Tweet

Ophir Gottlieb

16 May, 11 tweets, 3 min read

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 1.

$SHOP In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 2.85B.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $4.4B.

In one year, estimates are up 54%.

/1

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 2.

$ROKU In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 2.08B.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $2.57B.

In one year, estimates are up 24%.

/2

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 3.

$ZM In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 866M.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $2.6B.

In one year, estimates are up 200%.

/3

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 4.

$PINS In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 1.97B.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $2.57B.

In one year, estimates are up 30%.

/4

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 5.

$CRWD In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 682M.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $874M.

In one year, estimates are up 28%.

/5

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 6.

$DDOG In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 656.5M

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $833.7M

In one year, estimates are up 27%.

/6

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 7.

$TWLO In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 1.84B.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $2.43B.

In one year, estimates are up 32%.

/7

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 8.

$NET In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 492.7M.

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $592.8M

In one year, estimates are up 20%.

/8

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 9.

$PTON In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 2.21B

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $4.1B.

In one year, estimates are up 86%.

/9

A thread

The Digital Transformation due to COVID was permanent.

Example 10

$FIVN In January of 2020, the consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was 435.8M

... 2020 happened...

The consensus estimate for 2021 revenue is now $549.1M

In one year, estimates are up 26%

/10

It's not a COVID thing, it's a forever thing.

For more about growth companies, but with a finer toothed comb, check us at CML Pro
bit.ly/CMLPro

11/11

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

13 May

$FTCH

* Revenue: $485M versus $458.79M
* EBITDA: -$19M versus -$20.2M

/1

$FTCH

* Revenue: $485M versus $458.79M
* EPS: -$0.22 vs -$0.26
* EBITDA: -$19M versus -$20.2M

/2

$FTCH

Upgrades Digital Platform GMV outlook for full year 2021

/3

Read 11 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

13 May

@BigCommerce

A thread on @BigCommerce

$BIGC

* Revenue: $46.7M (up 41% yoy) versus analyst expectations of $42.2M

The highest estimate of the ten covering analysts was for $42.70M.

* Total ARR: $196.3M, up 43%.

* Adjusted EPS: -$0.04 versus -$0.11.

/1

@BigCommerce

$BIGC @BigCommerce

* Next Q Revenue Guide: $46.7M versus $45.62M.

* Full Year Revenue Guide: $197.5 versus $190.68M.

The highest estimate of the ten analysts out there was for $192 million.

/2

$BIGC

* Fourth consecutive year of accelerating top line growth and now we are over 40%.

* Revenue growth accelerating: 41% growth for Q1 2021 versus 36% for Q1 2020.

* But so too are these metrics:

...

/3

Read 8 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

11 May

$JMIA
All I care about:

* Market place revenue +6%
* Active accounts +7%
* Advertising revenue +35%
* Gross profit +11%
* Jumia Pay TPV +21%

- And -

* Fullfilment exp - 11%
* S&A exp -9%
* T&C exp -4%
* G&A -18%

- Meaning -
* Net loss from ops shrank 23%

1/2

$JMIA

First party revenue was taken down by 35% and they want it down 100%.
It's the first party revenue purposeful reduction that has the rest looking bad.

If this didn't happen, it was a problem.

Now the CEO has finally said we are finally able to go after growth.

/2

$JMIA

With 560M EUR in cash (88M in Apr), this is a $1.5B EV investment in Africa’s e-commerce, fintech, logistics, advertising, food delivery.

This story is unfolding as it should.

Cut costs, turn margins positive, raise funds, then grow.

'Then grow' is now up per CEO.

Read 9 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

6 May

1/n

$ROKU

* Q1 EPS $0.54 Beats $(0.15) Estimate
* Sales $574.18M Beat $490.56M Estimate

2/n

$ROKU

Roku Q1 Adj. EBITDA $125.948M vs Adj. EBITDA Loss $16.312M In Same Qtr. Last Year

3/n

$ROKU

Guidance:

Roku Sees Q2 2021 Revs $610M-$620M Vs $549.4M Est

Read 11 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

5 May

1/n

$FSLY

* Revenue: $85M vs $85.18M analysts

2021 Full Year guidance
* $385M vs $377M

2/n

$FSLY

CORRECTION ON EPS

* Revenue: $85M vs $85.18M analysts
* EPS: -$0.12 vs -$0.10 (prev wrote -$0.06)

2021 Full Year guidance
* Revenue: $385M vs $377M
* EPS: -$0.39 vs -$0.40

6/n

$FSLY

Actually there is a lot in the letter to shareholders, like this:

Revenue would have been $86.5M which would have been a beat if not for a write down from SS.

Also...

Read 4 tweets

Ophir Gottlieb

@OphirGottlieb

30 Apr

A thread

$ROKU

* Three years ago today, consensus analyst estimate for 2021 revenue was $1.5B.

* Today it is $2.6B, fully 73% higher.

COVID didn't "pull forward" growth that will "revert."

It changed the world permanently.

/1

A 'scan' for growth can leave you knowing 10% thinking you know 90%.

It happens to all of us.

It takes work to be a stock picker.

It takes a willingness to sit in an underappreciated stock where 'underappreciated' is code for bad returns...

... until they aren't.

/2

I call this patience 'perspective,' but w/e. It's all the same thing.

Either you have it or you do not.

Charlie Munger said it well (image).

Morgan Housel said it well too:

The Agony of High Returns:
fool.com/investing/gene…

/3

Read 4 tweets

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