💉Israel #COVID19 update for week ending April 17th:
- 993 total cases
- 812 of those in the unvaccinated pop (3,947,127 people) = 20.57 cases per 100k.
- 50 in partially vaccinated (520,743) = 9.6 per 100k.
- 131 in fully* vaccinated (4,823,130) = 2.7 per 100k.
*14d post 2nd
Schools, restaurants, bars, etc all open.
Masks only in indoor public settings
In this analysis -
-Fully vaccinated: >=14 days post 2nd dose
-Partially vaccinated: 1st dose only, or <14d post 2nd dose
-All received #Pfizer-#BioNTech which is the only vaccine currently given in Israel
Technical comment - this analysis required some minor data approximation due to @IsraelMOH obfuscating some of the values in the table for privacy reasons; this mainly affects the partially vaxed group since it's a relatively small population (~500k vs. 5M fully vaxed)
The case rate I calculated for the unvaxed population was ~9 per 100k; running the analysis again with slightly different parameters results in a case rate of ~14 per 100k. Since this is a large difference, I've asked @IsraelMOH to look into this and maybe release more data
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Excited to see our paper published by @CDCMMWR!
Great collaboration with the amazing @EhudR4 🙏
We showed the population-level effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing severe disease requiring mechanical ventilation.
Short explainer👇 1/n bit.ly/MMWR22621
We analysed the publicly available COVID-19 vaccination and cases data from Israel, and compared the daily number of ventilated patients in the highly vaccinated >70 age group with the under-50 age group (low vaccine coverage).
2/n
The ratio of COVID-19 patients over 70 years old to patients under 50 years old requiring mechanical ventilation decreased by 67% as compared with rates before the vaccination program.
3/n
#COVID in Israel, thread with some possible explanations.
Within the last 4wks: 1. Massive vaccination campaign, with ~80% of the >60 population vaccinated. 2. A third national lockdown declared. 3. Huge surge in cases and deaths. @EricTopol and others ask "what is going on?" 1/5
The question being, why have we yet to see a positive effect of both these dramatic measures?
Here are some important points to consider in this regard. 1. The vaccine campaign (correctly) targeted at-risk individuals, mainly the over-60 population.
2/5
2. Yet the drivers of the infection wave are the younger population, who have not been vaccinated up till now (rollout for younger people starting this week!). 3. The vaccination campaign is a success. But vacc % are low in some high-morbidity communities. See plot: 3/5