Genome sequencing and Variants of Concern in India.
it appears to me that INSACOG - the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium - has a poor understanding of Data. In their report attached here: dbtindia.gov.in/sites/default/… there is a table that I find very puzzling.
But look at this table - it is on page 4 and is dated 5 May 2021. Focus for a moment on the total. It seems to be purely numerator data. I dont get a sense of how many samples in total were looked at.
Summarising just the country-wide picture I conclude that. 05 the 3900 samples in which genome sequencing showed a Variant of Concern (VoC) or a variant of Interest (VoI) the breakdown is as follows:
B1.617 - 1,850 ("Indian variant")
B1.117 -1,922 ("UK variant")
B.1.351 - 1,27
But what is the proportion of TOTAL samples that was B.1.617? or B.1.117? Indeed how many samples in total were studied for genome sequencing? I cannot tell from this report. Interestingly, There is an interesting map on page 5. It is as pretty as it is difficult to interpret
Roughly Punjab looks almost 75% B1.117, Maharashtra is is almost a quarter B1.617, Kerala looks 1/4th B1.117 and a bit less than that B.1.617. But numbers would have been nice.
Finally the time sequence. This looks like it is the position as on 5th May 2021. INSACOG started only on 2021 and there is no time-stamped data on the number of samples sequenced each week or month.
COG-UK the UK's genome sequencing consortium has sequenced 460,000 samples and regularly publishes its findings. cogconsortium.uk
Among COG-Uk's finest outputs (the regular reports to SAGE are boring) is this web-based tool that lets you track how each variant or mutation has changed in terms of prevalence over 2 dimensions - time and geography (These are real dimensions unlike #Sadguru's made-up dimensions
Vist this site covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/model…
For B1.117 the growth has been phenomenal. It is now the main variant but the incidence has fallen away.
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Imagine India was not a democracy. There was an Emperor in New Delhi who addressed his people once a month, strutted around the world before Covid, gave pep-talk littered with religious references at times of crisis, parleyed with kings and other world leaders; Imagine further..
That the Emperor appointed a Council of Ministers to implement his ideas and that the deal was that they credited him, the Emperor with successes, and took the blame for failures. Imagine also that the Emperor had hired an army of courtiers whose job it was to sing his praises
Imagine that these courtiers did not have to attend the durbar but instead would sit in airconditioned studios from where their Songs of Praise would be carried into peoples' homes. Imagine also that there as a peoples assembly at which the Emperor deigned periodically to attend
The daily new cases count is still above 4 lakhs, at 401,343 yesterday 7 May.
Meanwhile, the vaccination drive sputters on fitfully. It seems to bear an inverse relationship to the spread of the virus.
The Ministry of Health, @MoHFW, seems more concerned with defending the Govt agaibnst criticism. Every day it boasts about how many doses of vaccine it has given to the states "free of cost" See this from today's Press Release.
A short thread
In his interview with @manojladwa, (see link), India's Exernal Affairs Minister, @DrSJaishankar, when asked about the ongoing #SecondCOVIDWave crisis in India, acknowledged that it was a grave problem almost an "existential crisis". But then he tried..
to soften the impact on his NRI audience, he compared what India is going through to the second wave in Britain in 2020 late summer and autumn when the health services were swamped, "you've been through something similar, that is what India is going thru now"
This is not untrue, but grossly misleading. Yes Britain, at the height of the epidemic, was reporting 50k cases a day and 1,750 deaths. See chart 1. In population terms britain had far more cases and deaths (Chart 2)
A thread
India #EAM S Jaishankar's remarks at a webinar 5 May 2021.
As part of his G7 visit, @DrSJaishankar took questions on India's covid epidemic what the Govt was doing about it and other matters. @Manjoladwa was the interviewer. catch it here:
This is just my take on what he said, part opinion, part riposte, part follow on Questions.
General impression: he was typical politician, partly evasive, defensive, deflecting the tough Qs and careful to defend his Govt's record and his boss the PM.
Mr Ladwa was frank and forthright in his lead-in Questions, but far from probing and challenging when his Q was clearly being evaded. It was not, nor was it meant to be, an @maitlis style @BBCNewsnight grilling.
her message in bullet points, (I've been arguing these same points on twitter): 1. Hospital admission should only be for those needing Intensive care or assisted ventilation of some kind. 2. Use clinical and common sense to judge severity, oxymeters are not vital.
3. A CT Chest is an irrelevance in most cases. Diagnostically it offers little and it DOES NOT determine treatment or prognosis. 4. Plasma and remdesivir DO NOT SAVE Lives. Dexamethasone does. 5. Chasing after them may actually be causing harm.
A twitter thread
Subject: #India's #Covid vaccination strategy
The details of the latest policy changes are in this press release: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… from @MoHFW_INDIA
Let's ignore for a minute the repeated hagiographic references to #PMModi (see pic).
Presumably, this new policy was thrashed out at NEGVAC. If you have not heard about NEGVAC, then you have not been paying attention to my tweets. NEGVAC is National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 and we first heard about it was here: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
Ignore the fact that this is as opaque and shadowy a body as it gets considering that it will be taking decisions that will affect every Indian citizen. Focus on the new vaccine policy. It is "a Liberalised and Accelerated Phase 3 Strategy of Covid-19 Vaccination from 1st May"