Since Hartlepool constituency was founded in 1974 the combined votes of:

The Conservatives
& far right parties

...has ALWAYS been higher than 33% at election time.

The only exceptions were 1997, 2001 & 2005...

...when Tony Blair was leader of the Labour Party.

Indeed for half the elections since 1974, the right + far right in Hartlepool got 40-60% of the vote.

The idea that Labour is suddenly struggling here because “it’s moved away from the left” or because “the red-wall has suddenly fallen for the right” simply doesn’t hold up.

The idea that places like Hartlepool are moving away from Labour because “it’s not left wing enough”... ahistorical nonsense promoted by people who are trying to shoehorn in a narrative that simply isn’t true and/or don’t know the area.

What you likely won’t see in the reporting.

And that’s not necessarily due to “political bias” but because the media - and many others - like
lazy narratives.

So if you were to sum up 47 years of Hartlepool electoral history:

1974-1992 - Labour held off Tories in often relatively close elections

1997-2005 - Blair destroys the Tory vote in the constituency

2010-2019 - Labour holds the seat as right wing vote split

Another view:

Hartlepool got within 1 500 swing votes of a Tory MP in 1983 when Labour had its most leftwing leader in it’s then history and Margret Thatcher was standing on the back of a “patriotic Falklands victory campaign”.

While the Conservatives’ lowest point came...

..while the Conservatives’ lowest point came in 2004 & 2005...directly following the high point of Britain’s involvement in Iraq war.

I offer no judgment here on the war.
Merely to say that these are the electoral facts.

So to the final point:

The right/far-right vote is now coalesced into one party - the Conservatives

..while the non-right vote is split between 4-5 parties expected to get somewhere between 45-55%.

In other words: the exact opposite of the last 4 elections.


If this poll is relatively sound - the sample is quite small - then the combined (supposedly) left/centre left parties are within 1 % point of swing voters flipping to take the seat - of course if the vote is split then the conservatives will get in.

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More from @nicktolhurst

5 May
18 months ago I wrote a thread on “the inconvenient truth” of the election.

▶️ That age is now the determinant factor in British politics.

Northerners & the “left behinds”contrary to the media myth, didn’t vote for Brexit - home owning older voters did.


So many people who fell for the “northerners voted Brexit” myth are now confused as to why these supposed “left behinds” vote Tory.

But it’s only once you deconstruct this myth can you see what’s really happening.

This also explains why London....


Many London remainers even themselves but into the myth that the capital is thus (say it quietly) morally better: we at least voted remain & don’t vote Tory - but this is part of the same myth..

..and here why.
Read 8 tweets
2 May

Rumours circulating there may be more to UK & Norway’s failure to reach a deal than at 1st seems.

Original reporting stressed misunderstanding... now looks like UK govt tried to force Norway to renegotiate Pre 1970s access - legal action cannot be ruled out now.

From reports doing the rounds it seems UK overestimated Norway’s readiness to stick with PRE-EU fishing agreements.

UK was geared for discussion on “status quo plus” - while Norway felt no legal obligation to even respect the existing status quo with post Brexit UK.

Problem for UK negotiators is that Norway’s
1. Very rich
2. Part of the EEA
3. Fishing lobby is strong

Given this it’s unclear what UK could offer 🇳🇴.

In effect 🇳🇴 could simply tell 🇬🇧 “If you don’t like it - take us to court”.
Read 5 tweets
29 Apr
I’ve stopped making fun of those English immigrants in Spain who live in an old fashioned British time bubble in english pubs with English TV, because in a weird way... a liberal & remainer I’m actually them.

- A small thread on a strange phenomenon -

We’re familiar with that immigrant cliche. The, for example, Turk who moves to Germany becomes more & more German and yet retains, cherishes a Turkish idea of himself & the land of his youth even as Turkey becomes modern...& then when returning “home” doesn’t recognize it..

I’ve noticed a strange thing happening with me & Britain.
I’m British. I’m English.
I never even bothered to think about.

But the referendum.
& more importantly the post brexit tragedy following it, didn’t challenge my European identity - it, for the 1st time, confirmed it.
Read 7 tweets
28 Apr

"Boris Johnson will himself judge if he broke any rules over Downing Street flat refurbishment"

A committee will be set up to look into the matter, but it is understood Boris Johnson to make final decision on his behaviour.

Number of newspapers and media sources now reporting this.…

Boris Johnson has appointed Lord Christopher Geidt to head the committee. Lord Geidt has been a member of the Royal Household and in intelligence Service for much of his career.
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
I’m always intrigued when British people who are (supposedly) self-declared friends of Ireland call for #Irexit.

- A short thread on what would immediately happen -

#Irexit would have all the problems of Brexit multiplied because of its smaller size, but that isn’t even the worst of it.

The worst thing would be everyone would assume Ireland would leave the EURO. Because how & why would you stay inside EURO but outside the EU?

& then..

So if everyone assumes Ireland would leave the EURO why would anyone keep any savings or cash in Irish banks?

To protect the EURO value of your savings you would simply transfer these to other EU state accounts before your money was converted into as yet unknown currency.
Read 10 tweets
28 Apr
What could possibly explain this strange phenomenon?

..& to the dullards who are saying this will be a boom for English workers. Think actually think about what you are suggesting.

You want Brexit to be a tool whereby we lose a particular cohort of young foreigners from doing modestly paid work and replace them with Brits....

..but the foreigners U.K. govt’s welcomes is for higher paid work.

In other words the role of Brexit is to create incentives for Brits to take lower skilled lower pay work...and foreigners to take higher paid work.

What sort of a country thinks this is good idea?
Read 5 tweets

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