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Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

13 May

@tebixby

Here's a narrative on the bear case for $LMND. I'm sharing it with the permission of the anonymous analyst in my DMs. The main questions include: can LMND really achieve the 17% operating margin target by @tebixby, which would mean lower expense ratios than the giants? 🧵

Here is what this analyst wrote:
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So let's be clear and distinguish between expense ratio (that's admin, marketing stuff) and the loss ratio (that's the actual insurance loss)

and lets talk specifically about auto.

So in auto the expense ratio leader is Geico.

Progressive is trying to catch up.

Roughly speaking Geico's fixed expenses are about 10% of premiums and then there is about 6%-8% of customer acquisition/growth spend.

For a total of 16%-18% of premiums.

Read 17 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

12 May

@tferriss

This is a must-listen interview by the inimitable @tferriss with the co-founder of Ethereum (Vitalik) and Naval:

pca.st/episode/045a46…

@VitalikButerin

What’s great about it is @VitalikButerin goes all-out wonky and @naval does the annotations, so to speak.

They also discuss a topic that’s underdiscussed: life extension.

It’s frustrating that more billionaires don’t trade billions for more life extension research so maybe Vitalik and Naval can help pave the way.

Why not create a new country with no FDA where this research can happen unfettered?

Read 4 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

1 May

@FrancisSuarez

Great interview with tech startup CEO (and Miami Mayor) @FrancisSuarez 🧵:
nytimes.com/2021/04/29/opi…

I've never heard a politician who had me smiling and nodding the whole time. Some reasons why:

Suarez says he's talking to local universities as well as courting engineering schools (including Stanford) to open campuses in the state and increase STEM graduates🏆

He understands that taxes don't create wealth. Rather, it's free enterprise and human ingenuity that do. In short, technological progress. It was the industrial revolution--many waves of it--that painted this picture of exponential wealth:

Read 10 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

18 Mar

So interesting to have Mark Zuckerberg, Daniel Ek and Tobi Lutke on Clubhouse at the same time.

Would've been hard--impossible?--to do in a regular panel.

Zuck on FB:
- 1m active shops
- more than 250m people interacting with them per month
- Next few years will be explosive

Daniel Ek:

Not only does Apple get 30%, which is more than Spotify gets, but they also control our communication with our users even outside the app

Read 15 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

3 Mar

Lemonade $LMND LTV/CAC calculation. First, let's look at TTM LTV and gross profit per customer. Gross profit margin is running ~18-20%. I'm assuming ~70% of S&M spend for advertising:

Also interesting to look at in-force premium growth on a TTM basis, and how many dollars of IFP growth the company got out of every dollar of ad spend ($1.76 in latest quarter):

LTV/CAC calc: assume 20% gross profit margin (IPO video says eventually 35%!), $213 of premium per year, 7.7 year lifetime = $327 of lifetime GP which / $150 of CAC = 2.2x

Company says 2-3x so in the ballpark.

Read 5 tweets

Marcelo P. Lima

@MarceloPLima

6 Oct 20

I haven’t yet read the 449-page report yet, but this is why Zuck said a republican government might be better for Facebook. The conclusion that we must break up our crown jewels, which are consumer staples of the 21st century and create vast consumer surplus, is asinine.

I know a half dozen wrong-headed academics who make their living as moral panic entrepreneurs will be happy about this report.

Nobody else will. Certainly not their customers—the vast majority of us.

Nobody tell the FTC about click-and-collect, delivery...🤦🏻‍♂️

Read 6 tweets

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