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Dr Duncan Robertson

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26 Apr, 10 tweets, 3 min read

Travel is starting to split into countries with low Covid cases and countries without low Covid cases.

A short thread.

Singapore and Hong Kong have announced a travel bubble

"All passengers departing from Hong Kong are required to be vaccinated, and passengers from both cities are expected to take a test within three days of departure and again on arrival."

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

This follows the Australia - New Zealand travel bubble

bbc.co.uk/news/world-aus…

(This was suspended after a case was found)

channelnewsasia.com/news/world/cov…

If you look at the Singapore - Hong Kong travel bubble,

"The bubble will be suspended for at least two weeks if the seven-day moving average of unlinked community cases in either city increases to more than five."

Populations are roughly 1/10th of the UK

So, that would equate to say 50 unlinked community cases.

The UK currently has around 15,000 cases per week.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

The US is now listing countries according to their case numbers

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

The UK is currently on the highest 'Level 4: COVID-19 Very High' US CDC list.

With discussions around vaccine passports and Covid status certificates, we have to take a step back and realise that the UK's case rates mean that we are unlikely to be travelling to countries such as NZ, Australia, HK, Singapore without quarantine or restrictions any time soon.

@PaulNuki

And this from @PaulNuki is fascinating - it's not whether you've *had* a vaccine that may be important - it's *which* vaccine...

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…

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Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

28 Apr

gov.uk/government/new…

Conclusions below.

Study document here

khub.net/documents/1359…

"In addition to the direct effects of preventing cases and reducing severity, we have shown that both the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccines are associated with reduced likelihood of household transmission by 40-50% from individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 after vaccination...

Read 6 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

22 Apr

Public Health England have updated their analysis of Variants of Concern and Variants under Investigation. It is great that this expert analysis has been published.

Some commentary.

Firstly, the India variant (B.1.617). This has been split. Only B.1.617.1 with E484Q is a Variant under Investigation.

Variants of Concern remain
B.1.1.7 (UK/Kent)
B.1.351 (South Africa)
P.1 (Manaus)
B.1.1.7 with E484K

Several other variants are being monitored.

This is PHE's chart of variant prevalence. As you can see, B.1.1.7 (Kent variant) dominates (purple)

Read 17 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

22 Apr

@PHE_UK

The latest @PHE_UK variant data has been published for the UK. First, the heatmap of new cases.

Significantly:
P1 (Manaus) has increased from 40 to 60 total cases
B.1.617 (India) has increased from 77 to 132 total cases.
B.1.351 (SA) has increased from 600 to 670 total cases

Here is my Covid variants cumulative chart (excluding UK variant).

Note:
P1 (Manaus, red)
B.1.351 (South Africa, purple)
B.1.617 (India, light blue)

nb cumulative chart that depends on testing intensity, some will be cases at the border

And here is my cumulative chart on a log scale, including B.1.1.7 (UK variant)

There has been a great deal of surge testing that will have enabled greater detection.

However, increases in P1, B.1.351, and B.1.617 are all increases that need to be taken seriously.

Read 5 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

22 Apr

Here are my heatmaps for detected cases, hospitalizations, vaccines, and variants. Data released 22 April 2021 for cases to 18 April 2021 apart from variants (data to 21 April 2021).

DETECTED CASES

Falling in all age groups. A very good sign. Cases will not yet have been detected as a result of Step 2 (open air pubs etc.)

Here's the colourblind-safe version

Read 8 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

21 Apr

Vaccination progress is excellent - but it's worth noting there are disparities. It was good to hear in yesterday's Number 10 press conference that some of these disparities are being reduced.

Let's look at the most recent data (published 14 April, for vaccinations to 7 April)

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1382689552050098178

The first disparity is age. But this is due to prioritization based on risk and makes sense.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1382689552050098178

But when you combine this with location, you can see that London stands out. More generally, urban areas are likely to be under-vaccinated.

Read 7 tweets

Dr Duncan Robertson

@Dr_D_Robertson

15 Apr

Here are my updated charts which now highlight the B.1.617 Variant under Investigation (first detected in India) in blue

You can see the 77 cases reported this week as the light blue line

It is not clear from this 'initial report' whether all these cases were detected this week

@PHE_uk

Here's the same data on a logarithmic scale including B.1.1.7 (Kent)

It is clear that the number of B.1.617 (Variant under Investigation) first detected in India) is of significance.

Further work will be going on by experts at @PHE_uk to determine how significant.

The Roadmap fourth test that 'our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern'.

It is worth remembering that even though the vaccination rollout is going extremely well, not everyone is vaccinated and vaccines are not 100% effective.

Read 5 tweets

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