Time to update EU vaccination data; A clearer pic is emerging with MT and HU well ahead due to threshold and timing effect on vacc deliveries (MT) and RU/CH supply (HU), while BG, LV and CR lag behind EU average (Note - NL data a week old) 1/10
Apart from MT/HU at top and BG/LV/CR at bottom, rest of EU27+NO+IS increasingly clustering in the middle as some earlier frontrunners (DK/NO) suspend AZ vaccinations. This = best practices spreading and binding vacc supply (AZ overreliance?) constraints in BG/LV/CR. 2/10
A good news story is - despite it all - the acceleration in FR vaccinations, as gov appears to be using virtually all vaccs as they become available. Simple model suggests (if maintained) FR levels ~225k/day next 14days rising to ~385k/day after Apr 11 for rest of Apr 3/10
DE situation relatively worse, as vacc utilization remains only ~80%, which if maintained in Apr ~420k/day. BUT if DE reached current FR (near full) utilization by end-Apr, DE could reach ~585k/day for entire Apr. Why not @jensspahn? @ArminLaschet? 4/10
Overall EU vacc supply news very positive and indicative of reaching the EU target of 70% of the 18y+ population by end-Q2, whether one uses the numbers given by @ThierryBreton or @vonderleyen in recent days. 5/10
The supply picture raises the question of why the @EU_Commission seems so focused on issues of general "proportionality/reciprocity" with the UK, rather than just on ensuring that its APA with @AstraZeneca is delivered on? Was there any real point in the tightening of trade 6/10
certification procedures for vaccines by @EU_Commission last week? Not really it seems. @EUCouncil statement makes it clear that member states with large pharma biz will be extremely reluctant to use it and does the obvious focus on the UK make 7/10 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
any sense? No! The UK is a tiny vaccine producer - estimates vary from 2.5-4mn/month (since Dec) in domestic UK production capacity = even if "reciprocity" was achieved, it would be largely meaningless for the EU in terms of extra vaccines. Yes, it is likely annoying for 8/10
@EU_Commission that basically the ENTIRE UK vaccine outperformance can be attributed to EU vacc exports to EU (33.8mn-21mn = 12.8mn = 18.7% of UK population = ~current vaccine level of DK and EST), but why is @vonderleyen basically making the UK into the EU "vaccine peer" by 9/10
insisting on a numerically close to meaningless "reciprocity" just as EU vacc supply is about to pick up? @EU_Commission should focus on the positive vacc story about to unfold. See also my comments to @danielboffey here. END theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…

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More from @jfkirkegaard

17 Mar
@vonderleyen was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n
Moreover, IF you assume the EU had adopted the UK/US "NO Exports stance" Q1 supply would have been 144mn (not 100mn) and assuming no export + @AstraZeneca contract compliance would yielded ~200mn in Q1 for the EU+NO+IS, or about double the actual 100mn. 2/n
Crucially, actual Q2 supply (if you x2 J&J supply to make them comparable) will be 410mn doses, rising to 520mn if @AstraZeneca had adhered to its contract. EU exports in Q2 are obviously not known yet. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
15 Mar
Hvad skal EU - og derfor DK - goere for at undgaa at den nuvaerende vaccine situation gentages i en fremtidig pandemi som naeppe er 100aar vaek? Det drejer sig om penge og om at EU har nok af dem fra start - mit forslag fra @PIIE + traad #DKpol #dkmedier piie.com/blogs/realtime…
EU har allerede en af verdens stoerste pharma-sektorer og er verdens stoerste producent/eksportoer af vacciner, saa alle ingredienserne er her allerede. Den tilstraekkelige mobilisering kraever blot en mere offensiv EU politik end noget stoerre parti i DK @Spolitik @venstredk 2/9
har haft fantasi til i aartier - desvaerre! Enhver global pandemi vil altid give flaskehalse og alles-kamp-mod-alle saa snart en vaccine er udviklet. Vacciner er risikable og dyre at udvikle, hvorfor indkoeberen skal have evnen til at tage store finansielle risici saa tidligt 3/9
Read 10 tweets
15 Mar
What lessons should the EU and its member states learn to prevent its current troubled vaccine rollout from being repeated in a future where pandemics seem likely to be more frequent? In a new @PIIE piece, I lay out why it is mostly about money! 1/7 piie.com/blogs/realtime…
In any pandemic where vaccines are quickly and successfully developed, it is invariable that supply constraints and a "zero sum" game develop among advanced economies desperate to inoculate their populations. Having, as the EU does, a large domestic pharma-sector is an 2/7
obvious important advantage, but arguably more important is the ability, which the @EU_Commission does currently NOT have, to take large financial/fiscal risks early in the pandemic to ASAP support R&D, scale up production capacity and secure vaccines. The US with Operation 3/7
Read 8 tweets
8 Mar
DK's vaccinationshastighed synes stagnerende - igaar 16-17k/dag. Det er imidlertid ca. det tempo man maa forvente i marts, jf. sidste uges SSI vaccine leverance update, samt annonceringen af en 100k/dag "stoerre skala test" i de kommende uger. 1 hurtig 1/n ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
model viser at ca. 16.900/dag (+ en successfuld 100k/dag test) bruger de af SSI forventede vacciner vi faar i marts og indtil paaske. No great - men bedst tilgaengelige data @mikaelmilhoj? Inden man skriger paa handling fra @Statsmin og flere DK regeringsbesoeg hos 2/n
korruptionsanklagede ledere af hoejre-ekstreme koalitionsregeringer i valgkamp i ikke-vaccine producerende lande som ISR, saa gav @vonderleyen et interessant interview til TV i Mette F's "Best friend forever" @sebastiankurz's AT soendag med nogen 3/n orf.at/stories/320437…
Read 8 tweets
8 Mar
:-) - so time to update EU vacc data (again), since some new developments (and data) have emerged. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. @DrAlisonSmith kindly showed me the NL dashboard 1/15 coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vacc…
with Dutch data (implying I've been misreporting the nationally available Dutch weekly data by jab). "old" data from Feb 28 now included, though if you use the March 6th total# for NL of ~1.6mn, you'd get 9.2% of total pop, or a place between AT and ES. Consistent data 2/15
remains challenging. Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed in recent weeks. 3/15
Read 15 tweets
8 Mar
Time to Update EU vacc data, where last week saw some noticeable developments. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. BG, LV and (remarkably) NL CR LU remain bottom. Wealth and imminent elections matters not? 1/15
Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed, though NL and LU much less so (yet?). 2/15
More information is available from some MS for vacc-deliveries in March, allowing for rudimentary forecasting of vacc-speeds here MS until end-Q1. In DK, operating with essentially zero inventory (and a 100k/day large-scale test planned), no additional vacc-acceleration from 3/15
Read 4 tweets

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