Thread by @jfkirkegaard

Time to update EU vaccination data; A clearer pic is emerging with MT and HU well ahead due to threshold and timing effect on vacc deliveries (MT) and RU/CH supply (HU), while BG, LV and CR lag behind EU average (Note - NL data a week old) 1/10

Apart from MT/HU at top and BG/LV/CR at bottom, rest of EU27+NO+IS increasingly clustering in the middle as some earlier frontrunners (DK/NO) suspend AZ vaccinations. This = best practices spreading and binding vacc supply (AZ overreliance?) constraints in BG/LV/CR. 2/10

A good news story is - despite it all - the acceleration in FR vaccinations, as gov appears to be using virtually all vaccs as they become available. Simple model suggests (if maintained) FR levels ~225k/day next 14days rising to ~385k/day after Apr 11 for rest of Apr 3/10

DE situation relatively worse, as vacc utilization remains only ~80%, which if maintained in Apr ~420k/day. BUT if DE reached current FR (near full) utilization by end-Apr, DE could reach ~585k/day for entire Apr. Why not @jensspahn? @ArminLaschet? 4/10

Overall EU vacc supply news very positive and indicative of reaching the EU target of 70% of the 18y+ population by end-Q2, whether one uses the numbers given by @ThierryBreton or @vonderleyen in recent days. 5/10

The supply picture raises the question of why the @EU_Commission seems so focused on issues of general "proportionality/reciprocity" with the UK, rather than just on ensuring that its APA with @AstraZeneca is delivered on? Was there any real point in the tightening of trade 6/10

certification procedures for vaccines by @EU_Commission last week? Not really it seems. @EUCouncil statement makes it clear that member states with large pharma biz will be extremely reluctant to use it and does the obvious focus on the UK make 7/10 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

any sense? No! The UK is a tiny vaccine producer - estimates vary from 2.5-4mn/month (since Dec) in domestic UK production capacity = even if "reciprocity" was achieved, it would be largely meaningless for the EU in terms of extra vaccines. Yes, it is likely annoying for 8/10

@EU_Commission that basically the ENTIRE UK vaccine outperformance can be attributed to EU vacc exports to EU (33.8mn-21mn = 12.8mn = 18.7% of UK population = ~current vaccine level of DK and EST), but why is @vonderleyen basically making the UK into the EU "vaccine peer" by 9/10

insisting on a numerically close to meaningless "reciprocity" just as EU vacc supply is about to pick up? @EU_Commission should focus on the positive vacc story about to unfold. See also my comments to @danielboffey here. END theguardian.com/world/2021/mar…

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