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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

10 May

$ARKK - Broken down; brace yourself ⚠️🚨🚩

After parabolic rise last year, this is the completion of a topping formation and the beginning of the Stage 4 decline (which is usually the most vicious).

My portfolio got hedged about 10 days ago and now, I'm marginally net short.

Trolls were making fun of me about a month ago for going from leveraged long to hedged.

Who is laughing now!?

Always pays to listen to the market; being stubborn is a recipe for disaster. When it comes to portfolio holdings, its okay to be wrong, not okay to stay wrong.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

9 May

**THREAD**

A new currency *must* be handed out to each person at the same VALUE i.e. the swop with fiat currency has to be done at the same exchange rate for everybody.

With crypto, the miners and early HODLERs have paid very little for their tokens + now they are marketing...

it as a new 'currency' and the new buyers are swopping their fiat currency and buying in at higher prices - paying much more than the early buyers.

This is NOT how a new currency is introduced - this is akin to a Ponzi scheme which requires new $ to keep it going, so early...

buyers can cash out - there is NO value creation.

At any point in time, the cumulative sum of all net cash put in by losers will equal the cumulative sum of all net cash taken out by winners (excluding mining costs).

This is a bubble, clock is ticking. Good luck.

Read 6 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

8 May

Reviewed price charts of all asset bubbles going back decades. Amazing how they all look so similar -

Parabolic rise/blow off, initial decline, base building for a few weeks, then final leg down.

All formed perfect bell curves + selling only stopped with oversold readings.

The *minimum* decline I could find was 50% retracement of the entire rally and most gave back 65-75% of their entire gains.

Past doesn't guarantee the future, but human nature hasn't changed - interesting times!

Here is a chart (few months old) which shows how all the previous asset bubbles ended - Bell Curves.

The current bubble went up a bit further early this year but seems to have popped. Was aware it was an incipient bubble, just didn't realise it'd pop before end of QE.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

6 May

Clarification -

The major indices are still in a bull-market (although ripe for a pullback).

The unwind is isolated to the hyper-growth stocks + SPACs which had appreciated significantly last year and become very over-extended.

Those names are now correcting prior excesses.

Late last year and in Jan/Feb, I kept saying that 400-500% gains in a year were NOT normal - normally stocks appreciate so much in 5 years (or more)!

So, ongoing sell-off is normal. So far ARK ETFs have given back ~35% of the entire gain, 50-62% retracement can't be ruled out.

Whenever an asset or market experiences gravity defying gains in a short period of time and that move ends with euphoria, 'this time is different' and price acceleration, the result is always the same - perfect bell curve and brutal decline/bust.

This is how bubbles form + pop.

Read 4 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

30 Apr

1) Portfolio update Apr-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CPNG $CRWD $CURI $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $IPOE $MELI $OPEN $OZON $PATH $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $RTP $SE $SHOP $SFTW $SKLZ $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $UPST

Portfolio is currently hedged

Short $ARKK

Contd...

2) Return since 1 Sept 2016 -

Portfolio +572.00%
$ACWI +69.66%
$SPX +92.60%

CAGR since 1 Sept 2016 -

Portfolio +50.37%
$ACWI +11.99%
$SPX +15.07%

Contd...

3) YTD return -

Portfolio +4.45%
$ACWI +8.6%
$SPX +11.32%

Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $SE 3) $SNOW 4) $SNAP 5) $AGC

Contd....

Read 16 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

1 Apr

1) Portfolio update Mar-end -

$ACTC $ADYEY $CCIV $CPNG $CRWD $CURI $DKNG $DOCU $GHVI $IPOE $MELI $OPEN $OZON $PINS $PLTR $RBLX $ROKU $RTP $SE $SFTW $SKLZ $SNOW $TWLO $UPST #NQ_F

Return since 1 Sep'16 -

My a/c +541.12%
$ACWI +61.93%
$SPX +83.01%

2) CAGR since inception (1 Sep '16) -

Portfolio +50.03%
$ACWI +11.10%
$SPX +14.11%

YTD return -

Portfolio +1.13%
$ACWI +4.88%
$SPX +5.77%

Cont...

3) Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $SE 3) $UPST 4) $CPNG 5) $OZON

Commentary -

Wow! What a month!

March turned out be a brutal month for growth stocks, consequently my portfolio suffered a large drawdown.

At the end of Feb, my YTD return was 16.94% and those gains...

Read 16 tweets

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