Los límites a la Incidencia Acumulada que nos imponen para volver a la normalidad son ANTICIENTÍFICOS, ARBITRARIOS e IMPOSIBLES DE CUMPLIR.
Su valor es SEIS veces más bajo que lo conocido por la Ciencia.
El Umbral de peligro Epidémico era de casi 60 casos/100K en tasa semanal.
El método se puede encontrar en los informes del RENAVE y es un estudio de las series históricas de la epidemia de virus respiratorios (sí, TAMBIÉN los coronavirus) para cada región, puesto que hay grandes diferencias en el complejo clima español.
Determina el límite REAL, sobre datos históricos, en el que la incidencia se observa epidémica en los resultados hospitalarios.
El dato ÚTIL: cuándo y dónde hay que empezar a prestar más atención o incluso reforzar la atención
El Umbral de Fase Basal: la Normalidad
Ronda entre los 33 de Baleares y los 125 de Canarias, y la media nacional es de 58 casos/100.000 por semana.
Estados acostumbrados a la de 14 días, se usa bastante menos en epidemiología, como el RENAVE demuestra, pero como es el~doble, es más grande, y da más miedo.
La memez Covid, en cambio, establece unos límites redondos arbitrarios y universales, uniformes en todo el país (se podía decir el mundo), sin ni siquiera el más mínimo atisbo de justificación en la ciencia, ni en las consecuencias.
Pero son LA LEY, y condicionan nuestras vidas.
Si comparamos el Umbral científico con el arbitrario del Covid vemos que las cifras que hasta ahora considerábamos como fase basal, NO Epidemia, nada de lo que preocuparse, serían ahora RIESGO MEDIO.
El nivel NARANJA, 3/5.
Un despropósito.
Lo que CUALQUIER otro año hubiera sido científicamente motivo de calma, sería RIESGO ALTO en 3 comunidades bajo los ridiculous criterios Covid.
Para Canarias sería RIESGO EXTREMO, el máximo.
Vais a morir todos.
Cualquier otro año: sigan con sus vidas, disfruten de la playa.
Ahora ya sabes que el límite es arbitrario, en CONTRA de ciencia establecida y útil hasta hoy, y situado en un límite político descaradamente inferior al del peligro Epidémico Real y prácticamente IMPOSIBLE de cumplir:
¿Vas a seguir aceptando que condicionen tu vida con él?
Un extra:
Ese Umbral científico TAMBIÉN se traspasaba, así como los límites de más niveles de riesgo establecidos según su criterio; sin que nadie se volviera loco e implantara ninguna de las restricciones absurdas del Covid.
Se vigilaba y reforzaba sanidad.
Nada más.
Ciencia.
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Spain's (surely everywhere's) limits for Covid Incidence Rate are purely arbitrary, and politically decided to be impossible to accomplish.
They are SIX TIMES LOWER than scientifically calculated values.
What we considered NO RISK, basal phase, becomes MEDIUM (3/5) RISK in CV.
I finally could find the Epidemic Threshold for Influenza Like Illnesses.
It's defined by a serious study based in historical AND regional data relating Incidence Rate and hospital outcomes.
A useful tool too understand when epidemic occurs and extra attention should be paid.
Opposing arbitrary WORLDWIDE Covid monolithic criteria, it settles different statistical values for each region
Basal phase limit varies between 33-125 cases/100K a week.
It makes sense, Spain is complex, from Continental Castile to tropical Canarias.
Private companies are deciding what the truth is,&it's fear
Here, in YouTube policies on Covid, demonetization threatens influencers, if they don't accomplish Covid Narrative
Curious distress from restrictions ISN'T acceptable, while hospital images provide 'context of a story'
This a famous Spanish youtuber, with a music channel, in a video on Chopin.
While he refers to tuberculosis he AVOIDS to even say Covid in a virus/bacteria comparison, and he adds 'i don't want to say it, or YouTube will demonetize this video'.
Threaten works.
I get to know thanks to this tweet, and I get shocked by how nude censorship was operating.
Imagine if you just can name Covid in a casual comparison about Chopin's death, how harsh the punishment could be if you dare to critic the lesser Covid narrative
Everytime u hear a VARIANT explanation, always scary, be sure u're considered dumb
Now, it is the India variant
The process is always the same, variant detection, increase in cases and horrible local images in media: now, same Indian CPResuscitation and funeral pyres everywhere
Media Fear Porn on Indian Variant began last March.
Guess what was growing then in India?
Bingo
Testing DOUBLED
They're recurring India now cos brute numbers are HUGE
"Pandemic in India" is ONE FIFTH of the whole world's epidemic.
When POP scaled nothing special going on there
South Africa Variant?
Let's check.
SA variant media fear campaign began December '20.
Again, testing rocketed x4.
In this crazy antiscientifical system that means for times more CASES too.
WORST NUMBER OF CASES IN A DAY IN ANY COUNTRY, decorated with terrible burning corpses images.
At the same time the Indian Double Variant appears as The New Threaten.
A little detail is left apart:
~1.4 BILLION inhabitants
If we scale to Population India's figures we notice it's quite NOTHING extraordinary going on there.
Both cases and deaths are in what we experienced as low range for this crisis.
Talking about Armageddon in India today with similar, even lower, figures is pure PROPAGANDA.
Guess what is really growing?
As usual, tests.
In the last ~2 months, test pressure was more than DOUBLED.
Cases (and detected deaths) grow at test rates.
The old very same Fear Trick
They sold 3K deaths in China like The End of the World.
Are we stupid enough to swallow again?
Every Friday, the Spain's daily report includes a test done/positivity graph.
It allows us to directly check test policy Vs perceived epidemic.
Apart from the yet officially unexplained partial relation between them (more test, more positivity), we can check trends.
While positivity follows a harmonic waving, we observe 2 prominent abrupt spikes in testing, unrelated to any trend change in positivity.
1st is JUST the week before Xmas, 2nd the week before Easter.
How appropriate.
Just preforming the Irresponsible behaviour during holidays.
Now we're under extra test pressure, the Easter Bump, the little valley is due to holiday testing cease, and inner political issue (Madrid elections) is to blame for the delayed decrease.
We've refined a little more our Old Fake estimate as function of Ct values.
Madrid dataset we use included 3 Ct frames, <20, 20-30 & >30.
Our equation changes slightly:
%Old positivity=(Ct-28)/3
It brings a good approximate to calculated Old Detection:
Method used for this refinement was considering all the Ct>20 as true positive and considering Average Ct for >20.
We observe the calculated Old Positivity fits with this average Ct, and we used to estimate the relation.
Our equation also models that every point the Ct Average grows, the Old Positivity increases ~30%, so around Ct~31 and over your detecting almost only Old Fake Positives.