Thread by @jfkirkegaard

@vonderleyen was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n

Moreover, IF you assume the EU had adopted the UK/US "NO Exports stance" Q1 supply would have been 144mn (not 100mn) and assuming no export + @AstraZeneca contract compliance would yielded ~200mn in Q1 for the EU+NO+IS, or about double the actual 100mn. 2/n

Crucially, actual Q2 supply (if you x2 J&J supply to make them comparable) will be 410mn doses, rising to 520mn if @AstraZeneca had adhered to its contract. EU exports in Q2 are obviously not known yet. 3/n

Cumulatively, this means - with an 18y+ population in EU27+NO+IS of 370mn - that the @EU_Commission's target of 70% is now essentialy achievable by end of Q2 - i.e. it is NOT "end of summer", but "beginning of Summer" that @vonderleyen's data suggests the EU will achieve. 4/n

Obviously, if you assume that the EU had no exports and @astrazeneca had delivere, the target would have been reached faster and 100% would be within reach in Q2. however, given that the EU is likely to reach its target by end-Q2 and be able to reopen the economy by then, 5/n

the escalatory exp rhetoric from @vonderleyen seem exaggerated. Why do this vs. UK - a tiny insular vaccine producer - whose rollout performance you are likely to match more or less anyway before the summer? supplychains matter! @berndlange is right. END

https://twitter.com/berndlange/status/1372174769412583430

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