For the past four decades, the view that lower taxes, less spending, and fewer regulations would generate stronger economic growth has exerted substantial influence on U.S. public policy. 1/
Over this period, the United States has underinvested in public goods such as infrastructure and innovation, and gains from growth have accrued disproportionately to the top of the income and wealth distribution 2/
Long-standing racial, ethnic, and gender disparities persist. In addition, while historic progress has been made in expanding health insurance, more remains to be done to provide adequate protection against economic risk. 3/
Indicators of deprivation, such as child poverty, are too high, and declines in overall life expectancy in some years prior to the pandemic, accompanied by increased disparities, are cause for concern. 4/
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reflected the old orthodoxy of lower taxes. A sharp reduction in corporate taxes during a time of high corporate profits was sold with overly rosy claims about the economic growth that would result. 5/
The law did not deliver on those promises. There has been no evident impact on investment or growth: gross domestic product grew 2.4 percent in the two years leading up to the law’s passage and 2.4 percent in the two years following its passage. 6/
Instead, the tax cuts contributed to inequality by delivering disproportionate gains to the already well off without the promised wage gains for the middle class. 7/
The economic theory underlying President Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan is different. 8/
These proposed policies reflect the empirical evidence that a strong economy depends on a solid foundation of public investment, and that investments in workers, families, and communities can pay off for decades to come. 9/
In contrast to the American Rescue Plan, these plans are not emergency legislation, they address long-standing challenges. 10/
In order to function and deliver strong and shared economic gains, markets need an engaged, effective public sector. 11/
From policies that spur innovation and facilitate labor supply to those that provide investments in children and protections against economic insecurity, the public sector has an important role to play in supporting the economy. 12/
These types of public programs enable market actors to go about the business of producing goods and services. 13/
But when policymakers direct the public sector not to do those things—not to invest in innovation, in supporting labor force participation, in children, or in protection from risk—everyone suffers from slower economic growth, greater inequality, and reduced economic security. 14/
In this issue brief, we lay out the economic evidence that demonstrates why robust public investment is an important element of a strong, inclusive U.S. economy. Read the full piece here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Inflation increased at a 4.2% rate year-over-year last month and 0.8% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 3.0% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month 1/
Part of this was due to base effects, reflecting the depressed prices from last spring. Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 14 months since February 2020, the rate of core CPI inflation was 2.2%. 2/
Some of April’s price increase also reflects pandemic-induced supply chain pressures that are expected to be transitory. The sharp increase in used motor vehicle prices accounted for more than a third of the increase in the month-over-month index. 3/
Usually when we see rising wages, the economy is growing. However, during the pandemic, composition and base effects make wage data harder to interpret 1/
In April 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings skyrocketed to about 8 percent—the highest observed since the series began in 2006. 2/
The sharp, one-month increase in reported average wages was because millions of relatively low-paid workers lost their jobs, while relatively high-paid workers remained employed. (composition effects) 3/
In the next several months we expect measured inflation to increase somewhat, primarily due to three different temporary factors: base effects, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up demand, especially for services. 1/
We expect these three factors will likely be transitory, and that their impact should fade over time as the economy recovers from the pandemic. After that, the longer-term trajectory of inflation is in large part a function of inflationary expectations. 2/
Overall inflation, as defined by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, fell during the pandemic, though there have been important differences between products and sectors 3/
Today’s jobs report showed marked acceleration in March to the fastest pace since August of last year. The economy added 916,000 jobs in March, and job growth was revised up in both January and February.
Although there were 8.4 million fewer jobs in March than in February 2020, assuming the current pace of job growth holds, employment could be back to pre-pandemic levels around the end of this year.
In March, women’s employment losses finally narrowed to about the same decline as men have experienced.
The jobs report shows an acceleration in job growth in February and an upward revision to January’s job growth. The economy is down 9.5 million jobs from February 2020 and will need more than two years of job growth at February’s pace just to get back to pre-pandemic levels. 1/
The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points above the rate in February 2020, before the pandemic sent many workers home and shuttered businesses and schools. More than 4 million workers have dropped out of the labor force. 2/
Accounting for labor force dropouts and misclassification issues related to BLS’s survey questions would result in an unemployment rate around 9.5 percent. 3/