1/ What is wealthy? Traditional “High Net Worth” is liquid assets (excluding your principal house and subtracting mortgages and other debts) of one to five million USD. I suggest that is on the low side today, but I think we would all agree $2.5m of investable assets is wealthy.
2/ So lets assume you haven’t borrowed to buy your bitcoin. Nor have any other investments. How many bitcoin do you need to have HODLed to meet that HNW target?
3/ at $50,000 you need 50 #BTC – an unattainable target for almost anyone not in Crypto before say mid 2020
4/ at $100,000 (say by July 2021…. not advice) you need 25 #BTC – still a big ask unless you were an OG
5/ but let’s assume PlanB is right, and average price exceeds $250k during the next four years – that is “only” 10 #BTC
6/ Let it sink in. Anyone who has 10 #BTC is likely to be on average a solid HNW by 2026 at the latest
7/ Not Financial Independence Retire Early (F.I.R.E) but H.S.B – High Net Worth by Stacking bitcoin
8/ Anyone who has 25 #BTC is likely to be on average a solid Very HNW (VHNW) by 2026 at the latest
9/ Anyone who has 60 #BTC is likely to be on average a solid Ultra HNW (UHNW) by 2026 at the latest
10/ Anyone who has 1.0 #BTC may well be an HNW by 2031
10/ Anyone who has 1.0 #BTC may well be an HNW by 2031
11/ This is what asymmetric bets look like
12/ So if you believe in the narrative, get HODLing while the sale is still on
13/ Later this century: “Grandpa, you really bought our family bitcoin below $100,000???”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
An innocent DM "How do you handle risk in your portfolio given you keep buying £20k slugs of #btc?" generates three to me deep questions which are not typically CT material. What is risk? What is a portfolio? What is your position size?
I learned risk at the feet of Peter L Bernstein in the 1980s. Sitting in front of a huge tank in the Monterey Aquarium, Peter suggested we had conducted a sophisticated risk analysis before joining the dinner. We had considered what would happen if the giant glass tank behind
his head exploded disgorging various sharks of varying size and presumably appetites onto our laps. Now we had evaluated inter alia the design issues of the tank, the half life time of survival of a beached shark, and the value of our clothes were they to be soaked....
1/ I have been asked about the mechanics of buying a #BTC option on an exchange which operates in #BTC (not USD) like Deribit or Phemex. This causes confusion, unsurprisingly. We are used to exchanges which operate in USD with a strike price in USD.
2/ Deribit, for example, operates in #BTC. Prices of options ON #BTC and thus profits FROM #BTC options are denominated in #BTC. You don’t come across USD except for the strike price.
3/ So when I bought a 160,000 Call expiring 31-Dec-21 this morning when #BTC was at about $57.3, I paid 0.0510 #BTC. Or $2,963. The questions were asked – what happens if it expires at #BTC $60,000, $120,000, $160,000 or $200,000