A short thread
In his interview with @manojladwa, (see link), India's Exernal Affairs Minister, @DrSJaishankar, when asked about the ongoing #SecondCOVIDWave crisis in India, acknowledged that it was a grave problem almost an "existential crisis". But then he tried..
to soften the impact on his NRI audience, he compared what India is going through to the second wave in Britain in 2020 late summer and autumn when the health services were swamped, "you've been through something similar, that is what India is going thru now"
This is not untrue, but grossly misleading. Yes Britain, at the height of the epidemic, was reporting 50k cases a day and 1,750 deaths. See chart 1. In population terms britain had far more cases and deaths (Chart 2) ImageImage
But there the comparison ends. If the interviewer had been more challenging he'd have pointed out several things.
1. India's data is suspect. seriously. there are too many reports of gross undercounting not to conclude that the real figures are far worse than the official data.
2. The reason for international concern about what is happening in India is more to do with the collapse in our large cities of the health services' ability to cope.
3. So to put the record straight, the comparison of the statistics tells only a fraction of the story.
4. Even at the peak of the deluge of cases in Britain:
- people did not have to find their own oxygen
- social media was not plastered with desperate pleas for help to find a bed, plasma or remdesivir
-People did not die in cars and hospital car parks waiting for a bed.
- Ministers continued to give daily press briefings and take questions from Journalists
- Parliament continued to sit and the leader of the Oppositiion, @Keir_Starmer would challenge the PM @BorisJohnson with facts and figures.
- The media, @BBC and @SkyNews reported the crisisi
So while @DrSJaishankar was not wrong to compare India's second wave to what other, far richer, countries experienced a while ago, he must be called out for the lack of preparation, and the lack of precautions to avoid a second wave.
Of all countries, India was the least prepared to cope with a surge of cases and that alone was reason enough to have clamped down on the large gatherings of #IPL cricket, #Holi, #Baisakhi, #Kumbhmela, #ElectionRallies the lot.

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More from @GorwayGlobal

8 May
Imagine India was not a democracy. There was an Emperor in New Delhi who addressed his people once a month, strutted around the world before Covid, gave pep-talk littered with religious references at times of crisis, parleyed with kings and other world leaders; Imagine further..
That the Emperor appointed a Council of Ministers to implement his ideas and that the deal was that they credited him, the Emperor with successes, and took the blame for failures. Imagine also that the Emperor had hired an army of courtiers whose job it was to sing his praises
Imagine that these courtiers did not have to attend the durbar but instead would sit in airconditioned studios from where their Songs of Praise would be carried into peoples' homes. Imagine also that there as a peoples assembly at which the Emperor deigned periodically to attend
Read 7 tweets
8 May
The daily new cases count is still above 4 lakhs, at 401,343 yesterday 7 May. Image
Meanwhile, the vaccination drive sputters on fitfully. It seems to bear an inverse relationship to the spread of the virus. Image
The Ministry of Health, @mohfw, seems more concerned with defending the Govt agaibnst criticism. Every day it boasts about how many doses of vaccine it has given to the states "free of cost" See this from today's Press Release. Image
Read 4 tweets
8 May
Genome sequencing and Variants of Concern in India.
it appears to me that INSACOG - the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium - has a poor understanding of Data. In their report attached here:
dbtindia.gov.in/sites/default/… there is a table that I find very puzzling.
But look at this table - it is on page 4 and is dated 5 May 2021. Focus for a moment on the total. It seems to be purely numerator data. I dont get a sense of how many samples in total were looked at. Image
Summarising just the country-wide picture I conclude that. 05 the 3900 samples in which genome sequencing showed a Variant of Concern (VoC) or a variant of Interest (VoI) the breakdown is as follows:
B1.617 - 1,850 ("Indian variant")
B1.117 -1,922 ("UK variant")
B.1.351 - 1,27
Read 10 tweets
5 May
A thread
India #EAM S Jaishankar's remarks at a webinar 5 May 2021.
As part of his G7 visit, @DrSJaishankar took questions on India's covid epidemic what the Govt was doing about it and other matters. @Manjoladwa was the interviewer. catch it here:
This is just my take on what he said, part opinion, part riposte, part follow on Questions.
General impression: he was typical politician, partly evasive, defensive, deflecting the tough Qs and careful to defend his Govt's record and his boss the PM.
Mr Ladwa was frank and forthright in his lead-in Questions, but far from probing and challenging when his Q was clearly being evaded. It was not, nor was it meant to be, an @maitlis style @BBCNewsnight grilling.
Read 16 tweets
29 Apr
Listen up, #India, #Indians, @MoHFW, @Drharshvardhan, @NITIAayog, #journalists, #TVAnchors, #Pundits,
if ther's one TV interview worth watching it is this one by @fayedsouza and @PSampathkumarMD.
Priya is quiet, calm rational, scientific, unequivocal
her message in bullet points, (I've been arguing these same points on twitter):
1. Hospital admission should only be for those needing Intensive care or assisted ventilation of some kind.
2. Use clinical and common sense to judge severity, oxymeters are not vital.
3. A CT Chest is an irrelevance in most cases. Diagnostically it offers little and it DOES NOT determine treatment or prognosis.
4. Plasma and remdesivir DO NOT SAVE Lives. Dexamethasone does.
5. Chasing after them may actually be causing harm.
Read 6 tweets
21 Apr
A twitter thread
Subject: #India's #Covid vaccination strategy
The details of the latest policy changes are in this press release: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… from @MoHFW_INDIA
Let's ignore for a minute the repeated hagiographic references to #PMModi (see pic).
Presumably, this new policy was thrashed out at NEGVAC. If you have not heard about NEGVAC, then you have not been paying attention to my tweets. NEGVAC is National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 and we first heard about it was here: pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
Ignore the fact that this is as opaque and shadowy a body as it gets considering that it will be taking decisions that will affect every Indian citizen. Focus on the new vaccine policy. It is "a Liberalised and Accelerated Phase 3 Strategy of Covid-19 Vaccination from 1st May"
Read 19 tweets

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