Since Hartlepool constituency was founded in 1974 the combined votes of:
The Conservatives
UKIP/Brexit
& far right parties
...has ALWAYS been higher than 33% at election time.
The only exceptions were 1997, 2001 & 2005...
...when Tony Blair was leader of the Labour Party.
The Conservatives
UKIP/Brexit
& far right parties
...has ALWAYS been higher than 33% at election time.
The only exceptions were 1997, 2001 & 2005...
...when Tony Blair was leader of the Labour Party.
2/
Indeed for half the elections since 1974, the right + far right in Hartlepool got 40-60% of the vote.
The idea that Labour is suddenly struggling here because “it’s moved away from the left” or because “the red-wall has suddenly fallen for the right” simply doesn’t hold up.
Indeed for half the elections since 1974, the right + far right in Hartlepool got 40-60% of the vote.
The idea that Labour is suddenly struggling here because “it’s moved away from the left” or because “the red-wall has suddenly fallen for the right” simply doesn’t hold up.
3/
The idea that places like Hartlepool are moving away from Labour because “it’s not left wing enough”...
...is ahistorical nonsense promoted by people who are trying to shoehorn in a narrative that simply isn’t true and/or don’t know the area.
The idea that places like Hartlepool are moving away from Labour because “it’s not left wing enough”...
...is ahistorical nonsense promoted by people who are trying to shoehorn in a narrative that simply isn’t true and/or don’t know the area.
4/
What you likely won’t see in the reporting.
And that’s not necessarily due to “political bias” but because the media - and many others - like
lazy narratives.
What you likely won’t see in the reporting.
And that’s not necessarily due to “political bias” but because the media - and many others - like
lazy narratives.
5/
So if you were to sum up 47 years of Hartlepool electoral history:
1974-1992 - Labour held off Tories in often relatively close elections
1997-2005 - Blair destroys the Tory vote in the constituency
2010-2019 - Labour holds the seat as right wing vote split
So if you were to sum up 47 years of Hartlepool electoral history:
1974-1992 - Labour held off Tories in often relatively close elections
1997-2005 - Blair destroys the Tory vote in the constituency
2010-2019 - Labour holds the seat as right wing vote split
6/
Another view:
Hartlepool got within 1 500 swing votes of a Tory MP in 1983 when Labour had its most leftwing leader in it’s then history and Margret Thatcher was standing on the back of a “patriotic Falklands victory campaign”.
While the Conservatives’ lowest point came...
Another view:
Hartlepool got within 1 500 swing votes of a Tory MP in 1983 when Labour had its most leftwing leader in it’s then history and Margret Thatcher was standing on the back of a “patriotic Falklands victory campaign”.
While the Conservatives’ lowest point came...
7/
..while the Conservatives’ lowest point came in 2004 & 2005...directly following the high point of Britain’s involvement in Iraq war.
I offer no judgment here on the war.
Merely to say that these are the electoral facts.
..while the Conservatives’ lowest point came in 2004 & 2005...directly following the high point of Britain’s involvement in Iraq war.
I offer no judgment here on the war.
Merely to say that these are the electoral facts.
8/
So to the final point:
2021
The right/far-right vote is now coalesced into one party - the Conservatives
..while the non-right vote is split between 4-5 parties expected to get somewhere between 45-55%.
In other words: the exact opposite of the last 4 elections.
/ends
So to the final point:
2021
The right/far-right vote is now coalesced into one party - the Conservatives
..while the non-right vote is split between 4-5 parties expected to get somewhere between 45-55%.
In other words: the exact opposite of the last 4 elections.
/ends
ADDENDUM
If this poll is relatively sound - the sample is quite small - then the combined (supposedly) left/centre left parties are within 1 % point of swing voters flipping to take the seat - of course if the vote is split then the conservatives will get in.
If this poll is relatively sound - the sample is quite small - then the combined (supposedly) left/centre left parties are within 1 % point of swing voters flipping to take the seat - of course if the vote is split then the conservatives will get in.
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