Share this page!

Maybe Scrolly?
menaka doshi Profile picture
Twitter logo
16 May, 10 tweets, 5 min read
#VaccineStats All You Need To Know

Current domestic vaccine production capacity estimated at 8.5 crore doses.

To rise to 16.7 crore in July with the addition of Sputnik V supply.

As per the centre’s affidavit filed with SC.

Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
States were asked to procure vaccines only starting May 1.

To vaccinate 18 to 44-year-olds.

Total domestic production in May-July
33.7 crore doses

Centre order: 17.68 crore

States orders: 16 crore
- to get 2 crore in May

Read more: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Assume states & pvt hospitals get rest 14 cr doses by mid-Aug.

So far 40 lakh people in 18-44 group have got 1 dose

Target pop: 60 cr

Doses needed: 120 cr
May - mid-Aug: 16 cr

*Imports extra
Dr. Reddy's Sputnik: 25 cr doses. Supply timeline unclear

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
The 44+, HCW, FLW group is in a better place.

Target pop: 30 cr people
Doses needed: 60 cr

Vaccination for them started in Jan.

Jan - Apr the centre has been the only procurer in India.

Here's how the centre's order data stacks up.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
So, for 45+, HCW, FLW group

Eligible Population: Approx. 30 cr people Both Doses Received: 4.05
1 or 2 doses left: 25.94 cr

Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
In short...

Based on domestic production estimates as centre does not intend to import.

By late August — there will still be 7.87 crore people in this cohort of 30 crore that may not have received a single dose.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
This is all based on central government data via ministry decks and affidavit.

It is contingent on domestic capacity expansion at SII and BB as estimated.

It does not factor in imports for the 18-44 group cause

- tough to estimate
- global vaccine shortage
Health ministry claims vaccine supply will rise substantially in Aug - Dec due to new/expanded capacities.

Their estimate
Aug - Dec: 200 crore doses

*Imports extra

Looks very optimistic.
Hope it happens.
In summary...

18-44
Total pop: 60 cr people
By mid-Aug: 16 cr people may get one dose

*Imports will raise that number

Read 👇 bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…

45+
Total pop: 30 cr people
By mid-Aug: 22 cr people may have got atleast one dose

Read 👇
bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
PS: Few known risks at play here.

Capacity expansion works to plan (std project risks)

Production works to plan (raw materials etc)

Distribution happens efficiently (last mile etc)

These are only estimates.

And yes, some would say these are probably best case estimates.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with menaka doshi

menaka doshi Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @menakadoshi

menaka doshi Profile picture
10 May
Target population of18-44 year olds is approx 60 crore. Total jabs needed =120 crore.

Today India vaccinated in that category a grand total of
5,18,479 people.

At this rate....
Just to be clear - the point is the slow pace. Not whether we need to vaccinate all or 80% or 50% of the target group.

Pick any % and do the math. You want to vaccinate only 50%. Fine. That's 60 crore jabs.

Still we are doing just over 5 lakh a day.

#SupplySupplySupply
Here's the supply picture for 45+ (vaccines procured by centre)

States have a somewhat higher balance now.
UP and Gujarat leading.
TN and Maharashtra behind them.

Based on this WB and Kerala have exhausted supplies - among the 7 states to receive central supplies soon.
Read 8 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
3 May
26 crore doses = 13 crore people.
Of which 11 crore doses will come over next few months.

Estimated population of 45+ and front line workers etc is 28-30 crore.
So far Bharat Biotech has been small % of supply.
Not for a moment suggesting the producers are to blame.

Just looking at the data.
Read 6 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
27 Apr
By the time I'm out of observation it'll have been over 4 hours to get vaccinated.

Some tips

Carry a small umbrella. If a hospital has supplies there will be long lines. Mostly on the road or in unsheltered compounds. It's hot. I reached before 9 and stood in line till noon.
Carry a water bottle. Maybe even a sandwich or some dry fruit if you have senior citizens with you.

Many hospitals are providing wheelchairs for the aged but obviously in limited quantity.

Light clothing, face wipes, hand sanitizer will help you keep your sanity in the sun.
I had to visit two hospitals before a family friend alerted that the hospital she was in had vaccine supplies.
So network with friends and family as the supply situation is very fluid.
Read 9 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
24 Apr
The centre's phase 3 vaccine policy allows participation of states and private sector in procurement and delivery of vaccines.

Will this lead to an acceleration of the vaccination programme?

Or does it pass the buck to states, private entities and citizens?

Quick thread...
Former health secretary @sujakrao
says this centre-buys-some- states-buy-some approach will cause more chaos.

It's "preposterous", she says.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
The new policy raises these questions

- Who will vaccinate whom?
- Who will supply vaccines?
- What about the costs?
- And how long will it take to vaccinate India?

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Read 15 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
15 Apr
Serum Institute needs Rs 3,000 crore to add vaccine capacity.

There's an easy fix to this if the govt won't help (though why it won't is baffling)

Just allow companies to donate to new vaccine facilities under CSR.

Can be held via separate subsidiary, run on non profit basis?
This is what the Top 10 company spends on CSR were in FY20.

Let's assume numbers are smaller for FY21.

Yet, 3,000 crore is not an inconceivable amount.

Give them a special tax deduction for it if needed. A one time thing.
Why just Serum? Let a few more capacities be identified, based on company track record and approvals.

It cannot be that India can't come up with a few thousand crores to overcome this pandemic.

If govt won't (I have no idea what PM Cares does) then allow private sector to fund.
Read 12 tweets
menaka doshi Profile picture
13 Apr
Maharashtra tightens restrictions but with more exceptions than last time.

Public transport will function for all essential services.

Hotels/restaurants/street vendors can function only for home delivery.

All grocery and food stores can stay open from 7am to 8pm. ImageImageImageImage
Public transport will function in Maharashtra but with restrictions. Image
Restrictions on manufacturing sector in Maharashtra ... With several relaxations versus last year. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @menakadoshi has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @menakadoshi!

Read all threads by @menakadoshi

:(