A short thread on the latest data on SCHOOLS and numbers of cases in different age brackets as we prepare to dispense with facemask on Monday.
TL;DR Cases in school age children are relatively flat, but the number of respiratory outbreaks recorded by PHE is increasing.
1/8
TL;DR Cases in school age children are relatively flat, but the number of respiratory outbreaks recorded by PHE is increasing.
1/8
As usual, I will preface the thread by looking at numbers of lateral flow tests, which have remained relatively flat for the last few weeks.
This suggests any significant rises or falls we see in the case data probably reflect genuine rises or falls not changes in testing.
2/8
This suggests any significant rises or falls we see in the case data probably reflect genuine rises or falls not changes in testing.
2/8
Cases in over 60s (brown) and 20-59s (blue) have continued to fall.
Cases in under 20s saw a slight rise when schools went back (possibly testing related) and have been flat or rising since then.
3/8
Cases in under 20s saw a slight rise when schools went back (possibly testing related) and have been flat or rising since then.
3/8
Breaking the under 20s into 5-year age groups, we can see all groups are either flat or rising slightly. Cases in the 15-19 age-range have fallen slightly since reopening, but cases in 10-14 year-olds have risen.
4/8
4/8
PHE data broken down by year group suggests almost all age-ranges have seen small increases over the last 2-3 weeks, but rates are much lower than when schools went back in March, which are in turn much lower than in November/December.
5/8
5/8
Its a similar story for outbreaks of COVID linked to schools.
They are on the rise again since schools went back, but at lower levels than March and much lower than December.
6/8
They are on the rise again since schools went back, but at lower levels than March and much lower than December.
6/8
So cases in schools seem to be flat or increasing slightly overall against a back drop of roughly constant level of infection across the country as a whole.
We will have to monitor the situation closely as measure are relaxed on Monday and face coverings are removed.
7/8
We will have to monitor the situation closely as measure are relaxed on Monday and face coverings are removed.
7/8
Is this is the right time to remove face coverings in school?
You can read our opinion piece in the @bmj_latest on "Whether the government “following the data” on face coverings in schools?"
with @trishgreenhalgh @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee @chrischirp
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You can read our opinion piece in the @bmj_latest on "Whether the government “following the data” on face coverings in schools?"
with @trishgreenhalgh @dgurdasani1 @martinmckee @chrischirp
\ENDS
With thanks, as ever to Bob Hawkins for his help preparing the data.
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