Sridhar V Profile picture
17 May, 11 tweets, 3 min read
THREAD
On why the argument that India ought to have vaccinated its "own" people before supplying other countries is misplaced for several reasons. First, the vaccine manufactured by SII is subject to conditions from original funders (not GoI), Covax, the multilateral facility.
2. These orders pre-date the GoI's orders both in time and qty. The Covax facility provided funding to AstraZeneca/SII conditional on supplies, so there are contractual obligations. It is another matter that the NaMo Govt tried use it to fly the Vishwaguru flag.
3. There is simply no way SII’s obligations could have been avoided. So far, about 180 million doses have been delivered in India; about 66 m doses have been exported. Significantly, this 1/3 ratio (roughly) may be the division of supplies between domestic and exports in future
4. Of course, this may not apply to Covaxin, which is not part of the Covax regime. In Aug 2020, 5 months BEFORE the NaMo Govt placed its first order with SII (piddly 11 m doses), Covax signed an agreement with SII for 100 m doses. In Sept 2020 this was increased to 200 m doses.
5. SII promised to “prioritise” supplies to Covax, in parallel to domestic commitments it may have had. It had none then! SII received $300 m to “derisk” its operations and build capacity.
5. SII promised to “prioritise” supplies to Covax, in parallel to domestic commitments it may have had. It had none then! SII received $300 m to “derisk” its operations and build capacity.
6. The vaccine nationalism argument only deflects attention from the real problem — that the NaMo Govt has miserably failed to harness the needed vaccine capacity to defend the people of the country in the pandemic.
7. This includes reviving other possible capacities, including the PSU capacities that could have been re-purposed, IF only it had acted in time and with purpose.
8. A notable example of this wanton neglect is the utter unwillingness to revive the Integrated Vaccine Complex (near Chennai), built at substantial cost to the exchequer, but which has remained idle. Nationalism can begin from here. END
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More from @sritara

12 May
THREAD
1. On Serum Institute of India, which is among the highest profit margins in India, among companies with a turnover of over Rs. 5,000 crores (h/t @AnilKSood5 )
SII’s operating margin (operating profit/turnover) has NEVER fallen below 50 per cent ever since fiscal 2012!
2. SII is not a very large company - its total sales (2020) was just a little less than Rs. 6,000 crores. In comparison Tata Steel’s turnover was 1.4 lakh crores! But what is striking is its strike rate — its profit/turnover ratio.
3. In fact its average net profit margin (net profit/turnover) in the last decade has been about 44 %. Now, having enjoyed that kind of normal profit, one can sympathise with Poonawala when says he would like to make super profits!
Read 5 tweets
11 May
THREAD
1. Here is an example of an external agency providing damage limitation services to the NaMo regime, which is struggling to explain its disastrous vaccination policy.
orfonline.org/expert-speak/n…
2. Essentially, it ticks all the right boxes by extolling the virtues of the “largest” vaccination drive without neither respect for facts on the ground nor for the scale of the task at the hand of the Govt.
3. Instead, it asks that public “expectations” of a quick and comprehensive rollout should be “managed” and “toned down”. Now, that sounds sinister, doesn’t it? Basically, it says universal rollout of the vaccine is off the table.
Read 10 tweets
10 May
THREAD

On why there is no light at the end of India's vaccine tunnel.
1. The affidavit filed by the Centre in the SC today states (h/t livelaw.com)
The Centre says that the current total monthly capacities of the three current vaccine suppliers is 85.03 m doses.
2. What does this imply for the ongoing vaccination drive?
Breaking capacities down to total daily doses enables enables comparison with what we need and where we stand. Daily capacities (million doses):
SII - 2.17 m
BBIL - 0.67 m
Sputnik - 0.01 m
Total - 2.85 m
3. Compare this to the vaccination rates in early April when the 7-day moving avg peaked at about 3.7 m doses per day. The shortfall NOW is about 25 %.
Read 9 tweets
2 May
India's Vaccine Baron Adar Poonawala says SII's capacity will
⬆️ from 60-70 m/month to 100 m/month (3m/day) by July. India needs at least 7m/day to cover 18+ popn within 2021. This wide gap is what gives the monopoly scope for hiking prices. ft.com/content/017846…
Poonawala, shifty as always, now takes the risky route of blaming the NaMo Govt for taking "it easy" and for being being complacent. "There were no orders," he reveals and says that SII was not expected to produce more than 1 billion doses/yr. Clearly this fiasco is a JV.
Poonawala says the NaMo Govt only ordered for 21 m doses for delivery by Feb (about 7-10 days supply at current vaccination rates!). The next order, for 110m only came in March, when the wave was on the. verge of taking off.
Read 5 tweets
21 Apr
THREAD - On the dangerous Indian free market approach to vaccination
1. This is about the wishful fantasies of free market warriors about vaccines, who welcome SSI’s decision on a three-tier price structure - 150/dose for Centre, 400 for states and 600 for pet hospitals.
2. First and foremost, this is by no means a “free market” for vaccines. There is heavy intervention by way at every stage, including in development of the vaccine, its distribution and lastly in terms of orders placed, which made production possible in the first place.
3. IOWs SSI or BB cannot by any means plug the familiar claim that they have developed and therefore need to be compensated. More imp, the vaccine is unlike any other “good” - it is a matter of life and death for all, irrespective of the purchasing power of the “consumer”.
Read 18 tweets
19 Apr
THREAD On the latest announcement on vaccines - 1. A disastrous course that will deter adoption, increase hesitancy and drive prices out of the reach of beleaguered states and people who need it most. All in the name of being market friendly
2. Did you notice the main ploy in the Phase 3 is that half the supplies will be based on market prices, delivered to state governments? The Centre will get the other half of the supplies at the fixed rate contract, leaving the other half for private profit gouging.
3. This will significantly depress vaccine adoption, especially among the high-risk groups. This also worsens India's vaccine problem by adding another dimension.
Read 11 tweets

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