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30 Apr, 5 tweets, 3 min read
It's too early to know for sure, but the formal reason for Pavlov's arrest seems to revolve around this: navalny.com/p/6486/

/1
In that post, Navalny's team presents an overview of the materials they were allowed to see relating to the accusations of extremism against Navalny's organizations. To remind, that trial -- in which Pavlov represents the team -- is being held behind closed doors.

/2
Among the revelations was the news that the authorities were preparing a case against @navalny, @leonidvolkov and @ioannZH, essentially accusing them of running not a political organization, but an illegal sect.

vtimes.io/2021/04/29/sk-…

/3
Knowing Pavlov, I have a hard time believing they would have revealed information they weren't allowed to reveal. Mistakes can happen, I suppose, but Pavlov would not have undermined his clients that way, nor allowed his clients to undermine themselves.

/4
Meanwhile, authorities have used this as an excuse to raid pretty much the entirety of @Komanda29. The implication is that the gov't would like to see one of the country's most successful legal defense teams go down together with Navalny.

/END

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More from @samagreene

Sam Greene Profile picture
30 Apr
A thread, in which I admit a mistake of analysis.

TL;DR: I didn't think the Kremlin would go all in on repression as quickly and as deeply as it has.

/1

moscowonthames.wordpress.com/2021/04/30/no-…
There’s an adage in political science that you shouldn’t predict the future if you’re likely to live long enough to see it. It’s a good maxim, and while I generally try not to break it, I sometimes fail.

/2
One of those times was back in November 2018, when I looked at the challenges facing Vladimir Putin, the options on his menu, and tried to predict what he’d do. Looking back, I was right about most things, but wrong about one. I wish I hadn’t been.

iiss.org/blogs/analysis…

/3
Read 22 tweets
Sam Greene Profile picture
22 Apr
And so, #Russia de-escalates: First at home, and then in Ukraine.

(A quick thread. TL;DR: None of this is over just yet.)

/1
The most recent and very welcome piece of news is Shoigu's announcement that Russian troops will be pulling back from the Ukrainian border. It is very good to know that a full-scale invasion of #Ukraine is apparently not in the offing.

kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…
/2
There will be a lot of mostly pointless arguing over why this happened. Some will claim that Russia never intended to invade. Others will claim that deterrence worked. Only Putin knows, and he isn't talking.

/3
Read 13 tweets
Sam Greene Profile picture
21 Apr
While we wait for the protests to kick off, it's worth spending a bit more time looking at the economic aspects of Putin's speech today.

TL;DR: It's underwhelming, but informative.

/1
For context: Broadly speaking, Russia has an economic problem, but not a fiscal one. The budget is in deficit but the fiscal position is strong, as are reserves, and the country can afford to borrow (even despite US sanctions on sovereign debt).

/2
GDP growth is unstable and anemic -- the headline projection of 3.8% is unimpressive, given what happened in 2020 (and projections of 5-6% in more mature markets).

/3
Read 18 tweets
Sam Greene Profile picture
23 Jan
The dust hasn't yet settled, but we can draw some early conclusions from today's protests in #Russia. TL;DR: The Kremlin and the opposition are at a stalemate.

/1
I don't see reliable nationwide turnout figures, but this feels similar in size & scale to the 2017 Dimon protests, which brought out 60-100k nationwide. This may be bigger. Either way, more than the Kremlin was hoping to see, but probably less than the opposition wanted.

/2
The Kremlin went to extraordinary lengths to keep people off the streets - including preventive arrests, online censorship, and threats to workers and students - and there's little indication it worked (though, I suppose, turnout could have been even higher).

/3
Read 17 tweets
Sam Greene Profile picture
9 Jan
It is possible to believe that Twitter and Facebook did the right thing to block Trump, and that, having done so, it lays bear a real problem for American democracy. The Biden Administration and the incoming Congress need urgently to address the power of online social media.

/1
First, Twitter’s cancellation of Trump is NOT a First Amendment violation. Twitter has a right to moderate the speech distributed on its network, and a responsibility to take the public interest into account.

/2
Moreover, Trump has not been deprived of the ability to speak. He has merely been deprived of the ability to speak on Twitter and Facebook. I am not overly troubled by the ability of private corporations to decide how consumers use those corporations’ resources.

/3
Read 13 tweets
Sam Greene Profile picture
6 Jan
I'm struck by something @LisaDNews just reported on @NewsHour from inside the Capitol: Once inside, many -- though maybe not all -- of the protesters seemed to become more relaxed, surprised that they had made it inside, but perhaps also in awe of where they were.

/1
Obviously this is purely anecdotal, but it's a reminder to take seriously the power of institutions, of tradition and of ritual.

/2
There is a reason that our great buildings of state are so impressive. Yes, they project power, but they also -- sometimes -- remind occupants that they are part of something bigger than they are.

Turns out, it may work on occupiers, too.

/3
Read 8 tweets

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