Thread by @SquishChaos

1/19

Predicting short-term price is speculative, but can be useful learning to get feedback on my feel for "the pulse" of the market and train 'market instincts'

@RyanWatkins_ inspired me to take a shot at this for $ETH as we break above $3k

A thread 👇

https://twitter.com/RyanWatkins_/status/1389245824425766913

First off - this level of specificity is absolutely not 'rigorous' in any sense. This thread is just for fun, so don't @ me lol.

Second, @RyanWatkins_ clarified he thinks we're late "media attention" and could have months of runway, so don't @ him either

Since I posted my $ETH report, ETH is up 25% and $BTC is up 3%. As my dad often says, "sometimes it's better to be lucky than right"

https://twitter.com/SquishChaos/status/1387074095007817730?s=20

Where are we now? I think we're still mid-awareness phase. I think January was the initial takeoff.

I don't think we've started media attention phase or seen that first sell off Media knows $DOGE, $BTC, and #NFT but discussion of investing in $ETH or #DeFi? Nada.

See these google trends charts for a bit of evidence. Blue $BTC, Red $ETH, Yellow $DOGE, Green $NFT

On an absolute basis - $ETH is less known than BTC, Doge, and even below NFT's at one point

On relative basis - $ETH steadily gaining ground on....everything

So...what's driving this price increase?

My view is Canada ETF volume & gradual institutional awareness is driving demand

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1389184589067952129?s=20

But how is it so dang consistent? Here's the log chart of $ETH weekly price. We've had 2 actual scares since May2020.

I think this is reflexive 'pseudo-illiquidity' from $ETH community price targets.

Everyone decided for some reason that $10-$25k is this cycle's peak. So everyone is HODLing till then bc this is the plan.

ETFs and some institutions are buying into that illiquidity.

I think with minor shakeouts, this short-term rip will continue to near 10k and get real attention. 2 pieces of evidence:

1: Media
From Jan1 to Jan9, $ETH moves from $760 to $1300. What a week. Per Google trends, searches for ETH today are 2/3 what they were at that peak.

2: Volume. On balance volume shows net volume on up & down days. It's a crude indicator that shows how 'active' in volume terms a move in price is.

Look at how much volume accompanied the move in January. By comparison, the move from $1200 to $3300 has been muted.

move from $1200-3300 was on low media attention+low volume. likely due to forced buying from Canada's ETF into diamond hands $ETH fans with 10-25k PTs.

We'll rip on ST euphoria until that 10-25k range.

But this is where things get messy.

Lol again, I'm being super specific for fun, but this is 100% speculative storytelling.

At $10-25k, that 'pseudo-illiquidity' melts as $ETH bulls take profits. ETF volume dries up. Wouldn't be surprised if this coincides with EIP1559 and everyone says "see, it was priced in"

If we do hit this range, we could have major drawdowns and months of consolidation as $ETH bulls sell, cycle is declared over, and everyone says EIP1559/PoS was priced in.

Wouldn't be surprised to see 50% drawdowns and leverage get smashed.

This is the "first sell off" imo

This is also where we'll hear about the "event risk" - a real risk!

Risks:
Miners protest PoS?
PoS upgrade has some big flaw?
Scalability fails?

If price is at $10-25k, people will take profits here also just to avoid event risk. Supply glut. "it was priced in" bs begins

This is what halving events are made for though. They can't be priced in but they act over months.

After November, gradual rise of price floor as triple halving slowly munches through supply glut. Whales buy+stake. Illiquidity rises....and price will steadily capture ground.

When $ETH breaks to new highs in the aftermath (maybe end of Q1 2022? lol random speculation), it will be under PoS, EIP1559, w/ scalability online, and the narrative will be that it's at new highs due to fundamental successes.

We'll realize that no, nothing was priced in.

In the setting of these shifts, $ETH will finally have its turn at the limelight and "Media attention phase" will be full swing as we break to new highs. We'll see that google trends flippening lol.

During this, liquidity will be draining quickly as staking and DeFi TVL rises.

The last phase (enthusiasm, greed, delusion) will happen in the setting of this increased illiquidity and a narrative primed for the limelight.

US ETF will bolster price at unknown time w/ more significant effect than Canada ETF is having now.

This is the path to $150k

Fin.

*One more time, I'll stress that this is me trying to speculatively "feel out the market."

No clue what will be the actual path, but fun to turn my framework into a story and learn from what happens!

See the below tweet for some FinTwit wisdom.

https://twitter.com/InvestmentTalkk/status/1389233653440557057?s=20

This adds another data point. Premiums and exchange inflows (next tweet in linked thread) aren’t where they should be…this move should continue

https://twitter.com/ichiisan/status/1389580263789789194