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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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23 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Not sure people have really noticed this: the share of Americans favoring a legal path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has just hit a 4-year low civiqs.com/results/immigr…
a classic jstor.org/stable/2111666…
So this might be less about thermostatic response and more about salience

Or maybe the thermostatic response is heightened for salient issues
Contrary to popular opinion, it is actually possible to believe both things at once!

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
22 Apr
The only legitimate outcome in a democratic republic is for the majority to get what it wants the vast majority of the time. US institutions violate that principal. The minority’s only defense for this is “well that’s good for me,” which is a bad defense!

modelcitizen.substack.com/p/the-anti-maj…
The big reason why Americans have to obsess over protections for the political minority is because our institutions are so insulated against political accountability. If we had parliamentary democracy, or more proportional legislative chambers, the <50% would be at much less risk
(This is partly because the government is more responsive, but also because you don’t get factions that are committed to violating fundamental liberal rights to hold onto power)
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
22 Apr
If Trump's gains among Hispanics, esp conservatives, between 2016 and 2020 came in large part from an increasing focus on income growth/other economic gains, we could view that in part as an incumbency bonus — part of which might flow back to Biden in 2022/2024.
Biden will continue to face challenges of broader ideological sorting among conservative non-whites, but Dem gains among moderate and liberal whites — who make up a much larger share of the electorate — is an underrates story for 2020, both for POTUS and Dems taking the Senate
The shift among Latinos is a popular topic among media elites in part because it seems unfathomable to them that non-whites (or anyone really) would vote for Trump, but this stems from a broader misunderstanding of voter psychology and misses the relative importance of the change
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
20 Apr
Ackshually, the only “good” “compromise” is to retro-retrocede Alexandria and Arlington back into DC then grant residents statehood, that way Rs have a higher chance of winning senate seats in VA but DC residents get what they want
Make Delaware Pennsylvania Again
Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 Apr
.@Nate_Cohn is right that “sectarianism” (what we have been calling “negative partisanship, “affective polarization,” “tribalism” &c for a while) is a threat to democracy — I just don’t think it’s the same threat posed by the radicalization of the GOP, esp on electoral democracy
See here
And here
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
18 Apr
New Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 63% of adults want to establish age or term limits on Supreme Court justices. Given the poll also finds expanding the size of the court is unpopular, this should be the Democrats’ new position on reform

reuters.com/business/legal…
The trouble with this (the quoted tweet) is that Ds can’t just pack & “move on.” I think 4 new justices is a great idea! I also happen to think it will basically ensure Republicans win control of the federal government in 2024. Seems like something Dems would want to avoid
Ok, fair enough. Ds could spend a whole lot of time & effort trying to convince voters that packing is fine, with a high chance that it’ll backfire tremendously. Or they could try to start a movement for something that 65-75% of voters support & focus on other parts of the agenda
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
16 Apr
NEW: 46% of Republicans in our YouGov/The Economist poll this week said that the MLB's decision to move the All Star game out of GA would cause them to watch less or no baseball. 16% of Democrats said the same — and 21% said it'll make them watch more!

docs.cdn.yougov.com/wvjmyy0dlk/eco… Image
People are pretty bad at gauging how events will impact their behavior, so I don't know how accurate these aggregate numbers are, but the partisan differences are pretty striking.
I'm not quite sure what the line is between expressive responding and pavlovian partisanship, but we're nearing it
Read 4 tweets

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