This past weekend, @DonaldWelsh16 was targeted by his local community newspaper for expressing on Twitter his anxieties about the actions and tendencies of our public health advisors. Donald is a concerned citizen, and was undeserving of a smear. 🧵
lfpress.com/news/local-new…
The newspaper zeroed in on Donald recalling the early origins of the holocaust. That is of course a sensitive point of comparison (extremely mildly put) and he has since apologized and deleted the tweets in question. Here is his follow-up thread:
Apart from this parallel, the @LFPRess appears to have had no interest Donald’s message. Donald is, quite simply, a concerned citizen (& experienced scientist), who like so many see a devolution & regression in public health’s abandonment of western procedures for something else.
In the latter part of his original thread, Donald used the term “public health extremists”. Which is, of course, a controversial and inflammatory phrase. But I would encourage @MeganatLFPress & the @LFPRess to consider whether Don may be onto something, given the following…
Clip #1 – Our Ontario public health officials and their advisors:
Clip #2 – Our Ontario public health officials and their advisors:
From the Ontario Science Table on Apr 22: “Behavioural Science Principles for Enhancing Adherence to Public Health Measures”.

A document that reveals a mistrust of the public and appears to advocate for micromanagement of public behaviour. It’s a troubling read to say the least.
David Fisman, a key member of the Ontario Science Table, w/several apparent (disclosed) conflicts of interest, who once advocated for intentional mass unemployment and long national hard lockdowns, appears to have quite extreme views and inability to engage with civility:
And last example: a prominent media physician and member of the Ontario Modelling Table now appears to be in full support of vaccine passports (with agreement from David Fisman). Our Prime Minister today alluded to their use.
So on reflection, perhaps Donald's concern about the actions of public health specifically in this province are not far off-base.
Side note: interestingly, a few of the digital online comments on the article about Donald have been deleted/flagged by the LFP, and they appear to be from some of the folks expressing support for Donald.
In closing: @DonaldWelsh cares about his community. And he is troubled by the damage public health has done to it to date. And for these concerns, he was smeared in his home community, for simply remembering that ‘Lest we Forget’.

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More from @rubiconcapital_

7 Apr
1/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE
*This is not a tangential issue*
It directly impacts ICU narrative:

CCSO (live ICU) vs. CCM (gov’t patient database) continue to *DIVERGE MATERIALLY*
CCSO vs. CCM differ 3-fold!

@CriticalCareON & @publicHealthON must clarify:
2/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

CCSO daily new C-19 admissions are now almost FORTY-FIVE PERCENT (~45%) of new C-19 hospitalizations

A rising trend since Feb 1st, up from a range in the mid-20%s thru the winter wave

And 3X higher than CCM data (still in a consistent 10-20% band).
3/ IMPORTANT ICU DATA UPDATE

Note that for the entire pandemic, the national average of ICU admissions to total hospitalizations has been ~17.5%, according to PHAC weekly updates.

45% of new hospital admits being ICU admits is a massive statistical divergence!
Read 8 tweets
30 Mar
A cherry-picked stat is creating a media frenzy.

- A 50% ⬆️ in % of ICU admits in "younger people" vs. Dec is driven MOSTLY by admits in the 50-59 cohort!

- Yes, some ⬆️ in # of 49&U admits. BUT, the Ontario Science Table should know:

TWO data points DO NOT make a trend👇
2/

The data in the Toronto Database (as of Mar 22) are abundantly clear:

There were just FIVE (5) Toronto residents 49 & Under in ICU (1 39 & U), down from 12 as of Dec 21/’20

The next weekly Toronto database update is tomorrow, and I will update if there is a material change.
3a/

Related: an Important data note/inquiry for CCSO (@criticalcareON) & @PublicHealthON:

There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).
Read 7 tweets
25 Mar
1/4

The Ontario Science Table on March 23, published this report essentially recommending AGAINST asymptomatic testing of LTC staff, citing:

-Consistent low %pos of staff in screening
-Vaccination protection of LTC residents

Key observations follow...
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…
2/4

Observation 1

54% of Ontario C19 deaths were among ~80k LTC residents. OST is essentially confirming this population is protected.

Ex-LTC, Ontario C19 deaths =~23 per 100,000 (in line with flu/pneumonia deaths in 🇨🇦).
C19 Survival rate excluding outbreak deaths 70+ =99.2%
3/4

Observation 2

OST indicates/quantifies the extremely low test % positivity of LTC staff in screen testing.

This seems contradictory to the OST conclusion that community incidence of C19 is the key predictor of LTC outbreaks.

Perhaps there is an explanation? cc:@drbobbell
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
Ontario Science Table lockdown policy, backed by @fordnation, @JohnTory & @epdevilla, appears to have dramatically shifted C-19 disease burden onto the low income, high visible minority, high household density, high service worker areas of Toronto.

Shocking #’s & visuals follow. Image
First, a message to vulnerable communities:

In my opinion, health/govt officials put you in harms way. They⬆️your mobility *relative to the population*, shifting community disease burden onto you. They did not care about you. They cared about themselves and their failed policy.
We know there were relative disease burden differences. But to what degree?
Read 18 tweets
5 Mar
1/ Mass Vaccination – Why Do We Need it in Ontario (or anywhere?)

- LTC residents nearly vaccinated (55% of C-19 mortality)
- Progress in the most vulnerable (70+, 87% of mortality, 12% of pop)

A short thread with clips & charts, based on my recent video
2/ The public health messaging is clear—everybody needs a vaccine.

Dr. DeVilla of Toronto: “the sooner we have needles in arms and the more needles in arms we have, the better off we all are.”

(all clips from March 1, 2021 pressers)
3/ Dr. Williams, the Chief Doctor in Ontario:

“Wait for your vaccine, it's coming, we want everybody vaccinated, not just some, we want everybody done in a timely pattern.”
Read 18 tweets
31 Jan
Sensational article appealing to emotions, claiming Toronto ICUs "struggling with younger C19 patients". The headline may have you think ICU is in onslaught with young kids. ICUs are challenged, but the following charts don't match this narrative. 1/
twitter.com/i/events/13559…
Here are percentage of total COVID19 ICU admissions by age group in the 1st vs 2nd wave. Extremely low 6% of all ICU admissions in Under 39 ages, with only minimal changes in overall ICU admission mix in older ages. So the age mix of patients is roughly similar.
Here is the actual number of daily ICU admissions by age group... Under 39, 40-69, 70+....
Yes, we see the older ages are increasing... just like they were in the first wave...
Under 39 ages? ABOUT 1 ICU ADMISSION EVERY 5 DAYS.
Read 8 tweets

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