that between-country differences in outcomes are mostly the result of policy differences, even though within-country differences are frequently even larger in places where policy was applied uniformly.
Forget about differences in the age structure of different countries, which is obviously doing a lot of work. Even in the same country, where demographics is roughly the same everywhere, you see huge between-region differences, but the "policy über alles" narrative must go on 🤷‍♂️

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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
21 Apr
I've heard this objection over and over again in response to my argument that lockdowns don't pass a cost-benefit test and it's such an obvious non-sequitur that it just baffles me that people keep raising it. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu… Image
The idea is that, if lockdowns don't make a big difference because voluntary behavior changes have a similar effect on transmission, they also don't make a big difference on people's well-being because people are going to do the same thing no matter what.
But that's a non-sequitur because the fact that state-enforced lockdowns don't have a large effect on transmission beyond what voluntary behavior changes would achieve in the absence of government interventions doesn't mean that people behave in the same way under a lockdown.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
17 Apr
I'm very happy to announce that my paper has been accepted for publication by the European Journal of Epidemiology.
Folks, before you take this seriously (although in a sense it’s very serious), I recommend that you actually read the abstract 😄
The worst part is that I could totally write that paper. The modeling itself would only take 30 minutes, but the really fun part would be the write-up.
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
16 Apr
Sauf qu'il n'y a aucune raison de penser que E(années de vie restantes | age = x & sexe = y & victime du COVID-19) est égal à E(années de vie restantes | age = x & sexe = y) et qu'il est même parfaitement évident que ce n'est pas le cas 🤷‍♂️
À n'importe quel âge, l'immense majorité des gens qui sont infectés par SARS-CoV-2 survivent, donc ceux qui en meurent sont vraisemblablement plus fragiles que la moyenne des gens du même age et du même sexe et auraient sans doute vécu moins longtemps.
Ce tableau est donc trompeur dans le contexte du débat sur le nombre d'années de vie perdues par les victimes du COVID-19. Bref, avant de faire le mariole et de donner des leçons de démographie aux autres, mieux vaut réfléchir un peu et s'assurer qu'on ne dit pas de connerie...
Read 6 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
16 Apr
Not only did your study show no such thing, but it rests on demonstrably false assumptions, so it's really extraordinary that you continue to peddle those results. Here is a thread in which I explain why this study is worthless and should never have been used to guide policy 🧵
First, the model used in that study assumes that B.1.1.7, the UK variant, is 59% more transmissible than the historical lineage. This estimate is based from Gaymard et al. (2021), which obtained it by fitting a simple exponential growth model to only 2 data points from January.
As I explained at length in this post, even if we just use those 2 data points from January, this estimate is highly sensitive to the assumptions we make about the distribution of the generation time and there is a lot of uncertainty about that. cspicenter.org/blog/waronscie…
Read 16 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
14 Apr
Des nouvelles de B.1.1.7, le « variant anglais » qui était censé provoquer un tsunami en raison de sa transmissibilité accrue, à partir des dernières données de Santé publique France 😂 Image
Même chose mais quand on fait la comparaison uniquement avec la souche historique plutôt qu’avec tous les variants non-B.1.1.7. En gros, la première méthode est sans doute un peu biaisée, tandis que celle-ci ne l’est pas mais l’erreur de mesure est plus grande. Image
Je rappelle que les génies de l’Inserm et de l’Institut Pasteur continuent de faire l’hypothèse qu’il est 50% à 70% plus transmissible dans les modèles qu’ils utilisent pour faire les projections qu’ils présentent au gouvernement 👌
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
13 Apr
Top 3 things I've been wrong about during the pandemic:

1) That lockdowns were a good policy
2) Relatedly, that most of the uncertainty early on was about the IFR, as opposed to how to model the spread
3) That a vaccine wouldn't be approved until mid-2021 at the earliest
I should actually have put number 2 in first position, because it's the reason I was wrong on lockdowns. I thought there was a chance the IFR was significantly lower than 1% because of Japan, which I assumed was swimming in virus, yet still had very few COVID-19 deaths by March.
That's because I assumed a SIR model with constant contact rate was a good representation of transmission in the absence of strong government interventions, but in fact it's not and the explanation for Japan's low COVID-19 mortality was just that the virus had not spread much.
Read 5 tweets

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