Thread by @smartrestartaps

1/ Time for the weekly report on stats and outbreaks in our schools. Here's a look by school and week.

2/ And here's a look at overall exposures and positive cases... We did have one week with over 100 people affected by needing to quarantine or being sick with COVID-19. Most of the weeks are hovering at about five dozen people affected.

3/ Here's a look at who is getting sick in Arlington by age, as a percentage of TOTAL cases in a week. Seems like kids cases jumped after school reopened, followed by increases in parent aged groups. Younger 20 somethings also continue to be high % of our cases.

4/ In addition, White people became a higher percentage of cases after schools reopened. And the 22207 zip code soon had a higher percentage of total cases as well. This North Arlington zip code includes a lot of the schools with the highest occupancy.

5/ One more glance at this...

6/ This shows rates of change by racial/ethnic group in Arlington. The dip in White cases leveled off after school buildings reopened. Same for Latino residents (but at lower rate of spread). Asian and Black students, most likely to learn at home, had an increase then decline.

7/ This is the case count by race/ethnicity.

8/ Rate of increase by age for the past few weeks: COVID-19's spread has been slowing, coming off worst month in January. The push to vaccinate is working! School kids may benefit from vaccinated parents but lag behind other groups. At least 7 school outbreaks during this time.

9/ We're now up to 59 recorded school outbreaks in Northern Virginia this year, adding St. Thomas More Catholic School in Arlington. School outbreaks appear to be reported to/by VDH with some delay from our county health department, showing up weeks afterward in the lists.

10/ Weekly cases in the age 0-19 bracket...

11/ Kids continue to take up a large % of the new cases each week in Arlington.

12/ Arlington schools report very few of our county's cases affecting kids in the APS dashboard. Are all of the other kids' COVID-19 cases from daycare or private schools? Or is the county too slow to let our school system know of cases? Or is there no one to do this data entry?

CORREX: Need to flip the lines marking 3rd to 5th grade and the addition of high school kids. Sorry about that!

The burden of COVID-19 in 22204, one of the most diverse zip codes in the county, has remained high for much of the pandemic.
These graphs are a simple attempt to show "where COVID was that week." They are a snapshot of what % new cases could be described in different ways.

13/ Finally, there was a lot in the weekly report from VDH, including a model that shows a July spike is possible if things reopen too fast and get too far ahead of vaccinations. Or, we all hang in there, eat takeout, vaccinate, and crush the 🦠 by July.

vdh.virginia.gov/content/upload…

14/ Looking at modeling for VA can make one a little nervous. Will Arlington and @GovernorVA maintain the policies that drive our community transition rate low and crush the virus? Or will we allow a July spike, prior to bringing kids back to school without social distancing?

15/ Feels like the Democrats need a "you broke it, you bought it" attitude towards this and support the policies that ensure our fall community transmission are low — since they mandated 5 days of school and have effectively forced APS to reject CDC advice on 3 feet of distance.

16/ CDC has updated its variant tracker now placing new more dangerous versions of this virus at an estimated 62% of cases In VA.

P.1 is now at .5% and appears for the first time in this list.

VA makes the top 8 states for % of variant of concern cases now.

@threadreaderapp unroll