Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/22. May 15 to May 21 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in Eighty Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 192 countries/ territories.

Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
& ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/22- European champions -
Norway (and Denmark) plateauing (rising) again in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, R-eff=1.03, (1.10), at medium levels, with still no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

Finland (and Iceland) remain safe 0.95 (0.75), with very low mortality.

3/22. The United-Kingdom faces epidemic pressure (R-eff=1.0), while still in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more d.

Portugal and Malta in their safety zone (0.96 and 0.41), very low mortality.

UK 52%, Port 30%, Malta 61% pop received 1 dose.

4/22. Ireland is plateauing just above its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.0), with low level of mortality, for 7 more days.

Switzerland is landing (0.89), from medium levels of activity, with very low mortality.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1393548875626131460?s=20

(New forecast for Swiss cantons)

5/22. Poland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.71), close to reach it, and decreasing in mortality from high levels , for 7 more days.

Bosnia-Herzegovina (0.71), Hungary (0.66)/Bulgaria (0.75) landed, with very high/high mortality.

6/22. Germany is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.73), close to reach it, decreasing from high mortality.
35% received 1 dose.

Austria (0.74) is rapidly landing in its safety zone, close to reach it, decreasing in mortality from medium level.

7/22. France is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.82), from medium levels, decreasing in mortality from high level, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1393488854162812928?s=20

(New forecast for French Régions)
Belgium (0.99), NL (0.92) plateauing at high level, with high mortality.

8/22. Czechia (and Slovakia) are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, R-eff=0.78 (0.88), close to reach them, decreasing in mortality from (very) high levels, for 7 more days.

Serbia (0.77) landing, high mortality.
Slovenia (0.79) landing, medium mortality.

9/22. Italy (and Spain) are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zone, R-eff=0.80; (0.84), from medium levels of activity, decreasing (plateauing) in mortality, from high (at medium) levels, for 7 more days.

10/22. Greece is plateauing at high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), decreasing in mortality from very high levels, for 7 more days.

Turkey (0.59)/Cyprus (0.63), Croatia (0.72) rapidly landing from medium levels, with high/high, very high mortality.

11/22. Tunisia is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, (R-eff=0.78), close to reaching it, and is decreasing in mortality from high levels, for 7 more days.

Morocco (0.72) is in its safety zone, with very low levels of mortality.

12/22. Namibia is experiencing an increase in its epidemic activity, leaving its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.09), plateauing at medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/22. South Africa is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), leaving its safety zone (which was secured since mid-February), and increasing in mortality at medium levels, for 7 more days.

14/22. Iran is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), from medium levels, and decreasing in mortality from high levels, for 7 more d.

UAE (0.92), Iraq (0.85), Oman (0.80), Qatar (0.68) are all landing from medium levels.

Israel (0.57), Jordan (0.61) green zone.

15/22. Russia is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), just above its safety zone, and plateauing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.
In RU 9% received 1 dose.

Ukraine (0.89) is landing, at medium level, decreasing in mortality from very high level.

16/22. Asian Champions -
Japan (Thailand) are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activ, R-eff=1.05 (1.01), just above (within) their safety zones, (very) low mortality, for 7 more days.

China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Singapore under pressure, but safe, no expectd death #ZeroCovid.

17/22. India seems to take over control of its new #COVID19 contaminations (R-eff=0.97), at high levels, increasing in mortality, at high levels, for 7 more d.

Maldives (1.36), Seychelles (1.24) surge.
Nepal (1.19), Malaysia (1.14) rise.
PAK (0.88), Bangl (0.78) safe.

18/22. Canada is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), from medium levels, while plateauing in mortality at medium level, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/KristenN_06/status/1393185516145848324?s=20

(Forecast for 5 provinces)

Nova Scotia (R-eff=1.13, rise).
New Brunswick in #ZeroCovid.

19/22. The USA are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), close to reaching it, while plateauing in mortality at medium level, for 7 more d.
46% received 1 dose.

Forecast for states:

https://twitter.com/KristenN_06/status/1393195388488802307?s=20

Mexico (0.9) low activity, medium mortality.

20/22. Brazil is plateauing at high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), while decreasing in mortality from very high levels, for 7 more days.

Colombia (1.06)/Argentina (1.01), Uruguay (1.04) high levels of activity, very high/alarming levels of mortality.

21/22. Chile is plateauing at high level of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), and plateauing in mortality at high level too, for 7 more days.
In Chile, 46% received 1 dose.

Peru (0.91)/Paraguay (1.01) landing from medium/plateauing at high levels, very high mortality.

22/22. Pacific champions -
Australia (and New Zealand) will both remain in their #COVID19 safety zone, with no expected death, for 7 more days.
In AUS 1% (March 13), NZ 5.6% received 1 dose.
Both countries are experiencing successful #ZeroCovid strategy.

23/22.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/22.
"Champion" country: mortality < 20 cumulative deaths/100K pop

Very low: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low < 0.10
0.10 < Medium < 0.20
0.20 < High < 0.50
Very high > 0.50
Alarming > 1.0
Very alarming > 3.0
Read also:
@KristenN_06
& @elisa_manetti
...