Thread by @bencowling88

Short thread on #COVID19 vaccines and vaccine hesitancy in Hong Kong. tl;dr summary: vaccines work, we should all choose to get vaccinated so that Hong Kong can get back to normal (1/17)

In Hong Kong, #COVID19 poses just as much threat now as it did a year ago. We have done well to control surges in transmission so far, and have recorded just 11,749 confirmed cases cumulatively (0.15% of the population) covid19.sph.hku.hk (2/17)

High uptake of #COVID19vaccines will allow us to relax the public health measures that have been used either intermittently or continuously in the past year – quarantines, social distancing, mass gathering bans, work-at-home, school closures, mandatory face masks, etc. (3/17)

Ideally high vaccine coverage will lead to “herd immunity”, where #COVID19 is no longer able to spread in the community. It looks like Israel is the first place in the world to achieve herd immunity through vaccination (4/17) bbc.com/news/world-mid…

With high vaccine coverage, even if we don’t reach “herd immunity” in Hong Kong, people who have been vaccinated will be protected against severe #COVID19, blunting the public health impact of any epidemic that does subsequently occur (5/17)

However, there is considerable vaccine hesitancy in Hong Kong. The latest data from our regular random-digit-dialling population surveys indicate that, as of last week, projected vaccine uptake is only around 50%. The most recent data point here is from April 19-22 (6/17)

We also analysed intention-to-receive vaccination by age, the data here are from our survey from April 12-15, when around 20% of unvaccinated adults responded that they never intend to receive COVID vaccination (in red). (7/17)

In the previous figure, the blue and green bars, maybe even the orange bars, indicate that there is quite a high proportion of the population that could probably be persuaded to get vaccinated (8/17)

A major factor in vaccine hesitancy is the low perceived risk of #COVID19 given we have been so successful in limiting infections to less than 1% of the population in the past year. Fear of side-effects of vaccination also contributes to the hesitancy (9/17)

At the same time, there are relatively few incentives to receive vaccination. Vaccinated people here are mostly required to behave in the same way as unvaccinated people, perhaps giving the impression that vaccination doesn't make much difference? (10/17)

Please don't @ me for citing this quote from a republican politician, whether or not we agree with all of his policies I think the sentiment expressed here is spot on (11/17) news.yahoo.com/desantis-vacci…

All residents of this housing block in Hong Kong were recently sent to quarantine for 21 days, regardless of whether any of them had been fully vaccinated (12/17) scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

Under current social distancing rules here, a group of 5 or more fully-vaccinated people could be fined for sitting together on a beach (13/17) scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

In an interview this morning I suggested that on-arrival quarantine could be relaxed for fully vaccinated persons. Close-contact quarantine could be relaxed as well. Vaccination works, we should act accordingly (14/17) news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compon…

Vaccination passports are not ideal particularly in the long run, and I recognise that not everybody is able to be vaccinated, but vaccines are now available and accessible for residents down to 16 years of age, with many unfilled slots every day (15/17) covidvaccine.gov.hk/en/

Without high vaccine coverage, Hong Kong could choose to continue being almost hermetically sealed from the rest of the world and sustain elimination for years, as I explained here hkcnews.com/article/39405/…
But there would be considerable social and economic consequences (16/17)

In conclusion, #COVID19Vaccines are safe and effective, and provide our pathway back to pre-COVID normality. I really hope we will see increasing vaccination uptake here in the coming weeks and months (17/17)