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TheValuesVoter

12 May, 11 tweets, 6 min read

Of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue in 2020 to win the Presidency, only one of them, Wisconsin, had a notable difference between the final result and the Real Clear Politics Average of pre-election polls for the state.

They turned out largely as expected.

In Arizona, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 0.9 points.

Biden won Arizona by 0.3 points.

Only a 0.6 point difference from what the polls, on average, predicted.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

Also, if you look at the graph of the RCP Average for Arizona polls, Trump did not lead in the state from March 7th, 2020 (right around the time COVID kicked in) until, briefly, just before the election on October 31st.

And the Dems picked up a Senate seat in the state also.

In Georgia, the RCP Average expected that Trump would win by 1 point.

Biden ended up winning Georgia by 0.3 points. A 1.3 point difference in polling versus actual.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

Trump had led Georgia (which had been trending toward Dems since after the 2012 election) until October 1st - right around the time HE was rushed to Walter Reed with COVID and right after his disastrous first debate performance.

From then it was a dogfight. Which Trump lost.

In Michigan, the RCP Average predicted a Biden win of 4.2 points.

Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points. The polls were off by only 1.4 points.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

And if you look at the RCP Average for Michigan, you can see that Biden was always ahead of Trump in the state. Sometimes considerably. Trump made a late rally. But it was nowhere close enough. And he barely won Michigan the first time. He lost.

In Pennsylvania, the RCP average predicted a Biden win by 1.2 points (48.7 to 47.5).

Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 points (50.0 to 48.8).

The polls were exactly right in Pennsylvania.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…

Also, if you look at the polls for Pennsylvania, Donald Trump never led in the state. He was consistently fairly well behind Joe Biden. He did make a late push if you look at the right side of the graph. But it wasn't enough. He lost.

Wisconsin is the only of the states that changed hands between 2016 and 2020 in which the pre-election polls differed significantly from the final result.

The RCP Average predicted Biden would win WI by 6.7 points. He won WI by only 0.7 points. A 6 point difference.

What does all this mean? It means that this is a separate data point, completely different from the certified election results, the audits and recounts, voting machines, yada yada yada. And it complements the official results. Trump lost. As he was expected to.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

13 May

You can learn a lot by reading exit polls. And in this time of #TheBigLie when Trump and those who believe him and lie for him invent all kinds of falsehoods about our voting infrastructure, exit polls provide an independent source of data, outside of the voting infrastructure.

People are asked "how DID you vote?" And when we look at the results of these polls, it gives us another angle to look at how we got from the results in 2016 to the results in 2020.

So since some weird people are still looking for bamboo in paper ballots in Arizona, let's compare the way people from different groups said they voted right after they voted in 2016 with how people said they voted right after their 2020 vote. In Arizona.

Read 21 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

13 May

There are a lot of Republican members of Congress who claim to be Bible-believing Christians.

And a lot of them urgently need to read what the Bible, God’s Word, says about people who lie.
#TheBigLie

Revelation 22:15 reads:
"Outside are the dogs, those who practice magic arts, the sexually immoral, the murderers, the idolaters and everyone who loves and practices falsehood."

Outside of where? Outside of heaven. For eternity.

This is what God says will be the end state for all liars and deceivers (as is also stated in Revelation 21:8). This is how He says that He will judge us.

If you're going to claim to believe the Bible, you might as well know what it says. And this sounds like God is serious.

Read 5 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

12 May

No, Ashli Babbitt was not executed. And Paul Gosar is not connected to reality.

She was at the front of a violent mob that was literally breaking down the door to the room where members of the House were hiding in fear for their lives - from that same mob.

On January 6th, that mob injured at least 140 cops, chanted “HANG MIKE PENCE” (someone even built a noose outside the Capitol) and included some people who talked openly about wanting to shoot the House Speaker.

And at the moment Ashli Babbitt was shot, the three people next in line for the Presidency were in the US Capitol. Surrounded by a violent mob which had breached nearly every security perimeter of the building.

Read 6 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

11 May

Either you’re going to be a person who believes things that you’re told and cling to them despite the data because you want to believe it. Or you’re going to be a person who lives in reality and adjusts your thinking based on verifiable facts.

I choose the latter.

I agree more with the Republicans on many fiscal issues. I don’t like high taxation. I don’t believe in treating wealth or success as if those things merit punishment. I hate debt and I don’t like excessive spending.

I was always told that the economy did better under Republican Presidents. And I wanted to believe that because it aligns more closely with my beliefs on fiscal issues.

But the data contradicts this notion in at least certain key areas.

Read 5 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

10 May

There was once this skinny 23-year old musician who got booed off the stage by a crowd at a rock concert in Los Angeles. He only got through three songs.

Less than 23 years later, he was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. His name was Prince.
#MondayMotivation

There were once these two guys who tried their luck at acting. They weren't considered any good - they were voted "least likely to succeed" in their acting school.

These guys later won two Academy Awards each. We know these "losers" as Dustin Hoffman and Gene Hackman.

And there was this young singer who was struggling to get her career started in post-Motown Detroit. Her band got dropped because their label didn't think she had star potential. A record exec told her she couldn't sing.

Since then, she won 8 Grammies. Her name is Anita Baker.

Read 6 tweets

TheValuesVoter

@TheValuesVoter

10 May

The biggest immediate danger the GOP faces is not seeing more people of color voting. Their biggest risk is white voters who have a problem with Trump and with the GOP's racism. Which is why you'll be seeing Tim Scott a lot ("Hi! My name is Tim! And the GOP is not racist!")

If you look at the states that have exit polling available for the last three Presidential elections, you'll notice things about the GOP's performance with whites.

NOTE: this has NOTHING to do with the NUMBER of white voters (sorry, Tucker Carlson - no new show idea tonight).

This has only to do with the MARGINS by which GOP Presidential candidates have won or lost white voters in Presidential elections according to exit polls.

In these states, the GOP has done worse, margin-wise, among whites in 2020 than in 2016 and worse in 2016 than in 2012.

Read 10 tweets

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