Share this page!

Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
Twitter logo
12 May, 2 tweets, 1 min read
ICYMI: the disincentive explanation for the April drop-off in payroll gains fails to fit the sectoral data. If a $300 weekly supplement was having that effect, we should see it more visibly in low-wage sectors, but we don't. Mid- & high-wage sectors account for bulk of slowdown
For those interested in reading more... I've got you covered: nytimes.com/2021/05/12/opi…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout )

Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @IrvingSwisher

Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
4 Mar
This was fun to write w/ @tragicbios (and w/ much-appreciated help from @hassankhan). More to come...

"Supplying Demand: The Chip Shortage in Macro Context"

tl;dr Supply & demand are highly intertwined; econ policy should not the treat two as independent
employamerica.medium.com/supplying-dema…
The semiconductor chip shortage has made headlines and been a rare source of bipartisan concern. But the shortage reflects something intellectually impt: supply and demand are deeply cointegrated. This often gets lost in the intro econ textbook portrayal (both micro & macro)
Current shortage is not because of a supply disruption, but because supply is now having to play catch-up to surprising demand. After 20yrs of underwhelming business demand for tech equipment along with other trends, not a surprise that existing capacity was not well-prepared.
Read 19 tweets
Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
2 Dec 20
Mnuchin & Toomey are trying to perpetuate an absurd interpretation of the CARES Act solely on the basis of "trust me, I helped negotiate this bill", never mind the pesky statutory text. There are two sides to every negotiation...
Good to see Senate & House members push back
Both Mnuchin & Toomey knew that the Treasury Secretary continues to retain authority to modify, restructure or otherwise amend its equity investments in Fed lending facilities/programs even after Jan 1, 2021. That's why bills were put forth after CARES to curb that authority....
@SenatorMenendez was the first to call out this ridiculous attempt to rewrite the law. Section 4027(c)(2) clearly says "ON January 1, 2026" not "By January 1, 2026" or "No later than January 1, 2026"
c-span.org/video/?c492674…
Read 11 tweets
Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
24 Nov 20
*MNUCHIN TO PLACE $455 BLN UNSPENT CARES MONEY IN GENERAL FUND ... *TREASURY NEEDS CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL TO USE GENERAL-FUND MONEY

Transferring to the general fund before Jan 1, 2026 would be in violation of the CARES Act
4027(a) is very clear that Congress' $500B appropriation to the ESF was to "carry out this subtitle."

4027(c)(2) is the only place in the subtitle that permits a transfer to the general fund, and it specifies that this is only "On January 1, 2026" (not "by" or "no later than")
Section 4027 of the CARES Act is quite clear about the timeline and set of purposes for which the ESF appropriation may be used:
Read 4 tweets
Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
27 Aug 20
Now for what I see as the most disappointing aspect to the Fed's framework review...the doubling down on inflation targeting.

I think the Fed rightly sees its primary error as one of insufficient accommodation, but the reasoning and remedy are both flawed
medium.com/@skanda_97974/…
The thrust of this framework review has primarily centered around inflation. The Fed believes that inflation outcomes will self-perpetuate through the ever-unfalsifiable belief in the role of inflation expectations. By committing to more inflation, expectations will shift too...
I fear that as the Fed tries to educate the public about what it means for inflation to "average 2%," there is only going to be more attention paid to a fickle noisy messy macro variable that does not serve as a reliable guide to real-time macroeconomic analysis.
Read 20 tweets
Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
29 Jul 20
We didn't learn a whole lot about the Fed's forward guidance strategy aside from the fact that it will be related to the conclusion of the Fed's framework review. If the Fed needs some suggestions for how to proceed with state-contingent forward guidance
medium.com/@skanda_97974/…
For those wondering, yes, these suggestions overlap with @employamerica's proposed #FloorGLI framework in that the goal is to achieve a baseline rate of employment and wage growth: medium.com/@skanda_97974/…
The Evans Rule had a number of flaws from which Sudiksha Joshi and I hope the Fed learns the right lessons...

To start with, the Fed really should look beyond consumer price inflation if they want to escape the asymmetric costs posed by the zero lower bound...
Read 35 tweets
Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout ) Profile picture
29 Jul 20
If you've finished your lunch and have an hour to spare before today's FOMC meeting, some suggestions for how the Fed should approach its forward guidance strategy:

medium.com/@skanda_97974/…
I think the starting point for how the Fed should proceed with forward guidance starts with the Evans Rule. My co-author Sudiksha Joshi and I tried to first put some context around what the Evans Rule actually meant for the economy from 2012-14: medium.com/@skanda_97974/…
The Fed is obviously not an all-powerful institution. Fiscal policy is the more direct mechanism for providing affirmative support; the Fed is more constrained. But it doesn't mean the Fed is powerless either. Forward guidance is how the Fed can commit to "doing no harm"
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @IrvingSwisher has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @IrvingSwisher!

Read all threads by @IrvingSwisher

:(