Thread by @laurnorman

Some thoughts on where we are ok #IranTalks based around various sources. Last week’s discussions really made no progress. Two fundamental problems. 1/ the indirect talks are badly slowing things down. Decisions that could be made quickly are taking much longer and lack of -1-

clarity of what precise positions and potential trade offs on offer are because not in same room. 2/ as @BarakRavid has reported, on the nuclear side Iran has stepped up demands. And it’s offering no clarity of what it will do when on the difficult things. As a result...

there is a growing sense that striking a full deal by mid May or by May 21 IAEA-Iran agreement is very unlikely on western side. That is leading again to exploring ideas of a political agreement/framework to hold what progress there’s been in place before end May and then -3-

coming back to this after Iran elections. That’s not a plan. But it is an option. And of course no-one can rule out sudden progress that brings a deal this month. But not at rate we’re going. That said, I sense relatively little doubt that at some stage next couple of months-4-

there will be a deal. Ultimately the trade offs here are much less complex than building the JCPOA because the agreement exists. This could come together quite quickly if there is clear political desire for it. Internal divisions in Iran appear real. But no evidence Iran -5-

decision makers really want to abandon a deal that has such big economic benefits for them. Bigger questions about whether they want to pocket these under Rouhani or a new president. -6-

On sanctions side, yes there’s been swift progress on which sectors will have sanctions lifted and some clarification by US of what that means in terms of suspending or changing designations. But a point that’s repeatedly missed is that was baked EXPLICITLY into deal so -7-

there’s no surprise there from baseline that Biden admin wants to return. But can make big difference in those sectors whether many individual entities and people are still terror sanctioned or not - not least when comes to entities like IRGC. My sense is progress around this -8-

stalled last week because Americans felt they’d offered quite a lot of clarity on sanctions whereas Iran was offering none on nuclear side. Feeling that it was Iran’s turn to set out their intentions for returning to compliance. was also genuine annoyance about Iran media-9-

leaks talking about progress in talks and on prisoners while US delegation were flying home. Feeling that these were badly misleading and falsely raised hopes of prisoner families. So talks will resume in next couple of days. Looks like it will probably be a couple of Rocky-10-

weeks ahead with much talk and jostling over concerns about Iran pulling back @iaeaorg cooperation after May 21st creating some drama. But in my view, the wise guess is that @rafaelmgrossi will win a few weeks reprieve on that from Tehran. And that one way or other,there will-11-

be a deal in place as early as start of June or at latest over the summer. Not a certainty. But pretty high chance. -12-