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Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
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4 May, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Loving this chart from BCG: 120 equipment manufacturers active in upstream and downstream of hydrogen.

Source: bcg.com/en-gb/publicat…
Electrolysers are the single biggest market. OEMs active across electrolysers and fuel cells can leverage manufacturing synergies to accelerate the cost curve for competitive advantage.
But stack manufacturing synergies will only get you so far. Balance of plant can account for as much as half of electrolyser system costs.
Important savings can come from closer coupling of electrolysers with renewable energy sources. Just yesterday @nelhydrogen announced its partnership with @FirstSolar

nelhydrogen.com/press-release/…
I reckon the last companies standing at the end of the hydrogen battle royale will be those that:

1) Multiply manufacturing experience across upstream and downstream
2) Minimise balance of plant through embedded coupling with solar
No coincidence that world's largest PV manufacturer, Chinese Longi Solar, is looking to get into hydrogen

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @gnievchenko

Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
5 May
🚨ICYMI: Last week, @ETC_energy released two exciting deep dives; one on electrification, the other on #hydrogen

🧵with some of my favorite charts 👇(1/9) Image
🏭Debates around future hydrogen demand are heated, but we can all agree on it's importance for the industrial sector.

🔥 Small role in building heat

🚛🚢✈️Important role in transport, but sub-sectoral allocation varies

⚡️I'd say power is the wildcard here (2/9) Image
Here's a more detailed breakdown of ETC's scenarios. Power sector demand could be x3 what's displayed in the previous tweet. My takeaway is that the power sector could very well turn out to be the largest consumer of hydrogen. (3/9) Image
Read 9 tweets
Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
28 Sep 20
Everything you wanted to know about the #hydrogen economy but were too busy to research.

Part 2: International hydrogen markets could be a thing, but don’t bet on hydrogen shipping

1/18
In February I argued green H2 could undercut fossil H2 as early as 2030, conditional on two points:

1) Driving electrolyser capex below $250/kW, but more importantly

2) 1,500 hours per year of zero-cost green power per electrolyser

2/18

If the recent EU Hydrogen strategy comes to fruition, the first point should be easy.

But as hydrogen scales, 1,500 hours per year of free power per electrolyser would become increasingly hard to find.

3/18

Read 22 tweets
Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
25 Sep 20
I see lots of excitement around Goldman Sachs July hydrogen note.

I think it’s a hack-job written with anchor bias from gas analysts. The entire ‘analysis’ can be recreated with a 4x4 excel table.

But let me throw some more shade.

marketwatch.com/articles/goldm…
“e-hydrogen could turn into the largest electricity consumer and double power demand in Europe”

This idea is of course borne out of some outlandish hydrogen demand scenarios. The analysis we did with Aurora showed there’s no way we could power all that electrolysis affordably.
“The reconversion of gas plants into hydrogen turbines could lift combined cycle gas turbine operators Uniper, Engie and RWE.”

I have two words for the Goldman team: fuel cells.

I am convinced these will eat turbines in long term. Thermal assets are stranded assets.
Read 6 tweets
Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
16 Sep 20
Daimler announces expansion of their #EV truck line. Two new trucks coming in similar class:

Battery-electric eActros with 500km range going into serial production in 2024.

Fuel-cell electric GenH2 with 1,000km range. Trials in 2023 with serial production in “second half 2020”
eActros concept Image
And GenH2. You can see the additional fuel cell equipment housed in the black box behind cabin. Image
Read 8 tweets
Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
17 Aug 20
Recent EU hydrogen strategy aims for 2x40 GW electrolyser deployment by 2030. Half within the EU, half in neighboring countries like Morocco and Ukraine.

What will EU hydrogen strategy mean for electrolyser prices? A minithread 👇👇👇 (1/7)
1) Assuming alkaline electrolysers
2) Using nel-Nikola deal with $350/kW as a reference point, realized in 2023
3) Applying 17% learning rate

Gives $112-136/kW by 2030, depending on deployment targets. (2/7)
By coincidence, these prices reminded me of batteries, another storage technology with a learning rate of ~18%. Plotting indexed prices shows similar pathways. But I believe that my electrolyser curve is not steep enough. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Gniewomir Flis Profile picture
10 Aug 20
Short rant: that’s one way to perpetuate the status quo. Hydrogen has some critical uses, but the extent of its penetration in consumer markets is a function of our attitude to waste and centralisation.
Circularity is gaining momentum as a key theme. Another key point is that energy companies are basically profit machines for the few. Take residential heat for example. Most profits from repurposing the gas grid will go to current owners.
Now imagine we built new, passive houses or energy co-ops instead. How many new jobs would that create? How much less energy would we need in the long run? How empowering and equitable would it be for communities?

Power to the people, by the people, for the people.
Read 4 tweets

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