Thread: This is the most wrongheaded analysis of the current Israel-Hamas conflict, arguing that being able to defend against terrorism somehow makes conflicts longer.
It shows zero understanding of the need to have security against terrorism. Clearly most other societies have things like airport security, is the argument that having airport security after 9/11 was bad because it saved lives and left little incentive for a deal with Al Qaeda?
Second it ignored historic fact. Israel's conflicts with Hamas are not worse today because of Iron Dome...in fact casualties are LESS and conflicts are SHORTER after Iron Dome was invented.
Consider the fact that the 2009 conflict with Gaza was horrific. Precisely because large volume of rocket fire necessitates a ground invasion, and lack of time to plan precision strikes means far more people are killed on both sides.
But no need to go back to 2009, before Iron Dome. Let's go back to the Second Intifada. Israel had no Iron Dome. So by logic that conflict should have been quick and low casualties. In fact thousands were killed and there was no "incentive" for a solution.
The logic in the West that posits that large numbers of dead from terror somehow creates "incentive" for peace is nonsense. Large numbers killed by terror lead to massive wars and no peace. Having defense systems to stop terror can lead to some forms of peace.
Ironically western countries, the same ones where this "analysis" is made, know this. That's why they have huge levels of security. And in past wars when the homeland was under threat, they didn't just dismantle defenses in order to let their populations suffer.
Under the logic that Iron Dome prolongs the conflict...these people would have argued that the Royal Air Force shoudn't have defended London during the Battle of Britain because it might "prolong" the war and reduce incentive for "peace" with Nazi Germany. Really?
Having early warning systems, radar, air defense, security, against indiscriminate terror, whether rockets or suicide bombers...is essential to showing terror organizations, or groups, or states like Nazi Germany, that they can't win. You don't win by having more casualties.
No one ever won a war by having more casualties. No one ever brought peace by having a higher death toll. You have peace when the enemy also wants peace. When the enemy wants to fire thousands of rockets, so then you build an air defense system to stop them.
Israel's Iron Dome has literally save THOUSANDS of lives in Gaza by making it so Israel doesn't need to respond to every Hamas rocket and that if it responds it can do so with slow, plodding precision and warnings. Not a perfect strategy, but better than invasions.
The moronic argument that Israel shouldn't have Iron Dome is an argument for having Israeli tanks in the center of Gaza. It's a disingenuous argument, that seeks to encourage more war under the guise that war is peace...that war is an "incentive"...which it isn't.
Peace was brought with Egypt and Israel when Egypt realized it would NOT get what it wanted through war...and could GET IT through peace. If Israel had simply dismantled its defenses in the 1970s that wouldn't have brought peace.
You can't bomb your way to peace. Consider how Nixon tried to break the North Vietnamese with his bombing campaigns. In the end of course it didn't work, North Vietnam rolled into Saigon.
Why would you advocate removing Iron Dome from the table, except if you're a supporter of endless war and massive bombing and invasions? Iron Dome prevents invasion. It saves lives. It gives time for thought and ceasefires. It keeps the public from pushing for more war.
If defenses could prevent all terror attacks or all attacks of an enemy, it would force the enemy to have peace. Defensive weapons like Iron Dome don't win wars either. But they make peaceful coexistence more likely.
The onus is on Hamas to opt for the peace and coexistence. It is a powerful terror statelet. But it is pushed by Iran to test Israel's defenses for Hezbollah. It openly says it tried to test Iron Dome and Iran says it is watching. That's the real story of Iron Dome.

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More from @sfrantzman

18 May
Thread: Every once in a while when I tweet critique of Ankara I get replies about how Israel supported Ankara. This is not accurate since 2010. Israel has had terrible relations with the regime in Ankara for a decade. And Israel has openly opposed its policies.
There is one strange exception (and I don't mean trade, trade is normal). The exception is a small group of pro-Ankara voices in the US who are also pro-Israel and have sought to muddy the waters, pretending there is some "reconciliation" or Ankara is "against Iran".
It may be true that Turkey and Israel 20 years ago had good relations. Those relations led to bad bedfellows, like some pro-Israel folk going to bat for Ankara against recognition of the Armenian genocide. It also led to other denials about the nature of Ankara's new regime.
Read 7 tweets
18 May
Will Turkey lead a new axis of far right religious extremist regimes against Israel? Will the Ankara DC Lobby that did interference for the war on Armenia and the mercenaries in Libya and Syria help Ankara or be too afraid since they worked so long to also be against Iran 🤔
One of the largest foreign policies lies and propaganda spread in recent time is the one that tried to sell us that Ankara’s regime is “against Iran”...well look...Iran is part of the alliance with Turkey. We were lied to, including in major publications by the Ankara Lobby
They tried to sell us, partly in order to please the Trump admin into giving Ankara an ethnic cleansing blank check...that Ankara is “geopolitics” against Iran...it is not.
Read 5 tweets
18 May
By the way (עמק המעיינות) is the same area that the drone flown by Iran from T-4 in February 2018 entered Israeli airspace, at the time an Apache shot it down. Today another drone shot down there as well. REMEMBER: reuters.com/article/instan…
IDF: Earlier this morning, a UAV approaching the Israeli border in the Emek HaMaayanot area was intercepted after being monitored by the Israeli Air Force.
The UAV fragments were collected by security forces.
Read 4 tweets
17 May
Thread: Israel worked hard to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza as it has increasingly done since 2014; but something has changed a bit over the last years. Israel’s attempt to manage the conflict with Hamas led to a desire for not having casualties among low level Hamas members
Israel says that it works hard, often with a lot of time invested in warning people to leave buildings before they are struck, which means Hamas members leave too. Israel says it does everything it can to avoid hurting civilians.
But the time taken to evacuate buildings means civilians and Hamas members evacuate. What’s strange is that there are mistakes where civilians are hit. It does appear Israel has worked hard to not have large numbers of militant casualties also.
Read 7 tweets
15 May
Want to know Iran's plan for the Hamas war on Israel. First of all the short article about IRGC Quds Force head Email Ghaani speaking with Hamas leader Haniyeh is one indication: tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/0…
However the BIG news is this article at Tasnim revealing the Iran war plan against Israel air defenses "therefore in the event of a multi-front war, this system will not be able to respond to rocket and missile attacks." tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/0…
This is no small report above, this is a sophisticated explanation of how Iran sees the war Hamas launched on May 10. Iran is testing Israel and it is using Hamas to do this. This is not just some "by chance" Hamas strikes here and there. This is a sophisticated war plan.
Read 4 tweets
15 May
...the whole idea of purposely destroying a large building where the international media are...so they can all film it...how exactly does it hurt Hamas and help Israel...or is the goal of Israel's leaders just to kind of erode Israel's image internationally. Unclear.
...it seems to me Hamas has continued to rain down rockets on Tel Aviv...and Israel's "answer" is to blow up some building so it can be filmed...like that doesn't stop the rocket fire...
Read 6 tweets

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