Thread by @MathBomb

You know what we haven't looked at in a while? Some outliers.

For #RAS, this normally refers to players who found success in the NFL despite not testing off the charts.

I think it's important to keep some of that in context, that it's not a death knell when a guy isn't superman

Let's kick this off with what is still my favorite low #RAS card, Jarvis Landry!

Landry's combine performance in 2014 was one of the worst in this history of the NFL, in no small part due to pulling his hamstring.

I mean, just look at it!

Landry would test better at his pro day (shown here with his Combine bench since he didn't redo that), but like...still not good. But better!

Another all time terrible Combine performance that's a bit more recent was from Orlando Brown, formerly of Ravens now with Chiefs. This performance is a big reason Brown fell to where he did, and might have fallen even further if not for his familial connection to the Ravens.

Brown himself would do an excellent job of highlighting why he's still successful in the NFL. Frankly, it should be required reading for anyone trying to evaluate NFL talent, to help identify outliers in the data by better understanding film.

baltimoreravens.com/news/orlando-b…

Larry Warford was described as out of shape at the 2013 Combine, resulting in an all time oof description that "his body just looks sloppy". He had some injury issues with Detroit, who drafted him, but would go on to have a few pro bowl seasons with the Saints.

Warford would change his diet and work out with former pro bowl guard LeCharles Bentley before his first training camp, showing up to the Lions in "incredible shape", which seems a lot better than sloppy. He would go on to start and play well whenever he was on the field.

Another former Lions player, Quandre Diggs came out as a corner and would start at nickel for the Lions. He was very good out the gate, but had a really rough follow up where he allowed more than 90% of his targets to be completed.

Later, after injuries to their starters, Lions would move Diggs to Safety, a role he would go on to thrive in. He picked up 3 picks in each 2017 and 2018 before the Lions traded him to Seattle, where he made a pro bowl in 2020.

Devonta Freeman was one of the more exciting running backs in 2015-2017 before injuries really started to pile on. It might be surprising to some that he tested quite poorly, including in areas he seemingly had no issue on the field.

Mark Ingram remains the only RB taken in the 1st round since 1987 with a #RAS lower than 5.00. While it wasn't until his 6th season that he broke 1,000 yards, he finished his Saints career with over 6k yards and 50 touchdowns on the ground.

It's fun to look back at players like Travis Frederick and see how the narrative shifted. Largely considered a reach at the time, Frederick wasn't a great tester to put it mildly.

He would go on to be one of the best interior offensive lineman in the NFL until his retirement.

You know, I skipped right over Vontaze Burfict since I was primarily looking at drafted guys.

Burfict famously had the worst Combine ever, bombing out at testing, interviews, pretty much everything.

Hard to put a finger on which part of the Combine he did the worst at.

While his reputation as one of the league's dirtiest players stuck, he had a productive career when healthy and not suspended...

Considering his level of play, I think it surprises some people to learn that Kam Chancellor didn't test well in any area other than size and bench. He would go on to be one of the most feared hitters in the NFL over his career.

Another favorite, Anquan Boldin wasn't a particularly good tester, but he also didn't win because he was fast or even particularly explosive.

All you had to do to beat him? Fight him for the ball.

Boldin put up 1,377 yards on 101 receptions his rookie year and never looked back

Considering how versatile of a receiver he was, it can be surprising that Randall Cobb didn't test well in any area other than nearly dead average speed.

Trent Brown, along with Orlando Brown no relation, is one of the only pro bowl offensive tackles in the last 20 years to have a #RAS below 5.00.

Za'Darius Smith is one of the players (along with DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead, others) that led me to build a subset for DL. It's not up on the site yet, but it's easy to be fooled by 'poor' testing at DE for the larger guys who win inside.

Injury is part of why Jordan Reed's score is so low and that would largely be the story of his NFL career.

He remains the only TE with a sub 5.00 #RAS to find significant NFL success in the last two decades.

Calais Campbell, like Za'Darius Smith, falls into a different type of end so his 'poor' testing requires more context.

Remember when Antonio Brown was just a decent punt returner prospect? His testing played a part in why that was the thinking at the time, and why he was drafted where he was.

There are few examples of edge rushers with poor #RAS finding success, but one of our recent ones comes in UDFA Shaq Barrett, who found his fit as well as his rhythm in Tampa.

Tamba Hali also falls into that sub group of DL I'm working on, but compared to regular DE it wasn't a good look.

Xavien Howard didn't test well at all at the 2016 NFL Combine, but I believe that was due to an injury at the time.

Shown here (compared up to 2021 instead of 2016), using his Combine bench and shuttle since he didn't retest, it's pretty clear that Howard's Combine was not as representative of his athletic ability.

Can't leave off Dalvin Cook, whose testing was as mind boggling at the time as it is today.

Ah, Josh Norman. This dude paved the way to people thinking that any slow corner could be good if given the chance.

As it turns out, speed is pretty important, which is why a guy from 2012 is still used as an example and there aren't plenty of others.

Sometimes poor testing is as simple as "He was literally injured on tape during his testing".

There are plenty of others, but those are the most notable.

Never forget that bad testing doesn't mean a player is destined for the scrap heap.

The chances are lower that they'll be drafted highly.

Lower that they'll find success.

Lower than they'll get the opportunities to start.

But not zero, and never lose sight that in this regard we're speaking solely from testing, taking into account nothing else.