Tweet

Dr Giridhara R Babu

17 May, 8 tweets, 3 min read

SMALLER DISTRICTS NEED MORE ATTENTION & RESOURCES:

Current actions are inadequate in smaller districts.

-100% surge in over 50+ Districts in 30 days

Monthly Growth rate

-TAPI (GJ): 180%
-Kodagu (KA): 204%,
-Mansa (PJ) 211%

Adequate & Timely Testing is the ONLY solution
1/n

Cost of Poor Testing

In Kodagu, there is 100% increase in mortality. It had 73 deaths on 14th April.

Mahendragarh had only 22 death, in a matter of 4 weeks, it has gone up 78. 3.5 fold increase.

2 of N

In 1 month, COVID cases has surged by 70%, last week it has grown by Kodagu, 80% of India's Coffee is grown here.

It has less population of 7 Lakh.

It had active cases of 164 last month, today it has 5178.

3 of N

Positivity is directly related to testing. When the testing is inadequate, positive cases will increase in higher proportion to the testing. India witnessed this scenario during Apr – Sept 2020.

@jeevanrakshaa

Data analysis from @jeevanrakshaa
During Sep – Dec, India’s average tests / day was >1 Mn.
Average number of COVID cases/ day declined from 87,000 to 26,000.
- Speed of testing faster than spread of virus in given period
-In subsequent period, sharp decline in active cases.

Goa & Delhi has weakest Containment: Highest infected people per million population.
Goa it is 76K people / Mn
Delhi 71414 people / Mn
EAG States: Chattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan have challenges to contain
North-Eastern States: Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, & Nagaland
6/N

States with Incremental New Deaths Per Million Population (11 Apr - 10 May)

Maharashtra had highest increase.

It is a function of better reporting and sudden surge resulting in lower access to healthcare. HP, PJ, CG, UK, JH are seeing increased death per million.

7 of N

@Mysore_Sanjeev

Active Cases: have shot-up in 30 days in many districts beyond the state capitals.

Sharing these brilliant analysis done by @Mysore_Sanjeev @jeevanrakshaa is to step up resources and ensure that we can save as many lives as possible in these areas.

https://twitter.com/Mysore_Sanjeev/status/1394245902458527763?s=20

8/N

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More from @epigiri

Dr Giridhara R Babu

@epigiri

4 May

Each mohalla clinic, UPHC or any building belonging to the urban local bodies can be turned into Jeevavayu centres to provide oxygen for the needy. People should be able to undergo triage here; those with distress can receive O2 till they get admission or get well & return home.

Many states are saying there is no shortage of oxygen. Why not have more outlets to serve. It is heartbreaking to see people gasping for breath because we are failing to solve the logistics of oxygen distribution.

Fix it, take oxygen nearer to homes and communities.

In a country where ice creams, chilled coke & chips reach every Galli and village, it is simply astonishing to believe that the industry cannot help in solving the logistic crisis of oxygen distribution.

How many Govts have reached out to the industry for help or partnership?

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Dr Giridhara R Babu

@epigiri

4 May

India’s reproductive number is 1.32.
Assam: RT >2
Eleven(11) states have RT between 1.5 and 2.

1 of N

Highest number of positive cases was reported on 30th April 2021 with 4,020,14 cases, 293 Cases per million. Highest number of deaths was recorded on 1st May 2021 with 3684 deaths reported, 2.6 deaths per million; a test positivity rate of 21% has been reported in India.
2 of N

Epi-curve and RT for India
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Dr Giridhara R Babu

@epigiri

3 May

What is needed now?
Multiple Temporary hospitals providing TIMELY oxygen supplementation to as many people with mild respiratory distress (poor oxygen saturation) to save many lives. Otherwise, most of them go into severe distress and it becomes that much difficult to help.
1ofN

-Use any building to place beds or rapidly construct.
- Have the facilities for triage, isolation
- Oxygen saves lives, have lots of it
- Engage as many health care workers, students & volunteers. Provide them honorarium
- Have many ambulances ready to refer immediately

2 of N

Most people with severe distress will occupy ICU beds for many days. ICU beds are limited, More people with mild oxygen insufficiency will deteriorate further due to lack of oxygen & are at risk of dying. This vicious cycle has to be broken by temporary hospitals + oxygen.
3 of N

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Dr Giridhara R Babu

@epigiri

1 May

INSACOG researchers first detected B.1.617, which is now known as the Indian variant of the virus, as early as February, Ajay Parida, director of the state-run Institute of Life Sciences and a member of INSACOG, told Reuters.

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
1 of N

@Director_NCDC

INSACOG shared its findings with the health ministry’s @Director_NCDC before March 10, warning that infections could quickly increase in parts of the country. The findings were then passed on to the Indian health ministry, this person said.
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INSACOG's initial draft media statement for the health ministry included that the new Indian variant had two significant mutations, and it had been traced in 15% to 20% of samples from Maharashtra, India's worst-affected state.
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