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Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

12 Apr

@MaxBoot

My friend ⁦@MaxBoot⁩ says the nuclear deal is the only way to restrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and criticizes me for my rejection of the Biden administration’s desperate effort to return to it.

I adore Max but he’s wrong. Here’s why: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

JCPOA gives Tehran patient pathways to nuke weapons because of restrictions that sunset, advanced centrifuge R&D that permits Iran to develop easier clandestine sneakout, no prohibitions on weapon-grade uranium after 2030 & no requirement for Iran to come clean on weaponization.

It also doesn’t cover missiles and in fact permits the UN missile embargo to expire in 2023 as it permitted the UN arms embargo to expire in 2020.

It also lifts the most powerful economic sanctions thereby flowing tens of billions back into the coffers of the regime.

Read 15 tweets

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

9 Apr

@USEnvoyIran

Has @USEnvoyIran given away the US dollar to the regime? Because if he hasn’t yet, he will.

Lifting the prohibition on the “U-Turn” and facilitating the regime’s use of the US dollar.

When this is said and done, you will be shocked by how much is given away.

Cotton-Gallagher resolution with over 60 lead co-sponsors explicitly: “(5) opposes the lifting of the “U-Turn” prohibition, which bans Iran from accessing the United States financial system for the purpose of conducting dollarized transactions” congress.gov/bill/117th-con…

@StateDeptSpox

“Dollarization” is what the regime desperately wants. It is not part of JCPOA-prescribed sanctions relief. That concession would be “inconsistent with the JCPOA” in @StateDeptSpox formulation.

Will @USEnvoyIran get anything more and meaningful from regime in return?

Read 4 tweets

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

12 Mar

The Biden administration is going back into a deeply-flawed nuclear deal that gives the regime in Iran patient pathways to atomic weapons and flows tens of billions of dollars into the coffers of the IRGC.

Don’t lose the thread in the tic-toc of the daily hurly burly.

The strategy will be to negotiate like John Kerry but sound like Tom Cotton (the “Tom and Kerry” strategy) to try and break the Republican consensus & neutralize our MidEast allies.

This is a much more sophisticated group than 2015 in terms of political strategy & messaging.

The “longer, stronger, broader” deal is the way to achieve this political objective. It’s only possible if the Biden administration gives up everything. It’s more likely, after returning to JCPOA, Iran issue goes on the back-burner — and regime enjoys the sunsets.

Read 4 tweets

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

6 Dec 20

Thread. Nuclear versus Economic Snapbacks: How nuclear extortion beats economic pressure every time when a US president fears Iranian nuclear escalation.

1. We warned in 2015 that Iran has a nuclear snapback, a threat of nuke blackmail that would block an American economic snapback, unless a US president refused to be extorted and was prepared to go it alone.

2. We also argued in 2015 that the US economic snapback was powerful enough that you didn’t need EU or other multilateral support. Companies would choose America over Iran when put to a stark choice — and OFAC was prepared to vigorously enforce US sanctions.

Read 12 tweets

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

5 Dec 20

@DanielBShapiro

I have my disagreements with this piece by ⁦@DanielBShapiro⁩ but there’s common sense in many of his recommendations. The U.S. & Israel share common goals; the important differences will be tactical over the question of when & how to wield leverage. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…

Dan perhaps understandably avoids the real tactical and profound disagreements between the Biden and Netanyahu teams of how and when to use leverage.

The Biden folks believe they can offer major preemptive concessions to encourage Iran back into the JCPOA and then negotiate a follow on agreement that addresses the sunsets and other nuclear and non-nuclear problems.

Read 10 tweets

Mark Dubowitz

@mdubowitz

28 Nov 20

“For two decades, Fakhrizadeh was the driving force behind what American and Israeli officials describe as Iran’s secretive nuke weapons program.

His **work continued** after Iran’s push to develop a bomb was formally disbanded in 2003... nytimes.com/2020/11/27/wor…

... according to American intelligence assessments and Iranian nuclear documents stolen by Israel nearly three years ago.”

For all those falsely claiming that he was a scientist simply in charge of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, facts are stubborn things.

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