An update on vaccination in the UK.
Tl:DR - Vaccination rates are on the rise again.
2/3 of adult population have had a first dose, 1/3 a second dose.
Disparity in uptake still exists between most and least deprived areas.
1/9
Firstly, to the raw numbers.
The number of doses has picked up following the May Bank Holiday dip.
Still primarily second doses (orange) being given to keep pace with first doses (blue) 12 weeks earlier.
2/9
We have now given first doses to almost 2/3 of the adult population and second doses to over 1/3.
This is already having a tremendous impact with PHE suggesting they have saved over 12,000 lives in England alone.
reuters.com/world/uk/nearl…
3/9
Wales is surging ahead with first dose delivery (at 74.8%), but has been caught up by the other three nations (who seem to be moving in lockstep) for second dose delivery.
4/9
First dose rates in over 50s are all above 90% with people in their 40s (still being offered first doses) at 75%.
Vaccination was opened up this week to under 38-39 year-olds, so we should start to see more significant proportions of under 40s getting vaccinated.
5/9
In over 80s, second doses (90%) are now behind first doses from12 weeks ago (93%) indicating that a small proportion of people are not taking up their second dose.
6/9
Looking regionally for the over 80s, second dose coverage is lowest in London (as is first dose coverage).
Its also interesting to note that second dose uptake as a proportion of first dose uptake is short of 100% for all regions but lowest in London.
7/9
In previous weeks we have seen disparities in uptake by deprivation with the least deprived demographics having higher uptake than the most deprived.
A similar trend is true for people taking up a second dose as a proportion of those who had first dose.
8/9
Overall though, the vaccine programme is going really well and we are meeting Test 1:
"The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully."
ahead of the next stage of the Roadmap on Monday 17th.
9/9
As always, huge thanks to Bob Hawkins for his help with preparing the charts.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

14 May
An update on variants.

Remember the four tests for proceeding with the Roadmap?
Test 4 is "Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."
The rise in B1617.2 makes it debatable whether we are still meeting this fourth test.
A thread.
1/15
This data is from the COVID genomics UK consortium (COG) cogconsortium.uk
It shows cumulative sequenced cases of 3 variants of concern (VOCs) P1 ("Brazil"), B13151 ("South Africa") and B1617 ("India").
Cases of the Indian variant have increased significantly recently.
2/15
OK, but cumulative plots always make numbers look larger.
Well, this chart shows cases sequenced each week. "South Africa", "Brazil" and B1617.1 ("India 1") are all staying roughly constant.
B1617.2 ("India 2") looks to be growing exponentially.
3/15
Read 15 tweets
14 May
A short thread on the latest data on SCHOOLS and numbers of cases in different age brackets as we prepare to dispense with facemask on Monday.
TL;DR Cases in school age children are relatively flat, but the number of respiratory outbreaks recorded by PHE is increasing.
1/8
As usual, I will preface the thread by looking at numbers of lateral flow tests, which have remained relatively flat for the last few weeks.
This suggests any significant rises or falls we see in the case data probably reflect genuine rises or falls not changes in testing.
2/8
Cases in over 60s (brown) and 20-59s (blue) have continued to fall.
Cases in under 20s saw a slight rise when schools went back (possibly testing related) and have been flat or rising since then.
3/8
Read 9 tweets
14 May
A short thread on cases and positivity in the UK

Cases have been coming down in the UK since early January, but last week we bottomed out and this week we have seen small week on week increases (green) in cases, leading to a rise in the 7-day average (black).

1/10
Looking at the 4 nations of the UK, cases have fallen since last week in Northern Ireland, England (slightly) and Wales (marginally), but risen in Scotland.
Wales is down to last September levels, but other nations have a little way to go.

2/10
When we see a rise in cases it makes sense to check positivity (cases detected/tests).
Just looking at PCR test positivity, it seems to be flat across all nations.
Other good news is that positivity rates are low (well below 2% for all nations).

3/10
Read 11 tweets
23 Apr
A short thread on vaccination data:
Rate of vaccination is starting to pick up again after a dip earlier in April.
It's still majority second doses being given to keep pace with the first doses we gave 12 weeks earlier.
1/7
61% of the UK adult population have now had their first dose and 20% their second dose.
2/7
Wales is still ahead with first doses given, while NI lags behind, but the absolute differences in percentages vaccinated are less than 10%.
The relative difference is bigger in second doses with Wales surging ahead early on, but now being pegged back.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
23 Apr
A short thread on variants.
There are a number of cases of variants of concern (VOC) and variants under investigation (VUI) in the UK.
Here I will focus on just four of the most concerning:
P1 - Brazil
B1617 - India
B1351 - South Africa
B1525 - (B117 + E484K mutation).

1/13
The three things we are typically worried about with new variants are
1. Do they spread faster?
2. Do they cause more severe disease/death?
3. Can they evade existing immunity?
I've written a little about the interplay of 1. and 2. here: theconversation.com/coronavirus-va…
2/13
B117 (UK) and P1 (Brazil) have been shown to be more transmissible but it's not yet been definitively established for B1617 (India) or B1351 (SA).
B117 has also been shown to be more deadly, but P1 and B1351 are not thought to be and it's to early to tell with B1617.
3/13
Read 13 tweets
23 Apr
A short 🧵on school-age cases.
Firstly to say testing has changed dramatically over the last 6 weeks.
Lateral flow tests shot up prior to the return to schools stayed level for a while and then dropped a little before Easter and have risen since.
1/8
Cases (per 100k) in the under 20s saw big rises upon the return to school in all regions. In fact some cases seemed to stop falling before schools went back consistent with lateral flow tests catching more cases as testing ramped up before the return.
2/8
Drilling down further, roughly the same trend appears in 5-9s, 10-14s and 15-19s.
It wasn't seen in preschool children, but since January they had been attending nursery/pre-school as normal.
So how much of the rise in cases was a result of testing?
Definitely some of it, but...
Read 9 tweets

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