on Jan 12, Ontario Science Table projected up to 41,000 COVID cases by Feb 14, but only 1500 ICU beds needed. In recent third wave, we're up to almost 900 ICU beds with less than 10% of the cases. 
2/ despite pompous Sci Table self-advertisement, their projections, up until the last few minutes, gave no hint of ICU to case ratio that we're presently experiencing.
3/ here's a way of looking at forecasts that intrigues me. There was almost linear relationship between Jan 12, 2021 projections of cases and ICU on any given date - Feb 14 values shown as points below and joined. Black +s show actuals.
4/ actual values from Jan 12 to present, even with all the publicity about the third wave, are at lowest percentiles, especially for cases. SciTable didnt provide prob distribution for their scenarios,
5/ but if one makes plausible assumption that the outer scenarios give 95% confidence interval, then Ontario's actual results - though you'd never know it from Ontario scientists and media - are in the absolute best percentiles considered possible on Jan 12.
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