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TheValuesVoter

13 May, 21 tweets, 5 min read

You can learn a lot by reading exit polls. And in this time of #TheBigLie when Trump and those who believe him and lie for him invent all kinds of falsehoods about our voting infrastructure, exit polls provide an independent source of data, outside of the voting infrastructure.

People are asked "how DID you vote?" And when we look at the results of these polls, it gives us another angle to look at how we got from the results in 2016 to the results in 2020.

So since some weird people are still looking for bamboo in paper ballots in Arizona, let's compare the way people from different groups said they voted right after they voted in 2016 with how people said they voted right after their 2020 vote. In Arizona.

Here are the links so you can compare for yourself and also check me. I'm working on doing this for multiple states but I'm starting with AZ as it was close and because Trump claimed the state was "stolen."

cnn.com/election/2016/…
cnn.com/election/2020/…

In 2016, Trump won Men in Arizona 53-40 (+13).

In 2020, Trump won Men in Arizona 50-48 (+2).

An 11 point drop.

In 2016, Trump lost Women in Arizona 45-49 (-4).

In 2020, Trump lost Women in Arizona 48-51 (-3).

He gained 1 point.

In 2016, Trump won College Grads in Arizona 47-46 (+1).

In 2020, Trump lost College Grads in Arizona 46-53 (-7).

He lost 8 points.

In 2016, Trump won Non-College Grads (all races) in Arizona 50-43 (+7).

In 2020, Trump won College Grads (all races) in Arizona 51-47 (+4).

He lost 3 points.

In 2016, Trump won White College Grads in Arizona 50-44 (+6).

In 2020, Trump lost White College Grads in Arizona 46-53 (-7).

That's a loss of 13 points with this group.

In 2016, Trump won White Non-College Grads in Arizona 58-36 (+22).

In 2020, Trump won White Non-College Grads in Arizona 57-41 (+16).

He lost 6 points with them.

Trump did improve with Non-White voters in Arizona.

In 2016, Trump lost Non-White College Grads in AZ 35-57 (-22).

In 2020, Trump lost Non-White College Grads in AZ 41-58 (-17).

He gained 5 points.

In 2016, Trump lost Non-White Non-College Grads in AZ 30-61 (-31).

In 2020, Trump lost Non-White Non-College Grads in AZ 38-60 (-22).

He gained 9 points. This offset some of the losses he got with White College Grads and Non-College Grads.

However, Non-White College Grads were only an estimated 8% of the participating electorate in 2020. And Non-White Non-College Grads were only an estimated 18%. So it helped Trump some. But not enough to make up for his losses with white voters.

cnn.com/election/2020/…

In 2016, Trump lost Democrats in AZ 7-89 (-82).

In 2020, Trump lost Democrats in AZ 3-96 (-93).

An 11 point margin loss with this group.

In 2016, Trump won Republicans in AZ 88-7 (+81).

In 2020, Trump won Republicans in AZ 90-9 (+81).

No change in margin.

In 2016, Trump won Independents in Arizona 47-44 (+3).

In 2020, Trump lost Independents in Arizona 44-53 (-9).

A loss of 12 points among Independents in Arizona.

In 2016, Trump won White voters in Arizona 54-40 (+14).

In 2020, Trump won White voters in Arizona 52-46 (+6).

A loss of 8 points.

It's not deep. It doesn't require a magnifying glass and, my God, does not require looking for bamboo. This information was acquired completely without the use of voting machines of any kind. And the deceased Hugo Chavez doesn't conduct exit polling.

The certified election results show that Trump lost Arizona. The trendlines show that Arizona was sliding blue even before the 2020 election. And this separate but corroborating piece of data, exit polls, show WHY this happened. Again, it's not hard, difficult to grasp or deep.

Trump lost a lot of men, white folks, Dems and Independents who supported him in 2016 and, sometime between then and 2020, said "dude, I'm out!"

And if you look at the Pre-Election Polling for Arizona, which was very close to the actual end result (they only differed by six tenths of a point), it wasn't even a surprise.

Stop believing lies. Especially when the truth is so easy to find. #TheBigLie
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

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TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

13 May

There are a lot of Republican members of Congress who claim to be Bible-believing Christians.

And a lot of them urgently need to read what the Bible, God’s Word, says about people who lie.
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Revelation 22:15 reads:
"Outside are the dogs, those who practice magic arts, the sexually immoral, the murderers, the idolaters and everyone who loves and practices falsehood."

Outside of where? Outside of heaven. For eternity.

This is what God says will be the end state for all liars and deceivers (as is also stated in Revelation 21:8). This is how He says that He will judge us.

If you're going to claim to believe the Bible, you might as well know what it says. And this sounds like God is serious.

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Of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue in 2020 to win the Presidency, only one of them, Wisconsin, had a notable difference between the final result and the Real Clear Politics Average of pre-election polls for the state.

They turned out largely as expected.

In Arizona, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 0.9 points.

Biden won Arizona by 0.3 points.

Only a 0.6 point difference from what the polls, on average, predicted.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

Also, if you look at the graph of the RCP Average for Arizona polls, Trump did not lead in the state from March 7th, 2020 (right around the time COVID kicked in) until, briefly, just before the election on October 31st.

And the Dems picked up a Senate seat in the state also.

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No, Ashli Babbitt was not executed. And Paul Gosar is not connected to reality.

She was at the front of a violent mob that was literally breaking down the door to the room where members of the House were hiding in fear for their lives - from that same mob.

On January 6th, that mob injured at least 140 cops, chanted “HANG MIKE PENCE” (someone even built a noose outside the Capitol) and included some people who talked openly about wanting to shoot the House Speaker.

And at the moment Ashli Babbitt was shot, the three people next in line for the Presidency were in the US Capitol. Surrounded by a violent mob which had breached nearly every security perimeter of the building.

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11 May

Either you’re going to be a person who believes things that you’re told and cling to them despite the data because you want to believe it. Or you’re going to be a person who lives in reality and adjusts your thinking based on verifiable facts.

I choose the latter.

I agree more with the Republicans on many fiscal issues. I don’t like high taxation. I don’t believe in treating wealth or success as if those things merit punishment. I hate debt and I don’t like excessive spending.

I was always told that the economy did better under Republican Presidents. And I wanted to believe that because it aligns more closely with my beliefs on fiscal issues.

But the data contradicts this notion in at least certain key areas.

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10 May

There was once this skinny 23-year old musician who got booed off the stage by a crowd at a rock concert in Los Angeles. He only got through three songs.

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There were once these two guys who tried their luck at acting. They weren't considered any good - they were voted "least likely to succeed" in their acting school.

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If you look at the states that have exit polling available for the last three Presidential elections, you'll notice things about the GOP's performance with whites.

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This has only to do with the MARGINS by which GOP Presidential candidates have won or lost white voters in Presidential elections according to exit polls.

In these states, the GOP has done worse, margin-wise, among whites in 2020 than in 2016 and worse in 2016 than in 2012.

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