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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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11 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
“My Government will ensure that public finances will return to a sustainable path once recovery secured…” Queens speech…
Government will “modernise the planning system so that more homes can be built"
“my ministers will deepen trade ties in the Gulf, Africa and the Indo-Pacific”….

And what about the US trade deal?
#QueensSpeech
“Continue to provide aid” but no commitment to return to 0.7% target…

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
12 May
UK GDP in Q1 fell 1.5%, after the second lockdown... driven by hits to household consumption and investment, but rebound had already begun by end of that quarter in March as restrictions lifted - growth of 2.1%. Image
Trade figures out this morning give a full quarters post Brexit transition picture...

UK exports to the EU down 18.1%
Imports from EU down 21.7% versus Q4 2020

Non EU exports up 0.4%, imports down 0.9% in same time period ... Image
Various ways to compare trade figures - basic point - full quarter gives fuller picture than monthly figures...using 2019 as more normal figure than 2020

Eg. Q1 2021 goods exports to EU £32bn down 29% from £45bn in Q1 2019.

Same quarter non EU £41bn, down 7% from £44.5bn in 19
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 May
One pattern to look for over weekend is impact of massive economic state interventions (in emergency)on politics.

No bigger policy impact than interventions that keep you paid & in a job, & then jabbed & able to regain freedom.

In theory would boost all incumbent Governments
…call is looking good as we stand - incumbents across Britain benefit from intervening to affect people’s lives during this crisis, like never before.

truly staggering to really consider how many Britons have been directly impacted by actions of Governments over past 12 months
incumbent party in England wins councils/councillors, 11 years into Westmin Govt

incumbent party in Scotland gains constituencies, 10 years into Holyrood Govt

incumbent party in Wales gets working majority matching best result, after 22 years in charge in Cardiff

Vaccine Vote.
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 May
As we await the Bank of England’s new forecast and policy decisions - furlough statistics released this morning show use of the job retention scheme still high, but down just ahead of lifting of lockdown at end March - 4.2 million. Cumulative £61.3bn spent supporting wages. Image
Bank of England: “GDP is expected to rise sharply in 2021 Q2” and recover to pre Covid levels over the remainder of this year “absent restrictions”...
Outlook remains uncertain.
Policy unchanged
Lost pandemic output now forecast to be made up within 2021, says Bank of england: Image
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
5 May
Extraordinary development that the US is now backing a pandemic waiver on vaccine patents - the WTO boss warned in an interview with me of “unacceptable iniquities” in spread of vaccines...
Biden’s trade Rep Tai has been seeing vacc makers - presumption was that the threat of a patent waiver was mainly a form of leverage... Tai raised issue in a bilateral with UK Trade Sec Truss last month highlighting “need to support production equitable distribution of vaccines”
In March my colleague @deb_cohen obtained the draft of discussions at WTO showing US, UK and Swiss pushing back against the efforts of India and South Africa - we discussed extensively on Newsnight - see this thread:
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
29 Apr
NEW: Fishing groups decry failure to strike 2021 deal with Norway as a “disgrace” & “disaster”. UK Fisheries group say Government was “unable even to maintain the rights we have had to fish in Norwegian waters for decades”.

Say Norway will continue to export cod here tariff free
Defra confirms:

“We put forward a fair offer on access to UK waters and the exchange of fishing quotas, but we have concluded that our positions remain too far apart to reach an agreement this year.”
Operator of the UK’s biggest fishing vessel, currently in dock in Hull, suggests it may have done its last catch, and that all cod will have to be imported now, after failure to secure deals (apart from Svalbard) in waters fished routinely last year

Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
28 Apr
NEW:

Defra Committee cross party MPs release bruising report on “considerable trade friction” & “substantial” new red tape leading to “substantive & enduring” post Brexit costs for food exporters.

- Flatly contradicts in line 1, PM’s assertion of “no non tariff barriers”.
* Report calls for Govt to re-enter discussions with EU to lower new burdens on exporters through veterinary partnership. Says it wasnt achieved by Lord Frost’s negotiation “in part because Govt did not place sufficient priority on it resulting in creation of non-tariff barriers”
* the consequence so far of the non tariff barriers for food exporters, the MPs report says is not just “teething problems” but “imposing enduring costs” which may result in big business “shifting processing to the EU” and smaller businesses finding such exports “unviable”.
Read 9 tweets

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