So @President_MU presents some positive news this evening. Things are steady, but not steady in a good place.
This is his take :
Here are some estimates of R (how fast this is growing or shrinking)
In brief, it has stopped going up, which is good, and it's likely to stay close to 1 for the next while - so case numbers will fall very slowly.
Despite much pointless haranguing, case rates in Donegal are falling steadily.
These are rates over 14 days.
These are county level rates over 7 days
I worry about the rise in Cork.
Recent rates of #COVID19 by age tell a story of two pandemics - one falling in older people, likely due to vaccination and social isolation.
The other, rising, quire fast, in younger people, including school going children.
Hospitalization rates are falling for older people, but still quite high for those in their 60's. Again, this is very likely vaccination plus social isolation.
Positive test percentage is steady, or viewed with the eye of faith, could be falling very very slowly.
Here is the last 60 days of test results.
Steady for the last month.
So, we're in a race to get vaccines done, before the next spike in cases. So far we are neck and neck.
This costs
400 cases/day
~ 2 unnecessary deaths/day
40 to 50 cases of #LongCovid
We'd be much more likely to win if we let local public health teams do their job.
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More from @astaines

8 Oct 20
Choices - a thread

#COVID19 is rising all over Ireland and has been rising at about the same rate for many weeks.
Left to itself we will have 1,000 cases a day in November, and 4,000 a day for Christmas.
The health service will melt, and many people will die.
We should perhaps have gone to level 4 on September 1st.
After some drama we've now gone to Level 3 which may help to stabilize the situation, but is unlikely to make it better.
We have two choices, I think.
1) Living with the virus
2) Eliminating the virus

Both are costly, neither is painless.
Read 14 tweets
21 Aug 20
This is not a good answer to what is a very reasonable question.
The key argument is that we can swap high contacts in adults, for very low contacts in adults and high contacts in kids in school.
That’s not true.
What’s a contact?
It’s spending enough time close enough to someone, and often enough, for effective viral transfer. It’s a (probably) non-linear function of distance, time and *frequency*.
For household contacts the average risk of infection is fairly high, at about 15% to 30%.
It’s much worse in very crowded houses.
Read 11 tweets
16 Sep 19
Getting ready for the @DCU_Brexit_Inst seminar today on #Brexit and finance.
Now @Paschald preparing for the start of the session.
Our president @muirtheimhne opens the session in his usual fluent Irish.
This is part of the @DCU_Brexit_Inst series of seminars.
Read 17 tweets
10 Apr 19
Talking on @BreakfastNT about the NCH report
@LeoVaradkar described it as 'pretty grim reading' He wasn't wrong.
So what next?…
1/ The report is utterly damming of the NPH Development Board
Did not challenge the executives
Left crucial decisions to their design team (contractors)
Signed off on a flawed business case
Failed to oversee risk registers
2/ But
The NPHDB had 19 staff for a €1 billion project
Had a process driven by a desire for speed
Were given a tendering process (2 stage) which is *known* to be risky
Took too long to set up their executive
Read 10 tweets

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