The RBI policy was not much of a change today. They said banks can restructure MSME and individual loans. This just means evergreening, because banks are simply NOT reducing rates even for stressed borrowers.
If you're in trouble, banks can now say okay we'll stretch your loan for longer time. This also they don't do unless you actually default. Then, they don't cut the interest rate - even if their own borrowing costs are down.
You actually want more banks to come in now. Who don't have the legacy and who'll take over the market by offering lower rates, starting with good borrowers. So to fight, everyone will have to cut rates. You need the competition now, can't be a diktat.
RBI's other concept is nice: Give a lifeline to small business banks, and say their lending to microfinanciers is priority sector. That reduces regulatory baggage to an extent, but won't actually encourage further lending.
The biggest deal is this: Banks will be allowed to use 100% of the floating provision or countercyclical buffer to move to specific NPA provisioning. This is big because it protects the banks (who earlier created buffers either smartly, or because RBI forced them to).
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Retail individual investors are the biggest player in our markets. Not FIIs, and not mutual funds. Look at the equity market (non derivative). (Thread)
45% of India's stock market volumes are from retail investors. Up from 33% in 2016.
FIIs went from 23% down to 11%. Domestic institutions at 7%.
And look at the index futures market:
Individuals do 39% of index futures. FIIs merely 15%.
Domestic institutions are 1% - Rest is mostly prop books of brokers.
In index options, prop books dominate at 39%, but retail's gone up from 22% to 32%. FIIs only 16%.
From the economic survey: India's debt situation isn't that horrible. Total debt, which includes debt taken from abroad, is about 122% of GDP - where government debt is 70%. Remember this - because most other countries have hiher govt debt and much higher private debt.
If Covid has hit us badly - and it has, even if markets are like what is wrong with you Deepak - we will recover the fastest. It's just math, though - just getting back from a steeper fall is a higher rate.
Does Franklin get away clean after this episode? My thoughts have been with unit holders, but I think we need to speak of a SERIOUS fine for Franklin Mutual Fund for bringing this episode to this shameful end. (Thread)
First, SEBI needs to fine Franklin an entire two years of management fees on the shuttered funds. The money needs to be added back as cash to the funds immediately. This should be upwards of 300 cr. and a decent coverage for defaults if any.
Second, SEBI should appoint a different mutual fund - perhaps one that has much better debt experience, and I'm looking at you, IDFC MF, which should take over the closing down operation of all the shuttered funds immediately. Pay the appointed fund a fee from the Franklin fine.
Folks - if you can't pay back your EMI, please create a new bank account at a different bank (Kotak, IDFC and a few others allow it to created online) - idfcfirstbank.com/content/idfcse…
Also notify your lender that you are unable to pay your EMI and to not auto-debit.
Also notify your current bank to not honour any auto-debit from the lender as the loan is under negotiation, and thus to not charge you auto-debit fees.
Then keep zero balance in that account. Get your lender to negotiate, reduce rates, and give you more time.
Laxmi Vilas Bank placed under moratorium. This means they're going to mount a rescue of some sort. It's a small bank but we expect
a) Tier 1/2 bond writedowns
b) Equity capital will need to be infused for a rescue
They have Tier 1 + 2 capital of 148 cr. (march 2020) which would have dwindled further. Even a full write down of Tier 2 bonds - roughly 270 cr. - will not be enough. The bank needs 1300 cr. of capital, at the very least.