Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/11 - France - May 15 to May 21 -
#COVID19 is green in Mayotte, Martinique, Charente-Maritime, Gers, and Corse-du-Sud; improving (orange) in 12 Régions; red (R-eff>0.9) in 17+2 Départements (=1+2 overseas Régions).
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/11 - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.81), from medium levels, decreasing from medium level of mortality, for 7 more days.

Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté are landing towards their safety zone (R-eff=0.83), from med. levels, high mortality.

3/11 - Corsica has landed in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.64), and will be remaining in it, with potential for increase in mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

4/11 - Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.68), from medium levels of activity, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/11 - Occitanie is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.75), from medium levels of activity, while plateauing at. medium levels of mortality, for 7 more d.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine is landing from medium levels of activity (0.81), while plateauing at med. level of mort.

6/11 - Pays-de-la-Loire is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), from medium levels, with decreasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Centre-Val-de-Loire is landing (0.85), from medium level, decreasing from high levels of mortality.

7/11 - Bretagne is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.93), from medium levels, plateauing at medium level of mortality, for 7 more days.

Normandie is landing towards its safety zone (0.86), from high levels, with decreasing from high levels of mortality.

8/11 - Hauts-de-France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), from high levels of activity, with decreasing from high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

9/11 - Grand-Est is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.78), from medium levels of activity, and decreasing from high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/11 - Ile-de-France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.83), from high levels of activity, and decreasing from high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/11 - Guyane (and La Réunion) are experiencing a rise (plateauing) at high levels in their #COVID19, R-eff=1.18 (1.0), with high mortality, for 7 more days.
Guadeloupe (0.83) landing from medium level, very high mortality.
Martinique (0.62) and Mayotte (0.65) landed.

12/11 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100...

13/11 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0