1/ I have been asked about the mechanics of buying a #BTC option on an exchange which operates in #BTC (not USD) like Deribit or Phemex. This causes confusion, unsurprisingly. We are used to exchanges which operate in USD with a strike price in USD.
2/ Deribit, for example, operates in #BTC. Prices of options ON #BTC and thus profits FROM #BTC options are denominated in #BTC. You don’t come across USD except for the strike price.
3/ So when I bought a 160,000 Call expiring 31-Dec-21 this morning when #BTC was at about $57.3, I paid 0.0510 #BTC. Or $2,963. The questions were asked – what happens if it expires at #BTC $60,000, $120,000, $160,000 or $200,000
4/ If on 23rd December #BTC is at $160,000 my option is worth $3.70 = effectively zero. If it is at $60,000 or $120,000 its IS worth zero. But at $200,000 it is worth $40,595 dollars. Or 0.20 bitcoin. My amount of bitcoin has gone up 4x; my investment in $ has gone up 13x.
5/ If on 23rd December #BTC is at $250,000 my option is worth $90,017. Or 0.36 bitcoin. My amount of bitcoin has gone up 7x; my investment in $ has gone up 30x.
6/ So in summary I have taken out a highly geared long position on #BTC in which I have invested $2,963. If #BTC gets close to the s2fx numbers this year, I might take home $90,000. And the worst that could happen is I lose $2,963.
Last night I used the remainder of my £20,000 of bitcoin at Derebit to add another 1.8 of 100,000 Dec call to my fledgling portfolio of £20,000 invested. Will keep you posted.
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An innocent DM "How do you handle risk in your portfolio given you keep buying £20k slugs of #btc?" generates three to me deep questions which are not typically CT material. What is risk? What is a portfolio? What is your position size?
I learned risk at the feet of Peter L Bernstein in the 1980s. Sitting in front of a huge tank in the Monterey Aquarium, Peter suggested we had conducted a sophisticated risk analysis before joining the dinner. We had considered what would happen if the giant glass tank behind
his head exploded disgorging various sharks of varying size and presumably appetites onto our laps. Now we had evaluated inter alia the design issues of the tank, the half life time of survival of a beached shark, and the value of our clothes were they to be soaked....
1/ What is wealthy? Traditional “High Net Worth” is liquid assets (excluding your principal house and subtracting mortgages and other debts) of one to five million USD. I suggest that is on the low side today, but I think we would all agree $2.5m of investable assets is wealthy.
2/ So lets assume you haven’t borrowed to buy your bitcoin. Nor have any other investments. How many bitcoin do you need to have HODLed to meet that HNW target?
3/ at $50,000 you need 50 #BTC – an unattainable target for almost anyone not in Crypto before say mid 2020