Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW 36 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest thread where I discuss all the pertinent questions relevant to the upcoming GW:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Fantasy5: Fantasy5’s latest round is now live! Watkins, Richarlison and Antonio all come in with a target to beat of just 6.5 points. Kane’s 9.5 while Bale is 8.5 so the jackpot seems within reach. Prizes as big as £10k! Sign up here:

fantasy5.com

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Drafthound: If you’re a die-hard FPL manager like myself, you should use this free to use and user-friendly website which provides quality analysis and odds to help you with your FPL decision making:

cutt.ly/drafthound

@drafthound

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Q: Who is the best Manchester city midfielder to buy?
Man City midfielders:

(Last four PL starts)

Foden v Mahrez v De Bruyne v Gündoğan

Total shots: 11 v 13 v 13 v 7
Big chances: 1 v 2 v 2 v 1
Chances created: 10 v 5 v 13 v 8
Big chances created: 1 v 0 v 2 v 0

Points to note here:

* De Bruyne and Mahrez the biggest goal threats, but Mahrez now on penalties
* De Bruyne with the highest chance of being involved either through goal or assist
* Foden offers a little bit of both so will offer outstanding value

Man City midfielders:

(More recent stats: Last four UCL starts)

Foden v Mahrez v De Bruyne v Gündoğan

Total shots: 12 v 8 v 13 v 3
Big chances: 3 v 2 v 2 v 0
Chances created: 6 v 11 v 4 v 5
Big chances created: 1 v 2 v 1 v 0

Points to note here:

*Foden and Mahrez with the highest number of big chance involvements
*De Bruyne in a false nine role not as involved creatively
*Similar trends witnessed with Gündoğan, no big chance involvements at all

Newcastle are conceding an abnormal number of big chances down their right flank recently which should bode well for Foden. Newcastle this calendar year and over the past six GWs are top for chances conceded down the right flank in the entire league. To put...

... it into context, Newcastle have conceded 34% more chances down their right as compared to their left this season (147 v 109). Foden should get plenty of joy. Newcastle are also the worst for xGc conceded over the past six matches so this should be a game where the City...

... attackers have some fun. I’d definitely double up on Mahrez and Foden on a Free Hit. Without the Free Hit, I think Mahrez is likely to be the better pick if you can afford both. I expect both to start two of their remaining three fixtures, but Foden is more susceptible...

... to a bench cameo. Mahrez hasn’t come off the bench even once during his past four PL benchings.

Q: Is it worth keeping Greenwood, Fernandes and Shaw?

Greenwood and Shaw are fairly straight-forward holds in my opinion. Greenwood is by far, the best pick in his price range while Shaw possesses the upside of a clean sheet coupled with either attacking returns or bonus...

.. points so I wouldn’t be getting rid of either ahead of a home game vs Fulham where both are likely to start. There is definitely more merit to selling Bruno Fernandes. With the likes of Son, Bale, Mahrez, Foden in the market and chances of reduced minutes for Bruno in GW38...

... ahead of a Europa League final, there are opportunities to be availed by selling him. However, I’m not too averse to the idea of holding him till GW37 either. He could be somewhat a differential captaincy shout in GW37 against an already relegated Fulham team...

... Then you can easily sell him for a Man City midfielder in GW38 depending on whoever gets benched in GW37.

Q: In this section, I cover Salah, Mané and Jota.

Liverpool are top for xG in the past four matches and given that they have an extremely favorable run of fixtures (wba bur CPL), they have to be a major part of our conversation this week. Mané’s going under the radar but...

... he’s top for big chance involvements among all players in the league over the past six matches – second to him is Salah. I now come to Diogo Jota:

Diogo Jota GW1-31:

Big chances: 7
Goals: 8

Diogo Jota GW32-35:
Big chances: 3
Goals: 0

You can call it regression to the mean, but this has been points dodging of the highest order from the Portuguese. I expect him to be rested against Man United, which is why he’d be a shoe-in for me on a Free Hit. The value he offers allows for significant upgrades elsewhere.

Q: In this section, I cover Kane, Bale and Son.

Spurs have been very good at putting the bottom half teams to the sword at home this term. I expect that trend to continue in home games against WOL and AVL. Bale has been a proper flat track bully this season. Each one of...

... his nine goals have come at home and against the bottom half teams. This is particularly promising for him ahead of two home fixtures against WOL and AVL - exactly the kind of matches that Bale fancies. I run a comparison to compare Kane, Bale and Son in the matches...

... that Bale has started against the bottom ten at home together with Kane, Bale and Son this season because this is the trend I expect to continue in the next two homes games for Spurs:

(read below)

Kane v Son v Bale

Shots in the box: 9 v 2 v 10
Big chances: 3 v 1 v 5
Chances created: 7 v 14 v 5
Big chances created: 2 v 5 v 1

Points to note:

*Son takes up more of a creative role in such matches
*Kane is most likely to be involved either through a goal or assist also having the best xGi over the past six matches in the league
*Bale hogs the majority of the chances of the highest quality

Q: In this section, I discuss Brighton with and without Dunk, Coufal, Lingard and Antonio.

Brighton's defensive numbers without Dunk this season v with Dunk

Big chances conceded per game: 1 v 1.34
Average xG conceded per game: 0.85 v 0.93

Those numbers tell me that Brighton are more of a system-based team and not too dependent on specific individuals. I still think that Brighton will be a hard game for West Ham – no team has conceded fewer big chances or has a better xG conceded at home than Brighton this season.

Lingard since joining West Ham (GW22-31) v Lingard GW32-35

Mins per shot in box: 44.27 v 119
Mins per big chance: 159.4 v 357
Mins per xGi: 189.3 v 270.5
Mins per penalty area touch: 22.8 v 44.6

Lingard’s numbers are on the decline as shown above. Over the last four matches, he has had just the two shots in the box from open play with no big chances from open play to his credit. Penalty area touches have dropped too, which is concerning for owners... I mentioned...

... in last week's thread that no player recorded better xG, xGi, big chances and penalty area touches than Antonio in GW34. He continues to be a top option ahead of a fixture run that reads bha, wba, SOT. Brighton might be slightly tough, but you've got to question...

... West Brom's motivation and morale with relegation being confirmed while Southampton have conceded the highest number of big chances in the past six matches. Fitness concerns have always been a worry with Antonio but when fit he's been FPL gold. No forward has a better...

... xGi per 90 than Antonio which highlights the exemplary numbers he posts whenever he plays. I believe he is a significantly better option than Lingard. I’d also like to talk about Coufal here. He’s top among defenders for big chances created over the past four matches and...

... was unlucky to be denied by the post v Everton. He continues to post good numbers irrespective of the formation West Ham play. However, West Ham’s defensive stats have been questionable as they are among the bottom three for xG conceded in the past six matches...

... Their numbers have been on the decline:

West Ham defensive numbers GW1-25 v GW26-35

Big chances conceded per game: 1.64 v 2.1
Average xG conceded per game: 1.17 v 1.64

Q: In this section, I discuss Leeds’ resurgence and their assets for the run-in.

Leeds defensive numbers GW1-16 v GW17-35

Big chances conceded per game: 2.81 v 1.73
Average xG conceded per game: 1.72 v 1.43

In my numbers above, I highlight the defensive improvements Leeds have made this calendar year. I still believe they are questionable defensively away from home which is why I wouldn’t want to be relying purely on clean sheets from their defenders. This is why Dallas is such...

... a strong option, given that he has scored more goals than any other defender this season. Leeds’ attacking numbers have been poor in recent weeks but this GW was the first time where they have been top ranked for chances created per game in quite a while. Bamford is...

... playing for an England place so has added incentive to do well. Raphinha’s return from injury will also help as both now face an appealing run of fixtures (bur sou WBA).

Q: In this section, I highlight the decline in Sheffield United’s defensive numbers.

Sheffield United under Wilder v post Wilder

(league position for relevant stat given)

Big chances conceded per game: 2.41 (19th) v 3.38 (20th)
xG conceded per game: 1.53 (18th) v 2.41 (20th)

Sheffield United's defensive numbers continue to collapse ever since Wilder has left and their relegation to the Championship has been sealed. Since Wilder has left, Sheffield United have conceded 27 big chances - to put things into context, only three teams have conceded...

... more than 20 big chances during this spell. Bale, Benteke, Iheanacho, Vardy and Lacazette have already hauled in recent weeks and all signs point to the fact that going Sheffield United chasing will continue to be profitable for FPL managers. Two players who would be...

... absolutely locked into my team on a Free Hit would be Calvert Lewin and Digne. Calvert Lewin, in particular, looks like a solid option for those without the Free Hit as well given that he plays WOL at home next week too. No player has registered more big chances than him...

... in the last six matches. Digne with the number of chances he creates stands a huge chance of accumulating bonus points whenever Everton are to keep a clean sheet – which makes him all the more explosive.

Q: In this section, I talk about Chris Wood.

I now move on to Chris Wood who also faces Sheffield United on the last day of the season. Wood is level with Calvert Lewin for most big chances over the past six matches, being second top for xG and xGi among all players in...

... the league during the same spell. Burnley in recent times have been very attacking and are among the top three teams for xG and big chances over the past four matches. Despite Leeds’ defensive resurgence, it must be kept in mind that most of their strong defensive...

... performances have come at home and away from home they still are fairly mediocre defensively. Over the past six away matches, Leeds are among the bottom five teams for xG conceded so there’s every chance of another Chris Wood goal this week.

Q: In this section, I highlight the improvement in Newcastle’s attacking numbers.

Newcastle attacking numbers last six matches vs their season averages

Big chances per game: 3.16 v 1.10
Average xG per game: 1.92 v 0.95

As seen above, Newcastle’s numbers are on the rise. Given the fact that like Burnley they are safe, they are playing far more freely over recent weeks. Saint Maximin is a good option worth keeping an eye on – he stands top for chances created and shots among all Newcastle...

... players over the past six matches. Newcastle are to face two relegated teams, Sheffield United and Fulham in the last two fixtures and if Fulham’s defensive numbers are to follow a similar trend to Sheffield United’s, Saint Maximin could be a great differential with...

... upside for those FPL managers chasing rank.

Q: Iheanacho and Vardy – keep or sell?

Iheanacho v Vardy last four matches

Shots inside the box: 8 v 9
Big chances: 2 v 3
Goals: 2 v 0

Long story short, Iheanacho has been clinical while Vardy has been wasteful in recent weeks. Leicester have a blank and then tough fixtures to follow (che TOT) hence it may be an ideal time to sell Leicester’s assets. Given the variety of options available at our disposal, I...

... think it makes sense for Vardy’s owners to cut their losses in particular. Iheanacho I can see scoring against Spurs in GW38 but the upside move is to get someone with three better fixtures to have three bites at the cherry.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! I’ve already spoken about Antonio and how impressive his attacking numbers have been this season. I believe a West Brom attacker is a cheeky shout as well given that Liverpool have conceded the highest amount of big chances in the past four matches.

Also, in case you didn't know, I do a weekly podcast (#TheFPLWire) with @lateriser12 and @zophar666 where we cover everything FPL relevant for the GW. We've started doing it live on Tuesday afternoons/evenings.

Here's this week’s episode -> 👇

Kindly like and retweet the thread if you can! Do share your feedback as always, and follow me on my Instagram if you don’t already as I post about FPL there too through the link down below:

instagram.com/bigmanbakar