Great article by @JamesGDyke et al on the lack of climate action over the last 30 years.
I don’t see the article so much as a critique of "net-zero", more an elegant critique of lack of action. The title does not represent the article (IMHO).
“With hopes for a solution to the climate crisis fading again, another magic bullet was required”
The list of bullets:
* Afforestation
* CCS
* BECCS
* Other CDR (eg, DACCS, EW, ...)
* Overshoot scenarios
* Geoengineering
Always a technofix to keep it 5 minutes to midnight.
2/
"We struggle to name any climate scientist who at that time thought the Paris Agreement was feasible" [some exceptions]
"The price to pay for our cowardice: having to keep our mouths shut about the ever growing absurdity of the required planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal"
3
"In principle there is nothing wrong or dangerous about carbon dioxide removal proposals."
"[Some] carbon removal will be needed to mop up some of the emissions from sectors such as aviation and cement production."
4/
"The problems come when it is assumed that [Carbon Dioxide Removal or other technofixes] can be deployed at vast scale."
"This effectively serves as a blank cheque for the continued burning of fossil fuels and the acceleration of habitat destruction."
5/
"The only way to keep humanity safe is the immediate and sustained radical cuts to greenhouse gas emissions in a socially just way"
6/
"…another invisible line, the one that separates maintaining academic integrity & self-censorship. … In private, scientists express significant scepticism about the Paris Agreement, BECCS, offsetting, geoengineering & net zero"
[Maybe not net-zero, but all the others, yes]
7/
"[i]n public we quietly go about our work, apply for funding, publish papers & teach. The path to disastrous climate change is paved with feasibility studies & impact assessments."
[Next example, IPCC AR6?]
8/
The last paragraph is a bit strong for me. I don’t think “net-zero” is the problem per se, but the continual develop of innovative ways to climate targets alive. The infamous “it is always 5 minutes to midnight” (@Oliver_Geden).
After all, we do need (net)-zero emissions!
9/
I see the article has caused some stir, with everyone tweeting an opinion on "net".
I think the article describes our collective procrastination quite well. The "𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭 of net-zero" is perhaps justified?
Integrated Assessment Models "seemed like a miracle: you could try out policies on a computer screen before implementing them, saving humanity costly experimentation. … Unfortunately, they also removed the need for deep critical thinking."
11/11
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Global fossil energy CO₂ emissions:
2020: ⬇️ 5.8%, or ~2GtCO₂
2021: ⬆️ 4.8%, or ~1.5GtCO₂
Everyone wanted back to normal🤔
1/
My guestimate was 3.5% as of April 2021, so quite some lower.
My method is very aggregated, based on GDP & historical trends in CO₂/GDP. I would trust the IEA much more with disaggregated approaches... Or?
2/
Projections change over time. This is the projection I made in January, it was for 3% growth (not 3.5%). The difference? @IMFNews increased their projected GDP growth.
The study essentially argued that based on the AR5 carbon budgets, viewed from 2014, there was seven years (2021) until the 1.5°C carbon budget was used, & therefore 1.5°C was essentially a "geophysical impossibility".
They had a new method with a more realistic budget.
2/
The @CarbonBrief post was titled: "Why the 1.5°C warming limit is not yet a geophysical impossibility"
The authors wrote: "[A]lthough 1.5°C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, it remains a very difficult policy challenge."
Despite China building more coal capacity (net), coal use has been flat in the decade (green). This means the coal power utilisation rate is declining.
Coal is going down in Europe & the US, but up in most other places.
1/
And here is the same figure as a line chart, which makes it easier to compare countries and see the trends...
There are much more ups & downs in coal production. Most of the differences (to consumption) are likely to relate to stock piles (& statistical differences).