Thread by @Robert_E_Kelly

Everyone is complaining about what a dud the new Biden N Korea policy review was. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

It basically recommends deterrence/containment/sanction/isolation, which is what we've done for decades.

There is a reason we keep coming back to this posture - bc all

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the other alternatives have clear downsides:

A. The hawkish/conservative alternative - to use force or drones as we do so often in the greater Middle East - is hugely risky. NK has lots of capabilities to hit back, and SK is very vulnerable, especially with its capital right

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on the border (a terrible strategic problem which really ties US-ROK military hands)

B. The dovish/liberal alternative - engagement and concessions - has a poor record of success. NK loves stringing out talks forever as a way of muddying the waters and creating the perception

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of progress while not actually doing anything meaningful. NK has also a record of cheating, so any serious deal requires verification which is hard for a paranoid, orwellian slave state. This is also why a grand bargain, like SK President Moon and Trump sought, is nearly

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impossible - neither side trusts each other enough. And summit diplomacy without a big bang deal is a terrible idea, bc meeting POTUS or POTROK confers legitimacy on NK as a normal country and on the Kims, who are basically the worst people in the world.

So can we talk to NK?

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Yes, but as the review says, we should start small and build up: agree & complete a few small deals first. These can build trust, rack up genuine gains (instead of waiting for some elusive silver bullet summit deal to fix everything), and slowly get larger with each iteration.

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