1/ 3 months ago today, Iowa ended all COVID restrictions. As you can see, it turned out to be a complete disaster, as all the replies in the thread below predicted.
2/ Compared to its neighbors, Iowa's 7 day average of daily cases has actually diverted and become lower than the Midwest average, and was spared a large spring wave seen in stricter states like Michigan.
3/ "But what if they're not testing enough?" I'm sure some would say. Seems like the other side of the same coin of the Trump "you don't find cases if you don't test" argument, but here are hospitalizations instead, compared to the midwest and national average. Still better.
4/ Speaking of hospitalizations, Iowa has the 9th lowest COVID hospitalization rate in the United States, and 3rd lowest hospitalization rate of states its size or larger (only CA and UT are lower). It's also 45% lower than the national average.
5/ Iowa has vaccinated nearly 80% of seniors in the state, which is 8th highest in the United States, and 3rd highest of states its size or larger. As seen everywhere else, seniors accounted for a vast majority of COVID deaths in Iowa (over 90%).
6/ There are states with governors that talk a lot about "equity", then there are states that actually have a pretty equitable pandemic response. People of color in Iowa were not disproportionately affected by COVID, unlike other states like California and New York.
7/ Some may mention Iowa's COVID death rate being above the national average, but their excess death rate (this includes all deaths, not just COVID) is below the national average. Maybe having a balanced, holistic pandemic response is the right call?
8/ Perhaps most importantly - 100% of schools in Iowa provide full-time in-person instruction and they have since February 15th. Iowa is one of 10 states that provides 100% full-time in-person instruction, and the 3rd largest state to do so behind Florida and South Carolina.
9/ Iowa is also ranked as the 2nd fastest-recovering state in the country when it comes to COVID health, leisure/travel, and the economy/labor market. They are the #1 state in leisure/travel recovery (restaurants, theaters, shopping centers etc). wallethub.com/edu/states-cov…
10/ So, by nearly every available metric, Iowa is doing pretty great! How have the media and "experts" covered Iowa, though? Here's an example - this Atlantic piece titled "Iowa is What Happens When Government Does Nothing" published 12/3. Hospitalizations are down 81% since.
11/ One of the so-called experts extensively quoted in this Atlantic piece is Eli Perencevich, who said Iowa's lax policies would result in a "super peak" over the holidays and thousands of preventable deaths. "The storm's coming". (No storm came).
12/ Not just a storm - a tsunami, with as many as 80 deaths per day coming a few weeks after the holidays in Iowa, according to Perencevich. The rolling average of deaths in Iowa peaked and started rapidly declining at almost the exact same time that he said this.
13/ You'd think Eli would check his biases about how much we can control a virus, but he doubled down in January, saying "things will get worse" because God forbid he saw a picture of *squints* kids playing together. (Hospitalizations are down 64% since he tweeted this.)
14/ Moving along, once Iowa lifted all COVID restrictions 3 months ago Lyz Lenz wrote this Washington Post piece titled "Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesn't care if you live or die". As you can see, it's aged well.
15/ The entire piece is condescending, elitist swill, but the closing of the article is particularly bad. "Iowa Nice" is alive and well. There are just miserable people whose brains have become so badly broken by partisan politics that they no longer see it.
16/ So there you have it. Next time you see panicked headlines promising carnage when a state lifts more COVID19 restrictions, remember Iowa, which alongside Florida, Texas etc. has helped prove seasonal stimuli are much stronger than whatever pandemic theater you put in place.
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I took population-normalized COVID hospitalizations for the 25 most stringent states on COVID policy in the US (red line), and compared them to the 25 least stringent states (blue line). Trajectory is nearly identical. Both had the same average inpatients per day - 23 per 100k.
Hospitalizations peaked for the less-stringent states January 6th, and for the more-stringent states January 7th. Pretty remarkable.
In September 2019, Johns Hopkins in partnership with WHO published a detailed report on "high-impact respiratory pathogens" that is prophetic. For example, they warned NPI policies could be abused by overreaching governments for political/social purposes, not because of evidence.
They say widespread quarantine is likely the least effective NPI to do anything, especially if the pathogen is a) airborne, b) highly transmissible. Sound familiar? They mention how the Ebola experience highlights how difficult quarantine policies can be to maintain.
They urge that every NPI that is considered must also consider any potential harms that could come from the intervention - seeing that it's well-documented that lockdowns essentially do nothing, we are left with assessing the harms of them, which will be seen for decades to come.
Thanks to an FOIA request from a determined friend here in KC, we now know the number of #COVID19 cases the Kansas City Health Department could trace from restaurants and bars between November 1st and January 31st.
The answer is 11.
2/ In addition to the extraordinarily weak contact tracing data from KCHD, the timeline and mobility data does not align at all with their narrative that these businesses have a meaningful impact on community spread. ericjusteric.medium.com/in-support-of-…
3/ Despite this, they credit "contact tracing 20-29 year olds" as well as 10 PM stoppage of indoor dining/drinking for the decrease in cases in KC, although once again the data does not align with these claims at all.
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because more people are staying home!"
Reality: According to the USC Dornsife "Understanding America" study, the percentage of people in the US staying home except for essential activities/exercise has remained around 40-45% since June
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because less people are gathering at each others' homes!"
Reality: The percentage of people in the US that have had visitors at their residence has remained between roughly 40 and 50% since May
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because more people are wearing masks!"
Reality: The percentage of people in the US that have worn masks has remained around 90-93% since July
Trisha is really going double down on this? Let’s see the mental gymnastics required to argue joggers and cyclists are a real problem with the spread of COVID
“Risk of transmitting outdoors is an order of magnitude less than indoors”
“When jogging or cycling contacts tend to be rare and fleeting”
“Exercising outdoors is one of the few freedoms people in England still have”
Off to a good start making her case so far
“The WHO is adamant that people should NOT wear masks when exercising...but there are strong arguments that challenge the WHO’s advice such as NHS hospitals are overwhelmed.” Huh?
Tired of seeing the same flawed #COVID19 Kansas mask study being shared as proof of "masks working", so I used similar methods + the same dataset and tracked what happened in mandate/non-mandate counties after their study's end date. Pretty different from what the CDC found.
The original observation in the study shared widely by the CDC was that daily cases in mask mandated counties fell while non-mask mandated counties rose. Of course, the conclusion falls apart when you re-run their experiment when SARS-CoV-2 was much more prevalent in Kansas.
Cases rose, peaked, and fell at the exact same time. Sure, the non-mask mandate counties were higher prior to the peak, but this graph does not account for counties' testing levels, and when case prevalence is so low (basically a baseline) there is a lot of room for noise.