I hope I’m wrong about the variant, but there are warning signs from multiple countries that the Indian variant is more transmissible than the UK variant.
This means that the measures that previously worked to keep people safe may not be enough now.
It does not mean that the situation is hopeless (it isn’t), or that getting infected is inevitable (it’s not).
The variant can’t break the laws of physics, so masks and ventilation still work. But you may have to step them up (i.e., use better masks, and increase ventilation).
All of the major vaccines are likely to remain effective against the variant (or at least not be substantially reduced in efficacy), so there is no need for concern in that respect.
If you have the opportunity to be vaccinated - with any vaccine - please take it.
Consider also purchasing some safety goggles (Ideally the ventless type).
We don’t have good evidence for this kind of protection, but infection via the eye might become more likely if community transmission reached high levels.
Here’s a very good news story. New studies show the Pfizer-BNT vaccine works incredibly well, including against the South African variant (the most immune-evading variant known).
But the second dose is critical.
The Novavax vaccine also holds up well against the SA variant. 🧵
Real-world data from Qatar show the Pfizer-BNT vaccine is effective against the UK and South African variants, but only after the second dose.
For example the vaccine was only 39% effective against severe disease after one dose, but this rose to 97% (92-99%) after two doses.
Here’s the effectiveness by first, then second dose:
Infection:
🇬🇧 29%, 89%
🇿🇦 17%, 75%
Severe disease:
🇬🇧 54%, 100% (82-100%)
🇿🇦 0%, 100% (74-100%)
Any variant: 39%, 97% (92-99%) nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Children get #COVID19 and transmit the virus much more than thought. My recent paper on the subject (which has now been typeset) explains why many studies got this wrong, and how we can design better research.
A security guard at the Pan Pacific hotel in #Perth has tested positive, along with two housemates. Short thread with the details.
If you’ve visited any of these sites, you must get tested & quarantine until you receive a negative result.
Masks are mandatory when leaving home.
A hotel quarantine security guard who received their first dose of the Pfizer-BNT vaccine about 1 week ago, worked at the Pan Pacific hotel on the 24th, 25th, and 26th of April.
On the 24th, two international arrivals who would later test positive arrived at the hotel.
The arrivals were from Indonesia and the US. One was infected with a variant common in the US.
The security guard, who developed symptoms on the 29th, is believed to have become infectious on the 27th. He tested positive yesterday, on the 30th of April.
A possible limitation is that mostly young children were studied.
Over half were aged <6 years, and 8 of the 12 children (67%) with long COVID were aged <3 years. As such, it may not be representative of all children.
Other studies have reported a longer duration of symptoms.
However, the proportion of children with long COVID in this study (8%) is consistent with data reported by the Office for National Statistics in the UK.
In the ONS data, 7-8% of children and adolescents reported symptoms lasting at least 12 weeks.
This article contains a number of inaccuracies, @liammannix. The results of the REACT-1 study in England (and many others) are indisputable: children are frequently infected with SARS-CoV-2.
Anyone who says otherwise at this point is either ignorant, or has an agenda.
Study of 25,661 UK healthcare workers (including 8,278 with past COVID-19), showing past infection offers 84% protection against reinfection (93% for symptomatic disease) over 1-7 months. The emergence of the UK variant didn’t make reinfection more likely. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
During the study, participants had a PCR test every 2 weeks, and an antibody test every 4 weeks, so we can be reasonably sure the majority of cases would have been detected.
There were 1,704 infections in people who hadn’t previously had COVID-19 (of which 17% were asymptomatic), and 2 probable and 153 possible reinfections (1.9%), of which 49% were asymptomatic.