I propose a theory of digital transformation journey called Digitalisation-Cloud-Automation journey (DCA journey for short) and argue that each stage of the DCA journey enabled subsequent stages to occur for the West.
2) The journey is sequential as each step unlocks new business models and technology needs that would be unfeasible or unwanted at an earlier stage.
3) This development sequence is the assumed path for cloud adoption and growth of SaaS, but not so for China. China is undergoing all three stages of digitalisation, cloud adoption and automation concurrently rather than sequentially.
4) Relative to the US, where most firms have digitalised, and cloud adoption is the logical next step. In China, cloud adoption is predicated on whether the industry has digitised first and is highly heterogeneous across sectors.
5) I then go to make some predictions for how this will unfold in China. Check it out.
Oh, I also discovered footnotes. This is literally a game changer for me.
In 2017, Ctrip was the undisputed OTA market leader with ~50% of China's online hotel bookings. They quashed competitors and lead a consolidation of the OTA market.
By 2018, they had lost all of that to Meituan.
Wtf happened?
2) The one KPI that rules Chinese consumer super apps - Meituan's secret sauce and their reason for all in on Community Group Buying (CGB)
It's not DAU, it's not AOV, it's not GMV
It's the frequency of use per day
3) I've said this many times, relative to western consumer tech companies, who tend to focus on “serving a function” as their core mission, Chinese companies tend to focus on “owning the user” as their core mission.
1) Prediction: China domestic brands and design will enter into a golden age in the coming 5 years, with at least one DTC brand breaking the $100bn market cap.
This is from a combination of growing demand and supply of innovative brand storytelling and design.
2) On the demand side, the rise of Gen Z heralds a new generation of brand-agnostic consumers who doesn't implicitly hold western brands in high regards. They are focused on expressing individuality and control the spending power of 2 generations from parents to grandparents
3)Western brands are not only too mainstream but also tainted with political allegiances given geopolitical tension.
These brands' haven't been able to provide hyper-local zeitgeist products. Chinese traditional embroidery is table-stakes. Where's the hanfu, lolita and JK stuff?
I took screenshots of Taobao, Pinduoduo and JD’s homepage and ran them through a translation layer so it’s not perfect. But I’ll explain what they are
Let’s go through each of them in turn. Taobao first:
2)With super apps, the landing page should be thought of a the control panel.
As such top two rows are leading to other Alibaba products - these include Tmall (more upscale Taobao), Tmall international (overseas goods), Tmall supermarket, Flying pig (travel booking) and grocery
3) There’s also functions like voucher, gold coins (loyalty points) and categories.
You also the see the prompt message at the top, which always highlight the deals of the week for you to browse.
There’s also the live-streaming portal, which is TikTok like.
1) I want to talk about something that deviates from my normal tweets. I've been hesitant about expressing this since I am not an Asian American.
But I want to talk about Chinese culture's implicit acceptance of pain in exchange for survival. And how that makes us silent.
2) A recent article came out about Viya (China's most success livestreamer who can command 37m viewers per stream). She sleeps 4-5 hours every day and spends the rest of that time working, rarely has time for her kids or a break. She's getting surgery for her vocal cords rn.
3) The article stresses the tough lives these livestreamers live and in fact, the tough lives everyone lives in China. Eating bitterness is taken as given. The cost of not just doing business but surviving.
1) Let's talk about @AcquiredFM's episode on Meituan. Fan disclaimer: I'm a big fan, my Substack is partly inspired by their process.
I thought the episode was good, I have a few different interpretations and a more cautious outlook:
2) My first reframing is the proxy war between Tencent and Alibaba. Meituan, PDD and Didi all have to grow-up in the shadows of this dynamic. It's almost impossible to be neutral.
This means that whatever Meituan did with one, it affected their dynamic with the other.
3) Alibaba is a traffic taker (since it is focused on conversion at the end of the funnel) while Tencent is a traffic giver.
This means that for Ali, Meituan was only there to give them more traffic, whereas Tencent was driving volume to the apps
1) AliCloud is finally profitable 12 years after its inception. Posting topline rev of $1.78bn and EBITDA of $3.7m in Q3 2020. In comparison, it took AWS 20 years to reach profitability.
However, interesting times ahead - some facts and thoughts on the state of cloud in China:
2) Don't get me wrong, Alicloud is doing well. Gartner rated them as being the global top 3 for IaaS in market share in 2020.
It just took them billions of investment to get there and unclear how much more billions in the future
3) Alicloud will invest an additional RMB 200 billion in the next three years. Tencent will invest RMB 500 billion in the next five years to build multiple million-level servers. Baidu will scale to 5 million units in 10 years, equivalent to an investment of RMB 300 billion