Thread by @ClimateAudit

Ontario COVID academics are in full throttle partisanship against Ontario govt for being insufficiently draconian in placing burdens and worse lockdowns on struggling private sector (while public sector privilege paychecks uninterrupted) But looks like Gompertz top on third wave

I'm pretty optimistic about May cases.

Actual cases have fallen sharply for a few days after a 2-week plateau - very Gompertz - and are already less than 50% of Science Table Apr 16 predictions, despite govt not caving to most extremist academics - to their fury.

Also, last year, cases, deaths and hospitalizations all fell sharply in May and June in Ontario as people get more fresh air and sunshine. Hopefully this year as well.

like US with Fauci, Ontario govt is saddled with Science Table advisory group, which is given prominent platform in major govt briefings and is dominated by political partisans who hate the (conservative) government and seem to adore Trudeau's socks, hair and every word.

I can't help but think Ontario's COVID modelers are people who know a little math but were never really good at it - at least by math student terms.

They get too excited about exponential models and pontificate too loudly about exponentials not being understood by the unwashed.

less than 2 weeks after COVID Science Table apocalyptic case projections, actual cases are running at less than 50% of their lowest scenario.

Also - and this hasn't been discussed much, if at all. Though Science Table points to high hospitalizations as a sort-of vindication of their forecasts, any such hospitalization forecasts were at MUCH higher case rates than observed.

Ontario Science Table did not project the combination of much higher hospitalizations and lower deaths at the case levels we're presently observing.

My issue on this point is not that they missed this angle of the forecast, but their overweening misrepresentation of forecast success, which, over all, has been poor.